24/2/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Diamond Stakes day

One of the premier days of Melbourne racing is Blue Diamond Day and it comes around this Saturday with a star studded nine event card. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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9 Bedford (Bet Now: $4.40) looks extremely hard to beat here. Produced the win of the day at Caulfield three weeks back over 2000m, rounding them up from last off a slow tempo and producing a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done, running sub 34 for the final 600m. Looks a lovely type and I think he can continue the picket fence.

4 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $4.60) an obvious danger. Trialled up really well prior to resuming over 1800m here a fortnight back where he was near last in a slowly run affair yet worked home with real purpose late behind Khutulun. problem is that form wasn’t franked at all in a weak Flemington last Saturday. That’s the concern, but I’ll trust what I saw with this horse and his resumption.

Good to see 3 Cismontane (Bet Now: $9.50) back at the races. Waterhouse/Bott train this stayer, who hasn’t raced since going at a strong tempo in the Melbourne Cup and dropping out to finish 13th. I say drop out, but he stuck on well. He does sprint well fresh and from what I’ve see at the jump outs, he appears to have come back well.

Going to give 8 Rellson (Bet Now: $11.00) another look. He was absolutely slapped in betting when resuming at Pakenham under the lights but he just got too far back and they absolutely crawled in front. Had no chance to run on like that, especially first up. Showed really good promise in the Spring and his trials leading in were very good.

3 Mr So And So (Bet Now: $3.70) has been outstanding in two runs back from a break. Resumed with a closing fourth at Moonee Valley behind prevailing Winds before going to the Autumn Stakes where he was a real eye catcher late behind Holy Snow. Looks as if he is crying out for further, which he gets here, and third up, should be at peak fitness.

12 Think Positive (Bet Now: $41.00) looks the best chance at longer odds. Very progressive colt for the Ledger team by So You Think who was luckless on debut at Benalla before going to Bendigo where he took a bit of winding up under Patty Moloney but his last 150m was excellent as he charged to the line and got the win. He’ll eat up 1800m and has enormous upside.

Back Me: Going to side with 2 Prevailing Winds (Bet Now: $5.50). This bloke attempted to lead all the way last time out in the Autumn Stakes and to his credit he gave a good kick but just weakened late when fourth to stablemate Holy Snow. 1400m sees him out so back to 1200m and back in depth, he should take some beating.

1 Overshare (Bet Now: $3.80) was a drifter in the market when racing in the Manfred here three weeks ago but despite that, he ran a beauty I thought on speed when a close up third to Cliff’s Edge. That form held up well in the CS Hayes last Saturday which is a tick and I think he will be another appreciative of the drop in depth.

7 Plutocracy (Bet Now: $9.50) is a talented son of Sebring for the Hayes/Dabernig team who resumed at Morphettville three weeks back where he was a bit of hard luck story, getting back and held up while Mondo Magic was off and gone and clung on to beat Plutocracy. That horse won last Saturday so the form has been franked, and this bloke does have quality.

7 Earth Angel (Bet Now: $6.50) each way for me. Well bred filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who had really good market support when resuming at this track/distance where she got back but worked home with real purpose late when second to Paris Rock. That girl went on to run well in the Vanity so the form reads well, has the run under the belt, and she’ll be strong at the end.

2 Smart Coupe (Bet Now: $4.50) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained filly who comes through the Kevin Hayes. She had no chance of winning the way the race was run. That, and missing the start wasn’t ideal. She is a very good filly with a stack of talent. Just two average wins on the board so she has to step up to the plate here.

1 Counterplay (Bet Now: $8.50) is a very good filly from SA for Phillip Stokes who ran some ripping races in the second tier three year old fillies races in the Spring. Crunched in betting when resuming against the older horses at Morphettville a fortnight back but she had to chase a had fit tearaway leader and her condition just gave way late. Giving her serious respect against this lot.

1 Silent Sedition (Bet Now: $2.90) was a hard favourite when resuming in the Bellmaine but if you were on, it was a bit of a nightmare for all concerned. Just no luck at all behind the speed and Williams didn’t really budge on her when fifth to Prussian Vixen. She’s the high class mare with runs on the board and given her record, she’s beautifully in.

6 Flippant (Bet Now: $4.40) probably lacks the class of some of these, but one thing she has going for her is the map because it appears she may get a very soft lead. Sat near the speed in the Bellmaine and loomed large to win but couldn’t quite get there when second to Prussian Vixen. if she gets a cheap furlong, she’ll take some beating.

