Flemington takes centre stage in Victoria this Saturday, highlighted by the $500,000 Group l Australian Guineas (1600m). Some of the best gallopers Australia has produced have greeted the judge in this race…Zabeel, Mahogany, Flying Spur and in recent years the likes of Apache Cat, Miss Finland and Mosheen. Who will etch their name on to this famous honour roll? We will find out the answer to that question at 4.20PM Saturday afternoon.
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Race One (12:35) : Sports 1000 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horse race here between Eloping (Best Odds: $3.30) and More Radiant. I am going with the race day experience Eloping has, which is vital when racing down the Flemington straight. Her run behind Earthquake was excellent in the Prelude, leading until the 200m mark when the star filly went past her. Back to 1000m should be perfect and draws well.
Big Danger: The betting suggests that More Radiant (Best Odds: $2.70) should spank these. She did beat home Earthquake in a Cranbourne barrier trial without being extended, so that’s the reason for her being crunched in betting. Very difficult for a horse to win on debut down the straight, but there is real confidence in the market to suggest she can do it.
Roughie: Hostwin Pegasus (Best Odds: $16.00) fought on quite well late when a distant second to quality colt Law at Randwick on debut, attempting to lead all the way. The races are getting tougher in Sydney, so coming down to Melbourne will give this youngster a great chance, especially given he is stabled there and would have had plenty of looks at the course.
$250 Eloping Free Bet
Race Two (13:10) : Saintly Handicap (90) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Commanding Time (Best Odds: $4.80) might not have won pretty last week at Caulfield, but you have to remember, that was his second run from a 14 month break, so there should be loads of improvement left in the tank, up in distance and Brad Rawiller gets back on the horse, and from a good gate, he won’t be too far away.
Big Danger: Woakwine (Best Odds: $6.50) has been scratched from an easier race at Morphettville to contest this one, so I like the confidence there with the stable, who have been in sparkling form in recent months. Absolutely spanked them a fortnight back on the Parks track in Adelaide, so I think he deserves a crack here and maps really well.
Roughie: The Big Steel (Best Odds: $7.50) was excellent here a couple of weeks back, attempting to lead all the way when a close third to Are There Any. Maps well also, and should get a great time near the speed.
$250 Commanding Time Free Bet
Race Three (13:45) : Roy Higgins Quality 2600m Form Guide
Back Me: Keen to take on Prince Of Penzance given he was a touch disappointing in the Mornington Cup after getting everything to suit. He might be a jumper, but there is still plenty of zip left in the legs of Macedonian (Best Odds: $14.00), who stormed home from last to miss out in a three way photo finish in the Mornington Cup. Kept up to the mark with a good jumps trial at the Bool last week, and I can only see upside with this bloke, getting back to a bigger track, extra distance and a much fairer racing surface. Happy to take him at around the $13 mark.
Big Danger: Like A Carousel (Best Odds: $5.00) finally got the maiden win out of the way when he spanked a moderate lot under the Moonee Valley lights. He is a stakes class horse, but didn’t know how to win until that effort. He can go right on with it now, be very competitive here, and progress to a race like the Adelaide Cup.
Roughie: Getting close to D-Day for Cooldini (Best Odds: $4.80), who has caught the eye at his last two outings, with the latter being a close up seventh in the Mornington Cup. Gets back to his favourite track, up in distance and Bossy sticks.
$250 Macedonian Free Bet
Race Four (14:25) : Mrs Mac’s Beef Pie Sprint 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky race. If the real You’re So Good (Best Odds: $12.00) turned up here, she’d go very close. Didn’t come up at all during the Spring and raced like a busted you know what. Starting again with her, and from all reports, she is sizzling in her work and looks the best she has since this time last year, which saw her place in the Australian Guineas. I’ll take a gamble and back her each way.
Big Danger: Inclined to put in Elite Elle (Best Odds: $3.10) despite the fact her best efforts have been on wet tracks, not bone dry, which she’ll see here. Class and her excellent fresh form will carry her a long way towards victory here.
Roughie: Miracle To Me (Best Odds: $13.00) was good in the Kevin Hayes behind the low flying Spirits Dance. She sat last and wide, was forced near the car park on the turn and worked to the line nicely late. Goes very well at Flemington and is unbeaten at 1100m as well as being a second up winner.
$250 You’re So Good Free Bet
Race Five (15:00) : Frances Tressaday Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I thought Koonoomoo (Best Odds: $5.50) was good late when a close up sixth in the Mannerism to A Time For Julia, then pulled up a touch distressed due to the heat, so that adds a bit more to her merit. Should get the plum sit just off the pace from the barrier, has the run under her belt and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: At the weights, Floria (Best Odds: $3.60) wins, simple as that. Group l placegetter who capped off a solid Spring with a tough win in the Summoned Stakes. Goes very well fresh and her lone Flemington run was in the Myer when a solid sixth to Red Tracer. That form should hold up well here.
