16/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

A strong nine race program has been assembled for Rosehill on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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No surprise that 7 Remarque (Bet Now: $1.35 TOP ODDS) has been supported in early betting despite opening even money. He hasn’t raced yet but I have him as #1 seed for the Golden Slipper. It is only trials, but in terms of juveniles, he has trialled the best of any juvenile I’ve seen this season. Just needs luck from the draw and he’ll win and assert himself as a Slipper contender.

Another that has trialled well is 2 Cork Harbour (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS), on debut for Chris Waller. He was given a squeeze late by Collett in his latest trial here and the turn of foot was there for all to see. Looks a smart type and I think will be winning races. Just bumps into a potential star here.

6 Lucky Sun (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) can add value to multiples. Mark Newnham trained son of Maurice that is on debut. He finished a few lengths off Remarque in a recent Rosehill trial and though safely held, he didn’t move too bad and I’m on guard with the Maurice progeny because they have shown talent early on.

Great to see 7 The Bopper (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) back at the races. Quality three year old for Kris Lees that resumes, with eyes towards the big Inglis race at Warwick Farm in a few weeks time. Hasn’t raced since leading throughout and bouncing back to his best to win the Brian Crowley during the Spring. The recent Wyong trial, he could have won by ten had he been touched by Sam Clenton. Rosehill 1100m start suits his racing pattern and he has the brilliance.

Fascinating runner is 2 Bulletin (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS), a former US galloper that makes his Australian debut for the WaterBott team and the stable have had success with US imports eg Con Te Partiro. His overall US form is solid without jumping up and down, but enough to suggest he could be a Stakes class horse. Two 1000m trials have been solid so he’s had a decent enough grounding for this.

It’ll be interesting to see what Kris Lees does with 4 Cristal Breeze (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS). I think he has got blacktype potential and could be a horse they have eyes on as a maybe a Newcastle Newmarket type of horse. He did an excellent job in his first Australian prep and still has ratings points in hand when you consider his Timeform rating. 1100m is short of his best, but his two trials to get ready have been more than encouraging.

This looks a real target race for the Matty Dale trained 5 Banger (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS). Came through a solid rating race two back at Flemington behind Sebarate before having three weeks break and raced last Saturday over 1200m in a Highway. To the eye, he was one off, but watching the Stewards vision, he was three wide no cover, so he did a really good job in defeat. Has run well on the back up previously and now up to 1500m looks idea.

7 Mother’s Mercy (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here. Paul Messara trained mare that put together three wins on the bounce to start her career, which meant she was a short priced elect two weeks ago in a Highway and for mine, she just didn’t handle the wet track, so be forgiving. Back on top of the ground, she can win this.

8 Costas (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t far off a Highway win I feel. Brett Thompson trained gelding who has run well in Highways his past two, the latest coming on the Kenso track two weeks ago. He had a sweet sit in transit and loomed to beat Boyles, but that horse packed too many punches and was too good on the day. Not far off a win and gets his chance.

5 Harpo Marx (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is racing very well at the moment for Bjorn Baker. Put together two on the bounce prior to racing two weeks ago on the Kenso track where he had to try and make a sustained run from the back and just couldn’t quite get there when third to Power Of Attorney. Back on firmer footing, he’ll take some beating.

6 Merlinite (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a John O’Shea trained mare who has done her recent racing under the lights at Canterbury and has been good without a great deal of luck. Latest run came just over two weeks ago where she was a close up fourth and for the most part, had her chance. Has run well in two races at Rosehill previously and is a leading contender.

7 First Courrier (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can run a cheeky race here at odds. Team Price trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing in a similar race at Randwick where he was tucked in near the speed throughout. Lacked the class to finish it off but stayed on and was sound in defeat. Form out of that has been solid and this race isn’t strong.

3 Lancaster Bomber (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. Richard Litt trained son of Denman that is three weeks between runs since leading at a solid tempo at Randwick and he fought on well in defeat, but bumped into a future Stakes winner in waiting IMO in All Time Legend, who produced the win of the meeting last Saturday at Randwick. Hard to beat is Lancaster Bomber.

6 He’s A Hotshot (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy galloper for Bjorn Baker who is a recent winner at this track so think he commands respect. He comes through the All Time Legend race from three weeks back at Randwick where he got shuffled back nearer the inside and worked home well late to run third. Leading contender.

