19/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting will be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday where it is Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Cumberbatch (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) should take some beating here on his home track. Impressive winner two back at Sandown prior to racing over 1500m at the Valley two weeks ago and gee he was stiff. I think had he got clear when Jamie Kah initially probed for the run, the gelding was going to go close to winning. Hopefully the rub of the green goes his way this time around.

3 Celestial Sol (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is a son of Fighting Sun for Chris Waller who can mix his form, but his best is certainly good enough. Got a long way back a fortnight back at the Valley and closed off hard late from near last when second to Flash Flood. I think with a cold steer, he’ll see out the mile and is a knockout chance.

The blinkers are whacked back on 6 Surooj (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS), likely as a last resort to determine if she is indeed an Oaks horse or not. Comes through the race mentioned above and didn’t really set the world on fire from the back so the headgear going on I do like for her, and the resumption was good, so she deserves one more chance.

Interesting to see what the market will do with 5 Groundswell (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) but to me, he seems ready to go for a first up win. Team Freedman trained four year old that is first up, having not raced since a somewhat disappointing Autumn prep, but he has had three jumpputs to get ready for his return and was given a strong hitout in his jumpout win last week. Think he’s wound up to win.

8 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a horse I find frustrating to follow, but he gets a couple of big ticks here in gate one and C Williams. Was five weeks between runs when racing at Geelong last time out. Was there to win 200m out but condition just gave out late. He’ll come on from that and his best is clearly good enough.

7 Legionnaire (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a John Moloney trained four year old that had jumped out well prior to resuming at this track/distance three weeks ago where Olly put him on speed and tried hard when a close up second to Express Pass. Second up record isn’t too bad and with improvement from the resumption, he’s in the mix.

9 Forever Free (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel that resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. This girl won 3/3 during the Autumn, ending her first prep with a win at Stakes level in the Queen Adelaide during the Morphettville Carnival. Liked the recent jumpout and does boast a strong win at this track at start two.

Interesting placement here from James Cummings when it comes to 1 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who resumes. Had two runs during the latter part of the Autumn, resuming with a down the track effort at Randwick behind Peltzer before coming to Caulfield and winning. Sydney trial to get ready was good, so I think he’s a market watch.

6 Crystal Chief (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. Stablemate of Forever Free that resumed in a Wangaratta maiden when backed with confidence late and duly saluted, bolting clear late to win impressively. Beaten a lip by Valaquenta in that Caulfield race mentioned above, so in terms of pricing, think he is relative overs.

Great to see 7 Front Page (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) back at the races. He’s on track for the Kosciuszko but the way he won when last in work, he ran times to suggest he could be blacktype quality, even Group l quality. Hasn’t trialled publicly but a few weeks left til the Kosciuszko, you would suspect he’s relatively forward in condition, but market will be the guide.

Each time Phillip Stokes has asked 6 Octane (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) to step up to the plate, he has done so successfully and that can continue here. Hasn’t raced for five weeks since producing his customary brilliant turn of foot to win down the straight at Flemington. Looks to be a bit of depth engaged here, but he looks the most progressive.

1 Despatch (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. Resumed from a decent break in the McEwen, with 1000m being well short of his best, but I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bella Vella. Is a second up winner and up to 1100m with upside is a big tick for this Group l winner. Interesting to see what the market does.

10 Parmie (Bet Now: $6.00) is third up from a break for the Ellerton/Zahra camp and should take some beating. Didn’t really handle the bog track fresh at the Valley behind Tailleur before finding firmer footing there and was very good in defeat when a narrow second to How Womantic after doing work in the run. Hard fit, up to 1400m, hard to beat.

3 Fabric (Bet Now: $6.50) looks to have returned in really good order for Danny O’Brien. Market said he might need the run when resuming over 1200m at the Valley but loved the way she found the line late behind How Womantic in a very encouraging return. Might need one more given her second up record isn’t flash, but the resumption was very good.

