22/9/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby Trial day

Midweek racing in Melbourne this Wednesday heads to Flemington, highlighted by the Trials for both Oaks and Derby. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Forever And A Day (Bet Now: $3.70) on top in the opener. Danny O’Brien trained filly that had a two run Autumn prep to start her career, winning on debut in a hot maiden at Geelong. Then went to the Sires Produce at Morphettville when far from disgraced behind Biscayne Bay. Jumped out well leading and Lane, who ride in the jumpout, sticks.

1 New York Baby (Bet Now: $2.20) is a Written Tycoon filly resuming for Team Corstens. Hasn’t raced since her debut at Warrnambool in the VOBIS 2YO race during the Carnival where she was on speed throughout and was too good, and I’d say she was helped largely by the bias, so that, combined with just a fair jumpout to get ready, has me surprised she is favourite, but have to respect the stable and rider.

4 San Telmos Fire (Bet Now: $8.50) has race fitness under the belt, which should hold her in good stead. Wide throughout when debuting at Echcua but it mattered not to her because she was impressive when let down and drew clear late. Time was okay relative to the meeting and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

5 Cavalla (Bet Now: $9.50) for me. Price/Kent trained filly that is on debut and she has a bit going for her into this I feel. She showed in her jumpout she has good early toe, she can relax and she has drawn gate one, which is a big advantage given she has something to guide her down the straight.

1 Contemporary (Bet Now: $2.50) looks the standout of those that have jumped out at Flemington. Son of Exceed And Excel for James Cummings that won a jumpout down the straight here in solid time and looked to go about his business nicely. Has clear air from the outset and should be hard to beat.

8 Yakutsk (Bet Now: $10.00) is in with a shout here. Lloyd Kennewell trained filly that jumped out alongside Cavalla at Sandown. I thought she moved pretty well herself outside Cavalla and wasn’t really asked for a big effort. Drawn out, she has early speed, so perhaps can slide forward and prove hard to get past.

This looks a very tough race, so happy to speck one at a price in the shape of 5 Cheerful Moment (Bet Now: $23.00) for Lindsey Smith. Son of Mongolian Khan that last raced at Belmont back on September 4 when wide no cover, doing everything wrong in the run and dropping out. Sent to Victoria, looked to jump out well at Casterton and I’m just wondering if the stable thinks he is a Derby prospect. At the big odds, happy to find out.

Staying at 1400m is the only knock with 12 Cuban Link (Bet Now: $6.50). Greg Eurell trained filly that broke the maiden tag on her home track at Cranbourne last time. Took a while to get into her work but gee she was strong late and drew clear to win well. Off that, she’ll measure up. Just wish it was a mile for her.

11 Tramontana (Bet Now: $10.00) has to translate Synthetic form to the Turf, which is always buyer beware really, but the win was a strong one at Ballarat and was strong to the line/through it. Lands in a plum spot from the inside draw. Needs to improve, but could sneak a first four spot.

13 Teramia (Bet Now: $5.00) does look the safe option for Matt Laurie. This mare is several weeks between runs since racing down the straight here when back off the speed before slicing her way through and driving hard late when third to Zorro’s Dream. That form reads well and the tick over trial was a nice piece of work.

12 Veranskova (Bet Now: $4.60), ability wise, is the best horse in the race. He just can be a bit hot and cold, which is the knock with him, but he certainly has the talent to take this out. Came with a well timed run to win at Sandown last time out in a race where the form has been strong. Draws the right part of the track and will be charging late.

14 Ruby Street (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Kevin Corstens trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since March 11 at Pakenham over the mile where she was attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick, only to be nabbed late by Livvy Lass. Better over further, but has a good fresh record and has trialled well leading in.

2 Barb Raider (Bet Now: $1.65) looks to pick herself and is a standout on the program IMO. Talented filly for Jerome Hunter that steps up to 1800m after bolting up over the mile at Sandown, where the head gear applied really switched her on and she showed sharp change up speed to spank them. Produces that turn of foot here, they won’t be beating her.

1 Gonnadancealot (Bet Now: $6.50) has already secured her spot in the Oaks via a win over this track/distance in the Winter, so you’d assume this is a prep run to get ready for the better races and then the Oaks. But, she is the proven performer over this lot and stable gets Olly steering. Watch the market.

7 Vanzali (Bet Now: $41.00) is an improver for Nigel Blackiston. This filly is a few weeks between runs since racing on the Ballarat Synthetic where she got a fair way back in the run but liked the way she finished off her race when second. Winkers on, she’ll do no work from the draw and is must for exotics.

Keen on three horses here. Back the first to win, the long shot 1×3 and you can’t go wrong. On top is 8 Inverell (Bet Now: $4.60), a Clayton Douglas trained son of Shocking who has been kept on ice since a debut win at Sale. He made a mess of them on speed under Jamie Kah. There is a bit of depth to this line up but he looks above average and confident he measures up.

The other key winning hope is 5 Footlights (Bet Now: $4.00) for the Busuttin/Young. He has been nominated for a race or two in Sydney, so that is what they think of him. Should have won last time and made it 2/2 to start his career but had no luck at a vital stage. Gets the jockey upgrade and bigger track, 1800m, looks an ideal set up.

11 Storm De Lune (Bet Now: $15.00) lacks the profile of some of these, but I think he’s talented. Caught the eye on debut at Benalla before going to Moe where he made a sustained run from off the speed but gee he was strong late and drew clear late. He’s right in this and is big odds I feel.

3 Mr Brightside (Bet Now: $2.00) is also nominated for Saturday so will be interesting to see where he lines up. If he runs here, then clearly he’s hard to beat. Looking to make it five on the bounce, the latest win being a dominant win at the Valley on Feehan Day. He’s heading in the right direction and can win again.

8 Seiners Express (Bet Now: $7.50) has been up a little while for the Maher/Eustace stable but is racing pretty well and does save his best for Flemington. Last run was August 21 at Morphettville when a close up second to a then in form Noname Lane. Back to his pet track/distance, he can threaten.

13 Johandough (Bet Now: $35.00) is better suited over further, but she is a genuine mare. Resumes for Thomas Carberry, having not raced since May 1 when third at Sandown behind Grand Promenade, a then very much in form stayer. Can sprint well fresh and gets in okay after the claim.

Waddle the finger and hope for the best. 13 Excelida (Bet Now: $6.50) hasn’t won since Moses parted the sea, but I just think this set up for her is ideal. Real eye catcher at Sandown last time after getting a mile out of her ground behind Frankie Pinot. Gets to her home track, gets three/four wide cover, an ideal drag up, and will be strong late.

2 He’s The Reel Deel (Bet Now: $2.70) has done little wrong this time in and is hard to beat for Matty Brown. Put together a couple of sharp wins before racing at Sandown where he was near the speed throughout and battled on well when second to Frankie Pinot. Gets in nicely after the claim and is hard to beat.

11 Naval Envoy (Bet Now: $67.00) is big odds here and I can certainly entertain him as a first four threat. Outclassed in the Heath 1100 behind Masked Crusader. Then went to Sandown when wide no cover and feeling the pinch late. Should get an economical run this time around and I’ll be including in the Quaddie.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Barb Raider

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Mr Brightside

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 5 Cheerful Moment

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 5, 7, 8, 11

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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