Very interesting runner is 1 Cognac (Bet Now: $5.00), who makes his Australian debut for the Freedman camp. He has a Timeform rating of 93 so with a 78 rating here, he creates interest. Showed really good promise overseas before being sent to Australia, and his two trials have been encouraging, so keen to see how he goes.

1 Monegal (Bet Now: $5.50) is hard to beat back to this level. Theresa Bateup trained mare that comes through the Belle Of The Turf at Gosford. Was wide no cover for most of the trip yet kept finding the line and was really good in defeat I thought behind Threeood. Has a real liking for Rosehill and back to a 78 from Group lll level, very likeable.

5 Zoffany’s Lad (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Grant Allard trained gelding that can be dangerous here in the small field, especially the way the map is looking now after a couple of key scratchings. Resumed three weeks ago at Randwick and worked home strongly, with his fitness just running out at the end. He’ll come on from that and is a leading contender.

7 Orcein (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hard one to catch but his best is certainly good enough to run well here and he does save his best for the home track here. On face value, he was plain behind Snowfire two weeks ago, but the track was wet, he was off a month break…just needed the run I felt. Can be a big improver here.

7 Bazooka (Bet Now: $6.50) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but the thing he has going for him is the form around him. It just reads better than this lot. Resumed in the Gosford Guineas and not sure he was 100% happy on the tight track but balanced up in the straight and was sound in defeat behind Forbidden Love. Fitter, up in trip on his home track, he’ll do me.

6 Blaze A Trail (Bet Now: $8.00) is the very interesting runner. Matty Vella trained three year old that resumes. Was formerly with Team Snowden but was sent to Vella and won two races from as many outings for the new stable. The key to him is firm ground and his record on good tracks, Soft5 at worst, does read well. Two trials as well, both in town, have been good.

12 Tycoonist (Bet Now: $7.50) can be a big improver here. Broke the maiden emphatically at Canterbury in late November before being freshened up. Ran on the Kenso track behind Private Eye where he had the suck run in behind the speed and tried hard. Just lacked the race fitness and condition. He’ll come on from that and is a live threat.

Cejay Graham has ridden 8 Hibiscus Lady (Bet Now: $4.80) very well in recent runs, but I do like the senior rider in Josh Parr taking over, to hopefully try and get that last bit out of her. Massive effort last time when wide no cover for the trip but stayed on well behind Never Talk. Gets run of the race from the draw and think she’s a safe option.

Think the evidence is well and truly there to say that 6 Never Talk (Bet Now: $4.40) is most effective on tracks with give in it. Last two times she has come to town with a wet track on the cards, she has been explosive and won impressively, the latest being two weeks back on the Kenso when sitting off the speed with cover before edging wider and away she went. Hard to hold out with a repeat effort.

5 Lillemor (Bet Now: $9.50) has the right racing pattern for the Rosehill 1100m start. Both runs this prep have come on the Kenso track, the latest when sitting near a good speed and battling away well when fourth to Never Talk. Should be near the front and I think she’ll give an almighty sight.

Back on firmer footing, I’m really keen on the Team Snowden three year old 5 Smart Image (Bet Now: $3.80). Was accepted for the Magic Millions Guineas but couldn’t get a spot in the final field. On face value, he was pretty plain two weeks ago on the Kenso track, but the track was heavy, the race shape was against…just forget he went around. First up win was a beauty and off that effort, he can take this out.

I’m giving serious respect to 8 Private Eye (Bet Now: $2.35). Joe Pride has him humming along beautifully, winning 3/3 this prep. Latest of those wins came two weeks ago on the Kenso track at Randwick where he looked in a bit of trouble early on in the straight before cutting back towards the inside and he went through his gears like a good horse to win and win well. He’s a key winning hope.

I think 12 Super Contender (Bet Now: $12.00) would be better suited racing in Queensland, but the reason I’m including him here is the very kind speed map he appears to have. Should lead these for absolute fun. He’s been disappointing this prep but getting away from the lights at Canterbury and onto a bigger track, with a soft lead, could spark improvement.

BEST BET: Race One Number 7 Remarque

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Smart Image

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 5 Banger

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 10

Leg Two: 6, 7, 8, 12, 13

Leg Three: 5, 6, 8, 9

Leg Four: 5, 8

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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