If there is a total blowout, it’s 6 Strome (Bet Now: $20.00). Had her first run for the O’Prey camp at this track/distance three weeks ago and it was pretty much a barrier trial for her. Seemingly had something to offer, but couldn’t get clear. Gets in okay after the claim for Poy and if she gets clear air this time around, she could be dangerous.

4 Mozzie Monster (Bet Now: $2.90) is the unknown because we don’t know how good she is. Beat up an average lot on debut at Cranbourne before going to Bendigo where she was run off her legs early but Jamie Kah was able to slice her way through the field nearer the inside and away she went. She’s good…just how good? We’ll find out here.

6 Agreeable (Bet Now: $4.80) looks to have her share of talent for the Freedman camp. Problem for her is that she has no early speed, which has been the case in both runs back from a spell, the latest in the Atlantic Jewel when closing off nicely, but is just spotting those in front too much head start. If she can sit closer in the run, she’ll be hard to beat.

13 Odeum (Bet Now: $23.00) is an improver at odds. Impressive debut winner at Moe before being freshened up and racing in the Atlantic Jewel at the Valley. Not sure she was going to win, but should have finished closer when fifth to Night Raid. Draws to do no work in the run and a bit surprised $20+ is on offer.

9 Orderofthegarter (Bet Now: $3.50) looks one of the better bets on the card. Danny O’Brien trained five year old that has been very good in two runs back from a break, the latest coming here three weeks ago when a closing second to Al Galayel in what was a fast run race. Bursting to win a race this time in and he gets his chance here.

Not sure 3 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $5.00) is up to a Caulfield Cup but I think is ticking along beautifully for a race like the Cranbourne Cup or even the Geelong Cup. He was really warming to the task late in the Heatherlie where he was first up and nearer the inside. Gets to 2000m and off the resumption, I think he has to be respected.

14 Game Keeper (Bet Now: $8.00) should be ready for the 2000m now for the McEvoy camp. Very good resumption in the Auries Star at Flemington before jumping straight to 1700m in the Heatherlie and was a bit one paced but sound in defeat. He’s looking like he wants a trip now and third up from a break, should be hard fit.

4 Cascadian (Bet Now: $10.00) has an awful racing pattern, but he’s been very good in two runs back from a spell. Latest of those runs came in the Memsie when back and closing off strongly when fourth to Behemoth. Does get a weight pull on that horse here, and with good speed in front, can see him sitting back and finishing over the top.

1 Behemoth (Bet Now: $4.20) is the safe option against these. He’s the one with the Group l form, and a Group l win when bolting up in the Memsie, with the ride from Craig Williams winning the race for the five year old. Now back to a Handicap, but he looks spot on if a recent Murray Bridge jumpout is any guide. Hard to beat.

The gate turns me right off 7 Madam Rouge (Bet Now: $17.00) but still have to include her given her last couple of runs at 1400m. The second last 1400m run came last year in the Hot Danish when pretty much going around like a barrier trial, and of course in June when beaten a lip in the Stradbroke. Loved her resumption in the Cockram and is a chance for sure, but the gate is nasty.

6 Lyre (Bet Now: $2.30) for me. Team Freedman trained mare who has been pretty solid throughout her career but I think this is around her level these days. Resumed here three weeks ago and closed off strongly, just missing out on picking up Diamond Effort. Is a second up winner and strikes a winnable Stakes race. In her corner.

2 Humma Humma (Bet Now: $6.50) has returned in good order for John McArdle. Jumped out well prior to resuming here three weeks back. Loomed to win when Jamie Mott pushed the button but her condition just gave out late behind Diamond Effort. Has a great record in Mares races and fitter, up in trip, she’s very likeable.

5 I Am Eloquent (Bet Now: $26.00) is an I Am Invincible mare for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since the Creswick in June when down the track with excuses behind the very exciting Front Page. Liked the recent jumpout from this girl and at her best, she’s more than capable of measuring up to these.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Orderofthegarter

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Front Page

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Cascadian

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 13

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 13

Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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