25/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, VRC St Leger day

Flemington will host their traditional Anzac Day meeting on Saturday, with a strong eight race program assembled. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Field 🏆: View the Field for the VRC St Leger

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1 Grandslam (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) does look the pony to bet on here. Good debut at Ballarat behind subsequent VRC Sires winner Lunar Fox before being freshened up and racing over 1250m on the Parks track two weeks ago when backed as if unbeatable and won accordingly under a good ride from Pannell. He improves off that you would assume and clearly rates highly against these.

5 Flying Award (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a leading chance here. Was very good on debut at Ballarat behind subsequent VRC Sires winner Lunar Fox before going to 1400m at Sandown where he was asked to chase from a fair way out but did hit the front, only to be nabbed right on the peg. He’s had the hard 1400m run under the belt which should hold him in good stead.

Giving respect to 7 Indictment (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) for Ken Keys. Son of Street Boss that had jumped out well at Cranbourne prior to his debut at Caulfield two weeks ago where he was run off his legs pretty much early on but once he balanced up he found the line alright I thought behind Diala. 1400m should be ideal, as should the bigger track.

Leaning the way of 7 Lamu (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) for Archie Alexander. She sets up like a mare that will head towards the Centaurea during the Adelaide Carnival, much like stablemate Clearly did last year. Former French mare that made her Australian debut over 1300m at Sandown and loved the way she finished her race off from the back when a close up fourth to Viral. Up to 1600m looks perfect and had been trialling well prior.

13 Cryptic Jewel (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks a leading chance here. Was very good in defeat two back in the Matron before going to the Epona on Slipper Day and failed to fire a shot behind Missybeel. That race had depth to it, so back to this level should suit and while she was due to run over 2100m on Easter Monday, back to 1600m should be okay.

6 Extreme Pride (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a Danny O’Brien trained mare that has had over a month off since resuming in the St Pats Day Cup at Geelong where she never really looked like a winning threat but she kept on and was more than sound in defeat behind Black Sail. Like her up to 1600m…does she want this run? Market will be the guide.

10 Kuramae (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) looks the sleeper here at big odds. Perhaps will use this to clean out the cobwebs for Warrnambool but she had been jumping out super prior to the resumption at Sandown where she drew wide and pretty much, it was another jumpout for her. Draws much better, fitter, gets to 1400m and Dean Yendall has a good record on her. In a tough race, happy to speck her 1×3 at the odds.

5 Oasis Girl (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained filly that had specking three weeks ago at Caulfield over 1400m and under a lovely front running steer from Thornton, the filly proved too good in leading throughout. Her form prior was just okay, but form around the Spring does read okay for a race like this. Keen to see if she can go on with it.

11 Heyington Station (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here. Comes through the Leale race from two weeks back at Caulfield where the tempo was slow and he is the sort of horse that gets better as the race goes on, building the revs from around the 600m, but last start, that just couldn’t happen to benefit him. If they go at a more true gallop, he can win.

1 Vow And Declare (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) is a $1.10 chance against these surely. Yes, a genuine $1.10 chance. The bottom weight, with the claim, is Mirimar with 54.5kg, so it’s a 6.5kg weight spread between the top weight, the reigning Melbourne Cup winner, and an off season 2400m winner. Williams on, up to a staying trip…he wins this.

6 Mirimar (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a Mike Moroney trained stayer that should run well here on his home track. Was hard in the market when racing at Caulfield three weeks ago over 2400m and in a slog to the line, he outstayed them and was too good. Inverloch franked that form by winning the Easter Cup a week later, so that reads well for this and 2600m should be fine.

He’s sneaky flying I think 3 Haky (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS). Needed the run first up in the Golden Mile at Bendigo before going to the Easter Cup at Caulfield and was quite good late off a slow tempo behind Inverloch. He’s getting out to a more ideal trip this time around and while he handles all conditions, I think in Australia, he is suited on firmer tracks. Leading chance.

