Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday for what is a fab card of racing, highlighted of course by the Group l Black Caviar Lightning (1000m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:30) : The Asian Executive Stakes (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Sharing (Best Odds: $13.00) is a sparingly raced mare who is putting together a tidy little record. She ran over 1200m on the Lakeside course at Sandown a tick over two weeks back where she got back in the run and under Ben Allen, she came with a well timed runt o nab them and draw clear late. Flemington 1400m looks perfect and she will be strong late. Each way all day for me. Would have had Pure Pride clearly on top, but barrier one fresh is a negative, and a big one.
Big Danger: 6 Chiavari (Best Odds: $10.00) had confident market support when racing over 1100m at Caulfield two weeks back against the boys where she got back in the run and wasn’t given much room in the straight so the run was somewhat inconclusive behind Glenrowan Prince. Unknown at 1400m but she is giving the impression as if she will handle it.
Long Shot: 10 Braemar (Best Odds: $7.00) is a well bred mare that has done a really good job since joining the Brendan McCarthy yard. She ran over 1400m at Sandown last Wednesday where she had the charmed run behind the tempo and tried hard but couldn’t reel in Extra Olives, who had it too good on speed. More genuine tempo here should suit and I am confident she can measure up.
Race Two (13:05) : JRA Trophy 1400m:
Back Me: It was D-Day for 3 Duke Of Brunswick (Best Odds: $2.10) over 1400m at Caulfield two weeks ago and thankfully for punters he got the win, aided by an absolute peach from Oliver, to draw clear of Smart Dart late. He has been okay in two runs at Flemington, so the record is better than what it reads, and he finds another very winnable race here.
Big Danger: 1 Charlie Boy (Best Odds: $9.50) produced a pass mark when resuming for the new stable in the Magic Millions Spring behind Target In Sight before closing off strongly late behind Duke Of Brunswick. If he can jump cleanly and sit closer, he’ll be a massive threat and he can definitely turn the tables.
Long Shot: 8 Sadaqa (Best Odds: $7.50) started bolters odds when resuming over 1400m here three weeks ago and despite that, I thought he was a little unlucky not to win given he got held up a couple of times in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. His stats second up as well as the record at Flemington should see him take some beating here.
Race Three (13:40) : Singapore Turf Club Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Smart Dart (Best Odds: $4.40) for me here. He comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m at Caulfield a fortnight back where he had the charmed run near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Duke Of Brunswick. 1400m is a stretch, so back to 1200m is perfect and he draws well for his racing pattern. Keen.
Big Danger: 5 Well Sprung (Best Odds: $8.00) ran a couple of really good races during the Spring, and closed off strongly in the Sir Rupert Clarke. He ersumed over 1000m here in the Kensington where he again got back to near last in the run and finished off his race quite nicely late to run sixth to Tivaci. Good second up record and overall, this isn’t a strong race. He can definitely beat these.
Long Shot: 4 Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $6.00) is a greybeard who hasn’t won for a long time, but is certainly capable of figuring in the finish. He too ran alright during the Spring in some quality events, the best being a close up seventh to Sir Bacchus on Manikato night. Jump outs have been okay and he can sprint well fresh.
Race Four (14:15) : Talindert Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 11 Something Violet (Best Odds: $9.00) had a quiet jump out at Cranbourne prior to debuting at Moonee Valley where she had the charmed run behind the speed and despite taking a little while to wind up, gee she was strong late and really attacked the line to win. Can only see upside from that and stable should always be respected with their youngsters.
Big Danger: 10 Sanadaat (Best Odds: $7.00) trialled well behind Blue Diamond contender Tulip prior to debuting on the Parks track a fortnight back where she had a lovely sit just off the speed and when Duffy pushed the button, she showed a lovely turn of foot and put them away quite quickly. Looks above average and confident she can measure up here.
Long Shot: 6 Platinum (Best Odds: $21.00) resumes here for John O’Shea and Godolphin after debuting at Caulfield in October in the Debutant where he sat back in the run and just stayed there behind Wait For No One, who has run well since, so the form reads okay, and Platinum did appear to trial well at Randwick a couple of weeks back.
Race Five (14:50) : The TAB Vanity 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Legless Veuve (Best Odds: $2.90) has to be enormously respected here off the back of her very good fresh win against the boys in the Manfred (1200m) at Caulfield two weeks back where she sat on speed and looked to travel well in the run throughout before Zahra pushed the button and the filly gave a really good kick when challenged to get the win. Back to her own age/sex now, so she has to rate highly.
Big Danger: 3 Harlow Gold (Best Odds: $3.60) is the class filly of the field that kicks off her prep towards the Australian Oaks. She didn’t win any feature races during the Spring but ran some ripping races, most notably in the Crown Oaks where she chased tearaway leader Lasqueti Spirit and ran second to that filly. Latest jump out was strong and she has a bit on these class wise.