Roughie: Goldslick (Best Odds: $6.00) was enormous first up over this track/distance, sitting three wide with no cover yet still finding the line to run fourth to the impressive Oz debut of Foundry, who Team Williams have a big opinion of, so if that’s indeed the case, then getting back to her own sex here, on the minimum, good barrier and fitter…she’ll be a very tough nut to crack.
$250 Koonoomoo Free Bet
Race Six (15:40) : Tab Rewards Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $3.40). Ran some good races during the Spring, with the key run being a long head second to Boban, who at the time was the best horse in the country. He is an absolute bomb fresh, and if he has at worst held that Boban form here, he should lead and win.
Big Danger: Dany The Fox (Best Odds: $5.50) really came of age during the Spring without winning. His highlights were running very competitive races in Group l company and beaten less than three lengths in each, firstly behind Rebel Dane in the Sir Rupert Clarke and then by Solzhenitsyn in the Toorak. Flies first up and at Flemington.
Roughie: Nine of these are either first up or second up, and the lone horse who is rock hard fit is Our Hand Of Faith (Best Odds: $7.50) for Darren Weir and Damian Lane. Took forever to get past Decircles here last start, and when he did get past, he looked the winner, only to be gunned down late by Foundry. Rises in class, but does have the fitness edge and a beautiful gate.
$250 Strawberry Boy Free Bet
Race Seven (16:20) : Australian Guineas 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a tough race. I have stated for a while now that I think Rock Hero (Best Odds: $21.00) will win a Group l, and I think this might be the one. I thought he was very good at Caulfield in the Autumn Stakes given he was first up and ridden out of his comfort zone, sitting up on the pace. Went to the trials last week at Cranbourne where he sat back, waited and just dashed around them easily to win. That is the way to ride him, and if he can get a drag into the race, along with clear air, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: I still keep coming to the fact that Shamus Award (Best Odds: $5.50) has only won the one race, and that it was gifted to him on a platter. Many are saying that his run was better than Eurozone’s in the Orr, and yes Shamus Award did the donkey work outside Moment Of Change, but he was still disappointing. I think Eurozone has more upside in him given he is heading towards Sydney, so the fact he sprinted so well fresh indicates he has come back in grand order. He should get a lovely run from the barrier, and the stable are very bullish about his prospects.
Roughie: Two best roughies here are Criterion (Best Odds: $14.00) and Teronado, who were both fantastic in the CS Hayes after sitting back in a race dominated by horses close to the tempo. Criterion was giving his rivals weight, ranging from a kilo to 2.5kg. He meets them at level weights now, and shouldn’t be too far away from the speed while Teronado will again get back from the wide draw, but if he gets a drag into the race and is close enough on the turn, he is good enough.
$250 Rock Hero Free Bet
Race Eight (17:00) : ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Tough race to sort out. Going with Office Bearer (Best Odds: $9.50) for the in form Peter Moody stable. Raced well during the early part of the Spring in similar type races. I think coming to Flemington, and the straight course, will really suit, and is another galloper who seems to race best fresh.
Big Danger: Miracles Of Life (Best Odds: $5.50) was the fairytale story this time 12 months ago, winning the Blue Diamond. She hasn’t really hit those dizzy heights since in three runs, but from all reports, she has come back really well, and I think the straight course will be right up her street.
Roughie: Brilliant Bisc (Best Odds: $8.50) ran a solid placing at Caulfield first up behind Shamal Wind, then sat on the speed out wide in the Lightning and was far from disgraced when seventh. Drops big time in class, and if she can get a softer time on the pace, she can certainly be in the money.
$250 Office Bearer Free Bet
Race Nine (17:40) : VRC 150th Celebration Race 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: The other good thing on the card here in Akzar (Best Odds: $2.15). Who would have been thinking that this horse, who was struggling to win at places like Stawell and Traralgon, would be a near odds on favourite for a Flemington race? But the beach life is really working with him, and he is in such a rich vein of form, that he should just take care of these.
Big Danger: Desert Jeuney (Best Odds: $5.00) is unbeaten at distances beyond 1400m, so I am expecting big improvement here. Ordinary first up run at Caulfield before going much better when fifth to Sistine Demon. Jumping from 1400m to 2000m is a slight concern, but the talent and upside is there.
Roughie: $31 for Anagold (Best Odds: $19.00) was a silly price, so at $19 she is probably at her mark. I thought her run in the Carlyon Cup was solid given she was taking on Group l performers and was first up. Had trialled really well prior to that and Bossy, who rode in the trial, jumps back on her.
$250 Akzar Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Six Number 4 Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $3.40)
Next Best: Race Nine Number 4 Akzar (Best Odds: $2.15)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 3 Macedonian (Best Odds: $14.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 10
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 6, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 4
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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