3 Betcha Flying (Bet Now: $4.20) is one I wouldn’t entirely rule out. Was well held by Colette in the Adrian Knox but her run did have some merit to it. Was wide throughout and was forced very wide on the turn while Colette had the suck run and dashed to well. If Betcha Flying can sit a bit closer to the run and nearer the inside, wouldn’t shock at all if she can bounce back.

2 The Lifeline (Bet Now: $4.40) is a WaterBott trained three year old that is three weeks between runs since leading throughout at Caulfield over the mile. Was given a peach steer in front by Dunn, getting a very soft lead and turning it into a 400m dash home, which on wet ground, does suit those near the speed. Can he do it at 1700m on a dry deck?

For multiples, and certainly the quaddie, I’m including 7 Craftsmanship (Bet Now: $31.00). He comes through what was a fast run Port Adelaide Guineas three weeks ago at Morphettville won by the top class three year old Dalasan. In the form guide, it’ll say 11/13, beaten ten lengths, but he had no luck at all at a vital stage and should have finished much closer. Draws out, so gets clear air, and the jockey upgrade certainly helps.

I’m really keen on 6 St Arnicca (Bet Now: $26.00) for Paul Preusker. Had his first run for the stable in the Galilee Final at Caulfield and I thought he was good in defeat behind Royal Crown. To me, he is no good on wet ground compared to dry ground so getting onto a firmer surface here I like and to me, off what I’ve seen, 2800m is fine.

2 Royal Crown (Bet Now: $3.90) is the one to beat on form. Thought he was good behind Skiddaw at Bendigo before going to the Galilee Final when given a 12/10 steer by Zahra and he was strong to the line in winning. Off that, 2800m should be no issue and that is the traditional/key lead up to this, so has to be respected highly.

8 Tarn’s Prince (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Matt Cumani trained three year old that also comes through the Galilee Final. His run was okay despite being beaten 4.5L by Royal Crown. Just had too much to do from the back but did make up ground so for me, I think he’ll be okay at 2800m and he can sit much closer in the run if need be.

13 Esperance (Bet Now: $5.00) is a James Cummings trained gelding that resumes. Hasn’t raced since December 21 down the straight here when a game second to Bold Star, where he seemed to get every chance, but was no match for the straight track specialist, but was still game in running second. Has had two Flemington jumpouts for his return and sprints well fresh.

1 The Inevitable (Bet Now: $2.60) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Scott Brunton, this gelding is now with Patrick Payne, a stable that has been flying the last 6-12 months. Hasn’t raced since resuming in the Newmarket where he was a tad disappointing I thought behind Bivouac but perhaps the sit/sprint set up didn’t suit. Has the weight, but has the class.

8 Miss Iano (Bet Now: $12.00) looks suited back to 1000m. Comes through a 1000m race at Caulfield three weeks ago where she was resuming and had specking at a price, but the tempo was a touch too hot for her and she couldn’t finish it off when fifth to Diamond Effort. Last run last prep, she ran a beauty down the straight here behind subsequent Group l winner Tofane.

This race does look to be all about 17 Dadoozdart (Bet Now: $4.60), a former Irish stayer that makes his Australian debut for Team Hawkes. His best form was at 2000m+ when racing in Ireland and did look quite progressive. Has had three jumpouts to prepare for his first start over here and loved the most recent one, last week, when charging through the line. He could be a Spring class horse and belt these. Market will be the guide.

3 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $7.50) has been outstanding in the past 6-12 months. There was a period of time that he was going like an absolute busted, but he’s turned his form around in a big way. Loved the way he knuckled down to win at Caulfield, chasing strongly in the straight to wear down Sikandarabad. Up to 1700m on the home, he’s likeable.

Was on 4 Sikandarabad (Bet Now: $11.00) two weeks ago at Caulfield and have to include again. Convinced he’s going well. Had to be forgiving of the Golden Mile effort before going to Caulfield where he was really well specked at odds and under Callow, looked home, but was nabbed near the peg by Kentucky Breeze. Two 1600m runs under the belt now, so the rise to 1700m looks ideal.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Vow And Declare

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 17 Dadoozdart

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 St Arnicca

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 13

Leg Four: 17

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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