Long Shot: 4 Extra Olives (Best Odds: $5.00) is the hard fit runner that should be respected. She ran over 1400m at Sandown last Wednesday where she led all the way under Ben Thompson, with the young gun giving the filly a charmed ride up front, which won the race for her. Maps well here once again, and with the fitness edge, she’ll give plenty.
Race Six (15:25) : CS Hayes Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: I’m going to give 6 Inside Agent (Best Odds: $12.00) another look here. He resumed in the Manfred (1200m) at Caulfield a fortnight back and it just confirmed my query that he isn’t a Caulfield horse. He handled the turn poorly and just couldn’t get going at all. Back on his home track now and he saved his best for here during the Spring. Each way all day for mine.
Big Danger: 3 Hey Doc (Best Odds: $3.60) sat near the speed first up in the Manfred and he did a really good job to finish as close as he did when running a close up third to the talented filly Legless Veuve. He is a horse who appears more dynamic earlier on in a prep, so I think second up at the Flemington 1400m looks perfect for him and is a clear threat.
Long Shot: 5 Throssell (Best Odds: $26.00) is a talented gelding that resumes for the Ciaron Maher yard. He performed quite well during the Spring before the wheels well and truly fell off and went astray towards the end. He has looked the part in a couple of trials and jump outs, and looks to have come back in really good order.
Race Seven (16:00) : Ascot Racecourse Trophy (84) 2000m:
Back Me: Gee 2 Like A Carousel (Best Odds: $67.00) is racing well this time in. Has really caught the eye in two runs back from a break, the latest coming last Saturday over 1800m at Caulfield where he finished his race off with real purpose to run fifth to Second Bullet. Flemington 2000m looks perfect and he has a stack of upside.
Big Danger: 3 Dodging Bullets (Best Odds: $4.80) was having his first crack at 2000m a fortnight back at Caulfield where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but was nabbed right on the peg by Goodwill. Bit more depth here, but has the run under the belt now at the trip, maps well, draws a soft gate…ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: The drop back in trip should really suit 13 Skulduggery (Best Odds: $9.00). He was at 2400m last time out at Caulfield where he just wasn’t suited by the slow tempo and I think he isn’t a 2400m when finishing down the track behind Chance To Dance, who ran well last night. Back here suits, on the minimum and Dunn remains on.
Race Eight (16:45) : Black Caviar Lightning 1000m:
Back Me: You just have to trust your eye and look to the obvious, which is 7 Spieth (Best Odds: $4.80). Star galloper who was no chance in the Darley Classic in the Spring based on weights and ratings, but the only thing that beat him was an awful Brad Rawiller steer. He should have bolted in the but had to settle for second to Malaguerra. Back for redemption and looks ready to rock and roll based on what we saw in the recent trial.
Big Danger: Three year olds have to be respected in this race, and given there is no standout sprinter, they are right in the game. Leaning the way of 12 Star Turn (Best Odds: $4.80) with the youngsters. He is the sharper one and looks to have come back in super order based on a recent Rosehill barrier trial win where he led them up and trotted up under a good hold. He’ll be on speed here and giving his all.
Long Shot: If they go silly in front, the horse I want to be on is 3 The Quarterback (Best Odds: $17.00), the winner of the Newmarket from last year. He raced three times during the Spring and was pretty good. Bolted up fresh in the Gilgai here before closing off well behind Rebel Dane in the Manikato. He then went to the Darley Classic where he got back and made up ground late behind Malaguerra. Wasn’t asked to do a great deal last week in a Cranbourne trial, but he is a bomb when produced fresh and saves his best for the straight course.
Race Nine (17:25) : The HKJC Trophy (84) 1700m:
Back Me: 5 Hard Call (Best Odds: $5.50) ran over 1500m under the lights of the Valley a couple of Friday nights back where he looked to travel well behind them but then got into an awful spot and it was a nightmare for a few strides before Mertens eventually got clear and he savaged the line to win in the last stride. Has won up to the mile before, and I can just see him sitting off speed, getting cover, then the drag up and blend in at the right time.
Big Danger: 9 O’Lonera (Best Odds: $8.50) wasn’t give much hope when resuming in the VOBIS Gold Star (1500m) at Moonee Valley four weeks back but to his credit, he stuck on very well in defeat behind the above average Burning front, who has franked the form by winning the Carlyon Cup last week at Caulfield. Fitter, up to 1700m looks ideal and he has enormous upside.
Long Shot: 6 Adirondack (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed over 1400m at Caulfield two weeks back and gee he was a real eye catcher late, warming to the task to run a close up third to Duke Of Brunswick. Good record at Flemington, performs well second up and off that fresh run, he has to be included here, especially up to 1700m.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Legless Veuve
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Smart Dart
VALUE: Race Six Number 6 Inside Agent
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 12
Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 13
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9
$50 Investment= 5.20% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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