3 Flying Jess (Bet Now: $12.00) is a John Moloney trained mare who caught the eye in the Bellmaine I thought. She got back to near last in the run but worked home with real purpose late to run sixth, beaten 2.3L. The step up to 1400m is ideal and if she is able to sit a touch closer in the run, I think she can give a great sight.

3 Brave Smash (Bet Now: $3.40) looks an obvious choice. Flat resumption in the Australia Stakes before going to the CF Orr where he was one of many hard luck stories in the race. Definitively, would he have won the race? If you looked at his run in isolation, yes, but there were a host of unlucky efforts. But third up at 1400m, he looks set to rock and roll.

I think 2 Humidor (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big watch here. High class animal that resumes for Darren Weir after a mixed prep, where the highlight was clearly that narrow second to Winx in the Cox Plate, looking the winner for a few strides. He then went on to the Melbourne Cup and by that stage, he probably had enough. Been given that extra time off and a recent jump out was very good to the eye.

5 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $31.00) looks crazy odds to my eye. He is a quality animal first up for the Hayes/Dabernig team after a pretty solid Spring, where he ran well in the Toorak and Cantala before racing like a tired horse in the Railway. Wodonga trial looked slick to the eye and he is a noted first up performer.

1 Long Leaf (Bet Now: $9.50 BOOSTED ODDS) has to be seriously respected. He’s three for three and has the runs on the board. Hasn’t raced since resuming in the Preview where he was given a sweet ride by Olly off a hot speed and finished best to score under relatively hands and heels in the straight. He races as if the 1200m will be no issue and he brings fresh legs.

I said after the Talindert that I didn’t think 4 Prairie Fire (Bet Now: $13.00 BOOSTED ODDS) could win the Blue Diamond but after drawing the inside, I think he’s right in this. The win last Saturday was outstanding and he won as he pleased out wide, clocking some fast splits late. The big query is how far back does he get. Any further back than four horses the rail, he’s in trouble. If he is three pairs on the rail or closer, he’s right in the game.

I think 8 Plague Stone (Bet Now: $12.00 BOOSTED ODDS) can only run well here. He was set an impossible task in the Prelude I thought when resuming. Sat four wide no cover throughout, McEvoy made his move before the turn to edge closer and the horse ran some outstanding splits. Had every right to drop out but only went down narrowly. I think with cover, and provided that resumption hasn’t busted him, he’s the one to beat.

I think this race all evolves around the Team Snowden trained sprinter 2 Russian Revolution (Bet Now: $4.20). If he is anywhere near right and/or wound up, I think he will be too classy for them. Had a two run Spring prep, winning the McEwen first up before having a torrid run in the Moir and dropping out. Been set for this race and his two trials in Sydney have simply been outstanding. If he’s right, he wins.

16 She Will Reign (Bet Now: $6.50) is the boom filly for Gary Portelli who is a multiple Group l winner so despite being three years old, she does have the runs on the board, including winning that Moir in an unbelievable finish. She resumed in the Inglis Sprint and while visually, it was ugly, she got the job done and from all reports, Portelli was very kind to her leading in, so she should improve off that big time, and she is a chaser. Getting cover is vital.

If you want to see a horse trialling well, have a look at the replays of the jump outs from 11 Bons Away (Bet Now: $11.00) this time in. He’s been a real star of the trials at Caulfield recently and looks to have taken great confidence from an awesome Spring prep, where the highlight was clearly the narrow fourth in the Gilgai. If he runs anywhere near his jump outs, he’ll take some beating.

2 Gailo Chop (Bet Now: $3.00) for me, just. Darren Weir trains this bloke, who had trialled up really well prior to resuming in the Carlyon Cup where he was a surprise drifter in betting but with a soft run on speed, his class kicked in late and proved too good. Looks to lead for fun if they so desire, and he can only improve off the resumption.

I’m very cautious about the CF Orr form and while the win of 1 Hartnell (Bet Now: $3.30) was great, I’m just not sure what to make of it. Still, credit to him. There were question marks on how well he was going but Williams gave him the ideal steer and he knuckled down superbly when it mattered. He will love the rise to 1800m and from all reports has worked well since.

9 Single Gaze (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute bonny mare for the Nick Olive team. She is a remarkable one. Performed well as a two year old in the Black Opal, and then fast forward to last year where she ran bravely in the Cups. Resumed in the CF Orr and like most in the race, they had a case that they should have won. She got badly held up when building momentum and only went down a lip. Definite contender.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Gailo Chop

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 9 Bedford

VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Rellson

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 4, 8, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 11, 16

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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