27/6/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Civic Stakes day

A nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday where there are several blacktype races across the afternoon. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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With upside to come, I’m in the corner of of 7 Fashchanel (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for John O’Shea. Loved the way she put them away to win first up at Kembla, showing really good change up speed when asked by Lever and clocked some very good late splits relative to the meeting. Stable starting to fire and finds a winnable Saturday metro race.

1 Frosty Rocks (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) is a son of Your Song for Bjorn Baker that gave them an absolute galloping lesson at Warwick Farm last time out, leading from the start under Nash and spanked them in an impressive performance. Can be a bit hit and miss, but off that last start win, he’s got to be hard to beat against this lot.

8 Rockarosa (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) comes out of Highway grade, which is normally a no go for these benchmark races, but she does have solid metro benchmark form when she was trained by Chris Waller. Has done little wrong since joining Keith Dryden, is hard fit, in form and should be strong at the end having had a 1500m lead in.

If this was 1800m, I’d declare 18 Dream Runner (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). I was keen on Lord Desanimaux at Canberra to beat Dream Runner given he was 1200m to 1600m from start one to start two, but he handled it superbly and was much too good for Lord Desanimaux, a horse who looked a coming Highway winner. That was a fast run mile and he looks to have enormous upside despite the form out of that last run being suspect.

1 Emma’s Jet (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a Matty Dunn trained three year old that should prove hard to beat. You want to talk about ride of the year, the ride from Jimmy Orman aboard this guy at Ipswich last start is in the discussion. Looked in awful trouble where he was before the turn but Orman played the percentages and stuck inside and got a dream inside run, dashing through late to win. Bigger track and up to 1400m looks a good recipe and is in the right stable.

9 Sebago (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a progressive animal for Jenny Graham that should be respected here. Just needed the run first up at Taree before going to Port Macquarie that he was heavily backed and duly saluted under a confident ride from Belinda Hodder. Up to 1400m I do like for him and he’s got upside to come against these.

Gee I think this is good placement by the Maher/Eustace stable with 2 Ablaze (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS). He’s the best jumper in Australia, but he’s a more than capable flat horse. Last run came in the Grand Annual at the Bool where his class came to the fore and he was much too good. On track for feature jumps races later in the season along with the Jericho. This will be a slog and he’ll be strongest late.

Think 3200m will be ideal for the James Cummings trained mare 7 Loveseat (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Ran over 2400m at Randwick three weeks ago and closed off from the back without really being a winning threat behind Terwilliker. That form was somewhat franked last Saturday with Elaborate running second to Mount Popa. Think the trip will be okay for her.

1 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has the talent to take this out. Problem being he has a couple of versions of himself. There’s the version that ran fourth in the Sydney Cup, which would see him odds on here. He then races like a skunk, which best describes his last start effort in the Winter Cup. His best sees him win…but very hard to trust.

12 Zing (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks a very progressive filly for the Chris Waller stable that should love the rise to 1800m. She was a proper definition of ‘Line Chaser’ when winning over the mile at Warwick Farm last time out, really surging under J Mac to nab them near the peg. She’s racing as if she wants more ground and she gets that here.

7 Milunka (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a handy looking mare for Chris Waller that was an impressive first up winner over 1550m at Canterbury before remaining at the same track/distance where on face value, she was plain, but was found to be 2/5 lame post race, so clear excuses for her. Not the strongest race here and a rise to 1800m suits.

2 Itz Lily (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) should appreciate a rise to 1800m for the in form Kris Lees team. No luck two back on the Kenso track before going to the Randwick mile where she didn’t seem 100% happy on that very heavy track behind a good one in Opacity. Convinced she’s going well and getting onto a firmer deck should help her cause.

Keen to see 3 Embracer (Bet Now: $4.40) resume for the WaterBott team. First up is this four year old, having not raced since Feb 1 when down the track at Randwick behind a quality sprinter in Roheryn. Has been given a good break and have loved the way he has trialled leading in, most notably his latest trial, seeing him win and do it under no real pressure.

8 Prime Candidate (Bet Now: $5.50) is the big watch here. Bjorn Baker trained gelding who hasn’t raced since September 21 when a close up fourth to the Stakes class mare and Group l performed mare, Sweet Scandal. Just one soft trial leading in, and to the eye was just, but didn’t wear blinkers in that trial and they’re on for race day.

