13/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Natasha Stakes day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues on Saturday with a couple of lead ups towards the Oaks and Derby as feature raes. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Found this juvenile race near impossible to sort out with confidence. For the sake of a tip, on top is 8 Far Too Strong (Bet Now: $7.50), who is on debut for Lindsey Smith. Thought he moved well out the back in a recent Lark Hill trial and though drawn tricky, stable finds Chris Parnham for start one, which is a positive lead.

3 Secret Lair (Bet Now: $4.50) is a month between runs for the Pearce camp since debuting over 1100m here where he got back off the speed and was never really a winning factor, but liked the way he found the line late in the piece. Tricky draw, but the extra trip suits and should be strong at the end.

7 Alamher Man (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Fred Kersley trained gelding that is having start one. He has had a gradual build up to the debut with four trials dating back to January where he has moved pretty well each time he has stepped. Big thing going for him is gate one, so has to be respected against an even bunch.

The Casey team should win the race and likely run 1-2. Just a matter of picking which one. The map horse is 3 Sassy Trader (Bet Now: $3.80), who resumes. He ran throughout the Spring/Summer Carnival and ran well, but didn’t quite measure up against some quality types. No trials to get ready, but stable rider is on and draws to do no work from the gate.

4 Savage One (Bet Now: $2.60) has done little wrong this time in, winning 2/2. Got the kill out of the way fresh at Geraldton but was more impressive at Pinjarra when leading near the outside fence and he was dominant to the line. Good test for him here, but think he’s up to the task.

7 Divine Pair (Bet Now: $7.50) is a son of Playing God for Colin Webster that resumes. Hasn’t raced since September 17 at Northam when a solid third to Oristano in a maiden which has produced five winners, so the form reads well. $4.60 opening price was ridiculously short so don’t be alarmed by the drift. He’s just getting to a price he should be, which is around $8/$9 IMO.

Going to give 2 Wild Fusion (Bet Now: $5.50) another chance. I’d just forget he went around last Saturday at Bunbury. He was ridden far too warm when on speed and he dropped out late. To the eye, was disappointing, but had excuses I thought. Much better suited here and can bounce back in a big way.

3 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now: $2.80) is on the quick back up for the Parnham camp after racing here on Sunday. Sat on speed throughout and tried quite hard in the straight when a solid third to a proven city performer in Tinsnip. Should get a lovely run in transit from the gate and is hard to beat.

1 Firesale (Bet Now: $12.00) doesn’t have the best of records at Ascot but I think he is racing well. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when back near last in the run before easing wider and finishing off strongly behind Amelia’s Contraire. Smaller field suits and a win wouldn’t entirely shock.

Market will be the guide, but I’m taking a chance with 5 Creator (Bet Now: $11.00), a former Team Snowden runner that is making his WA debut for the Gangemi camp. Hasn’t raced since August 26 when down the track behind On The Lead, who has since been Stakes placed with Group l form around him. Closed off well in a recent Belmont trial and Blinkers on fresh tells me there is intent.

8 Universal Pleasure (Bet Now: $3.50) is racing in a real purple patch this prep for Stefan Vahala, winning three on the bounce. Latest of the wins came a few weeks ago at Bunbury when leading throughout and he was much too good, defying a notable late betting drift. Drawn wide, but has early toe and gets in well after the claim.

6 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very enigmatic sprinter but his best is good enough to be around the mark. Few weeks between runs since racing at Albany when back in the run and failing to come on in a disappointing effort. Blinkers back on and he has run well in town previously when Lindsey Smith had him.

The 1000 Guineas from two weeks ago looks the right form for this and for mine, the best run from the race with an eye towards this was 5 Pure Devotion (Bet Now: $4.20). She got a long way back in the run but loved the way she found the line late when third to Brave Angel. Smaller field, can sit closer in the run and no doubt she’ll be strong at the end.

