3/4/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Easter Cup day

Racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday for a strong nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Easter Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Easter Cup

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I’m with 15 Kent Street (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) in the opener. He is a few weeks between runs and comes back to 1400m from 1600m. Contested the Country Mile on All Star Mile Day and was luckless. Should have gone close to winning had he got clear air instead of going around like it was a barrier trial. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and think only runs well.

11 Vongole (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip. Both runs back from a spell have come over 1200m, the latest coming behind Exeter a fortnight ago at the Valley. He never really looked comfortable on the bog but picked up and was good late in the piece without being a winning threat. Best is more than good enough.

1 Maritana (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1400m second up. Resumed over 1200m at Mornington where like most, was run off his legs by Ginger Jones, but picked up nearer the inside and was good late in defeat. Better suited up in distance to my eye and is a second up winner previously. Leading chance.

4 Agreeable (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip for the Freedman camp. Resumed over 1300m at Sandown, where as usual. she got a mile back in the run and finished off strongly late when a close up third to Palace Whisper. If she’s within range on the turn, she’s certainly good enough.

Think 1 Incredulous Dream (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) can win again. Market was somewhat against her when she resumed at Mornington two weeks ago but she found cover from the breeze, tracked through nicely and finished best to wear down Garvoc. Should be good improvement off that and up to 1400m looks ideal.

8 Canadian Gold (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Not sure she beat a great deal on debut at Sale but had to be impressed by the way she put them away from off the speed. There has been a winner to come out of it and the overall time was solid, so keen to see how she goes at metro level.

8 Najmaty (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) just needs normal luck and I think she’ll be too good for this lot. Plenty of quality about her debut win on the Kenso track, sprinting like a very sharp filly late to win and win well, running time in the process. Just needs luck from the gate and she’ll be beating these.

3 Exceed Expect (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and try hard. That was the case when he debuted at Ballarat. He was there to be beaten in the straight but loved the way he knuckled down to fend off Free Market and held that horse on the line. Harder here, but he’ll give a sight.

2 Hunnam (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip on a bigger track. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley where he was back near last in the run and never really a factor, but liked the way he closed off very late in the piece in an excellent effort. He can be dangerous if puts it all together against this lot.

11 Ripper Rita (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a quality filly for Greg Eurell who should prove hard to beat. Resumed in a 1400m Pakenham maiden where she looked a good thing on paper and under Jamie Mott, she duly was a good thing and spanked her rivals to win and win well. The rise to 1600m is ideal and has upside compared to some.

Remaining at the mile is the query with 6 Black Penn (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) but he looks hard to beat. Dominant maiden winner fresh at Pakenham before going to the Mornington Guineas where Yendall probably didn’t ride the best race on the youngster and should have fought the finish out instead of third to Dom To Shoot. If he gets clear air to wind into his work, think he’s the one to beat.

This will be a good test for 1 Struck By (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) to see just how good he is. I know he comes here off the back of a Stakes win, but with respect, what he beat at Morphettville as a whole wasn’t flash, and weaker compared to what he faces here. But he was strong to the line in winning, he’s tough and in form.

15 Winsum (Bet Now: $4.60) gets the nod. Progressive three year old for the Keys stable that resumed off a let up on his home track at Cranbourne and in a fast run race, his class came to the fore in a sustained run from off the speed and she was sharp. He can win this and then potentially head towards blacktype.

5 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $12.00) looks hard to beat for James Cummings. Ran at the Valley on William Reid Night and if you were on, apologies for bringing it up again. Gee he should have won. Just had no luck in the straight when seemingly full of running. Form was somewhat mixed prior but off the last start effort, I think he’s back on track.

4 Minhaaj (Bet Now: $7.00) is a fascinating runner. This time last year, she was hard in the market for a Golden Slipper. Had three runs in the Spring and did finish behind September Run on a couple of occasions, and she’s nearly been along this season in somewhat measuring up to the older horses, so the form reads well. Keen to see how she goes.

5 Octane (Bet Now: $8.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but if he’s within range on the turn, he is certainly good enough to finish over the top of these. Hasn’t raced since Derby Day at Flemington when just at the end of a long prep and looking for the paddock behind Kemalpasa. Can sprint well fresh and his two jumpouts at Pakenham have been good enough to suggest he can win fresh.

10 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $7.50) is an absolute speed demon for John Sadler that will make sure this is a proper 1000m contest. He did that at Mornington two weeks ago and it was just sustained speed that came to the fore in an impressive display. Harder here, but he’ll give a bold sight for a very much in form camp.

4 Sword Of Mercy (Bet Now: $7.00) has been up a little while but is holding her form pretty well. Thrown in the deep end in the Oakleigh Plate last time and I thought she was more than a pass mark in defeat behind Portland Sky/Celebrity Queen in a good effort. Much better suited at this level and is hard to beat.

I’ll take a chance on 8 Amade (Bet Now: $13.00). Former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Phillip Stokes. He arrived here in the Spring in the hope of getting into the Melbourne Cup but couldn’t get a spot in the final 24. Spelled and resumes here. He trialled well and his form from overseas, gee if he is anywhere near right, he could spank these.

2 Persan (Bet Now: $2.80) has the class and that will carry him a long way. He resumed over 2040m at the Valley three weeks ago when completely unwanted in betting but nobody told the horse that. Sat off a good speed and in the end, class got him home in a great return. Despite the wide gate, has to be rated highly.

11 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $8.00) deserves another chance. Thought his first two runs for the prep were great hence why I was keen on him in the Albury Cup. But the market took a set against him and it proved spot on as he was quite plain in the straight I thought behind Entente. He’s better than that and can win without surprising.

6 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $5.50) can be a big improver here from the resumption. She resumed behind So Si Bon several weeks back. Sat on a very slow speed, which suited her given she has a decent turn of foot and was first up. Just ran out of condition late in the piece. She’ll come on from that and second up last prep did beat Arcadia Queen.

11 Riddle Me That (Bet Now: $9.50) looks hard to beat for the in form Matt Laurie camp. Resumed three weeks ago in the Abell at the Valley where he chased strongly from the back and was good in defeat when second to Ancestry. Fitter and up to 1400m, he looks the one with upside and the right form.

4 Age Of Chivalry (Bet Now: $7.00) is three weeks between runs for the Ellerton/Zahra camp since resuming at the Valley where he was a touch disappointing I thought behind impressive winner Ancestry in a fast race. He is much better suited at 1400m and on a bigger track, can bounce back hard.

Don’t think you can go wrong backing 3 Ritratto (Bet Now: $5.50) given how tough he can be on speed, as we have seen over the past few months at Morphettville. Took a good one to beat him last time in Ironclad, who won the Golden Mile last Saturday and is looking a future Group l horse. He’ll land in front and give a great sight.

If they overdo it in front, can see 2 Skyman (Bet Now: $5.00) launching late. Was red hot on him in the Yarra Valley Cup and I thought he had his chance in the end when a narrow second to Hang Man. Back to the mile is interesting with him but can see good speed in front, so he should get his chance.

1 Holbein (Bet Now: $14.00) is bursting to win another race. Thought he should have won four weeks ago at Flemington. Pike just went too slow on him and waited too long. He was hard fit against horses resuming and given how slow he went, just played into the hands of his rivals and was nabbed late. Leads and rolls here, he’ll take running down.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 8 Najmaty

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Pretty Brazen

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 15 Kent Street

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 10

Leg Two: 2, 5, 8, 11, 15

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 10, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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