2 Sandbar (Bet Now: $9.50) should be suited back on firmer footing, provided the track can dry out somewhat. Resumed over 1200m a few weeks ago when doing work near the speed and tired late behind Esperance, but to me, he seems a horse most effective at short course trips ie 1000/1100, so like him back to 1100m and does have a touch of class.

Better luck this time around and 2 Sixties Groove (Bet Now: $7.50) wins. I’m really keen on his chances. No luck first up in the Scone Cup before going to the Lord Mayors Cup a few weeks ago over 2000m here when wide throughout in a total forgive behind noted swimmer Wu Gok. Don’t think the track will be as wet this time around and hopefully the rub of the green goes his way.

12 Attention Run (Bet Now: $4.20) is an interesting runner. She did the thing for us at the big odds two weeks ago over 1800m here when first up and really, it was surprising she was at those kind of odds given her form was very good and only needed to be somewhere near her best. She looks as if she is and with upside to come is a leading chance.

4 Carzoff (Bet Now: $6.00) looks ready to win for Chris Waller. Given a sweet ride by Nash in the Winter Cup two weeks ago here and was there to beat stablemate Wu Gok, but credit to that horse, he toughed it out and on the line outstayed Carzoff. He’s hard fit now is Carzoff and should prove hard to beat here.

2 Crack Me Up (Bet Now: $8.50) looks big odds here. Bjorn Baker trains this gelding, who comes through the Group l Stradbroke. I’m not sure if it was stable or jockey, but whoever made the call to ride it warm…that was an awful decision. It was a brutal speed in front and those near the speed had no chance of finishing off, including this guy. Back to a suitable race in Sydney and senior jock takes over. Near $20 looks silly.

8 Trumbull… (Bet Now: $6.50) jump you bugger. He’s on par with Bad Boy For Love as the most unlucky horse in Sydney the past month or so, but both cases, it is the fault of the horse due to their awful racing patterns, especially Trumbull, who keeps missing the start. Did it again here two weeks ago and was enormous in defeat when second to True Detective. He’ll win one soon…just needs to jump clean.

Back in trip is the knock with 4 Order Again (Bet Now: $13.00) but I think Chris Waller has him on track for a win. First run for the stable came three weeks ago at Randwick when a closing fourth to stablemate Dealmaker in an encouraging debut for the new stable. Has since trialled well again…1350m is short of his best, but when right, he has quality.

Buttering up with 2 Night Of Power (Bet Now: $2.80), who resumed for Bjorn Baker two weeks ago over 1300m here when seemingly getting a decent run just off the speed and got the inside split to be a winning threat early on in the straight. Just knocked up late, perhaps in need of the run. Fitter and up to 1500m, giving him another chance.

I think pilot error cost 1 Spencer (Bet Now: $4.20) last Saturday at Randwick. The inside was fine for the meeting, so not sure why Nash elected to ease off the inside, giving the run to the eventual winner Ballet Master. He’s flying this horse but if there is a knock, it is that he has failed on the seven day back up previously.

Not sure he wins, but for multiples I’d include 10 Chalmers (Bet Now: $26.00), who has run over 1550m at Canterbury at her past couple, the latest on a bottomless track when fourth to Baanone. Back to 1500m on firmer footing I do like for him and from the gate, he does no work and can fill a first four spot against these.

The Adelong form is strong and with that in mind, on top in the get out is 1 Echo Jet (Bet Now: $10.00), who resumed over 1100m here a month ago where the race shape didn’t suit him first up but was still a definite pass mark I thought behind the above average Brad Widdup mare. Tricky gate, but looks to get good speed in front and be strong at the end.

5 Kordia (Bet Now: $2.90) is a very interesting runner. James Cumming trained three year old that hasn’t raced since winning a Stakes race during the Brisbane Winter Carnival last year, beating a promising one in Big Parade. Has had over a year off, but his trials leading in have been quite good. Just needs to overcome a tricky draw.

Want to be forgiving of 6 Tony’s Reward (Bet Now: $21.00) and his resumption behind Oakfield Twilight. Had really good market support but got back and failed to come on in quite a disappointing resumption. Perhaps just one soft trial leading into a heavy track run brought him undone, so I think he’s deserving of another chance.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Sixties Groove

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Ablaze

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Crack Me Up

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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