2 Brave Angel (Bet Now: $3.30) is hard to beat. Simon Miller trained filly that was big odds in the 1000 Guineas but credit to her, she finished off strongly from the speed and was able to get up and beat Solaia. Off that, 2200m here should be fine for her and is the winner of the key lead up race.

3 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $5.50) might the Oaks filly to come out of this. Just not sure she’s sharp enough to beat some of these despite being hard fit. This will be her third run in as many weeks, breaking the maiden tag last Saturday at Bunbury, aided by an absolute peach from Carbery, who remains on. Keen to see how she goes.

7 Miss Marietta (Bet Now: $3.80) looks a safe option. Brett Pope trained mare that is on the quick back up after racing last Wednesday at Pinjarra. Heavily backed odds on pop and once she landed a plum spot just off the speed, it was race over and she duly bolted up. Gets a similar run from a good draw and can measure up for sure.

4 Beret (Bet Now: $4.40) doesn’t have the best of winning records, but she does have good talent and should prove hard to beat. That looked the case two weeks back here and she looked the winner for a few strides, but had to settle for a close up second to Amelia’s Contraire. The 1600m should be okay and has upside.

2 Sowar (Bet Now: $7.50) should be thereabouts again for the Steve Wolfe stable. Ran over 1800m here two weeks back where he had a suck run behind the speed before edging into clear air and he surged hard late. Just couldn’t quite finish it off at the end of 1800m so back to the mile I see as a positive.

It’s hard to get away from 1 Western Empire (Bet Now: $1.40). Well supported odds on pop when racing two weeks back in the Lex Piper but I don’t think many would have anticipated a 5.4L romp of his rivals, really making a mess of them. The extra 200m should be no issue and even the extra 2kg doesn’t seem enough to stop him.

7 Flash Ducati (Bet Now: $15.00) is still my WA Derby pony. Was on him at the big odds in the Lex Piper and he didn’t disgrace himself at all when a closing second to Western Empire. I think come WA Derby Day, this guy is the one. Doubt he beats Western Empire, but I think can close the gap on him.

3 Off Wego (Bet Now: $34.00) is an interesting runner. He comes through the Lex Piper where he was last in the run and just couldn’t get involved but was okay late without threatening. Had a tick over trial on Monday to keep the fitness levels right up, so will be interesting to see how he goes against these.

On paper, rising to a 66+ race is a rise in grade/depth for 2 Cuballing (Bet Now: $3.40), but given the lack of depth in the field, it’s similar to what he beat up last start when charging hard late from the back to win over 1100m here a few weeks ago. Back 100m in trip no issue, can sit closer in the run from the good draw and be strong at the end.

4 River Beau (Bet Now: $2.90) looks to be in for a good prep. He resumed a fortnight back over this track/distance when back near last in the run but loved the way he found the line at the end behind Plutocracy in running third. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take a power of beating against this lot.

This is the weakest race that 1 Molten (Bet Now: $51.00) has contested since arriving in WA. Resumed two weeks ago in a 72+ at this track/distance where he had a pretty good run in transit and thought he was entitled to do a bit more behind Plutocracy. Given the drop in depth, he can run an improved race.

2 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $4.00) finds his D-Day IMO. I’ve been on him in both runs back from a spell and each time, he has got back and worked to the line strongly. But that’s been the story of his life. If the breaks go his way, he can win. Other days, he is a blacbooker for next time. Blinkers first time, hard fit, 1400m…gets his chance.

7 Tycoon Storm (Bet Now: $5.00) is a big query here. Lindsey Smith trained mare that resumes after a somewhat disappointing prep during the Carnival. Was luckless in the Jungle Mist but subsequent to that, thought she was disappointing. Trialled well on Monday and good lead that stable finds Harvey to steer.

11 Cockyjoy (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the seven day back up after landing decent bets at odds to win last Saturday at Bunbury. Lovely ride from Lucy Warwick saw the mare get into a lovely spot before getting an inside split, dashing through and holding on to win. Harder here, but she’s in form and down in the weights.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Cuballing

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Western Empire

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Creator

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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