16/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Northerly Stakes day

The Ascot Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Northerly Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

Northerly Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Northerly Stakes

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1300m back to 1200m is a slight query with 2 Devoted (Bet Now: $2.40), but he does look a hood prospect for Team Williams. That 1300m run was the debut at Northam. He took a little while to get into his work but surged late and got there, just, with a massive gap to third. If the speed is on, he will be strong late.

5 Hardly Ever (Bet Now: $2.60) should appreciate the rise to 1200m for Simon Miller. Debut run came in August at Belmont over 1000m where she attacked the line with real purpose to record an impressive win. Kept up to the mark with a trial and should relish the extra 200m.

7 Yemen Lass (Bet Now: $41.00) will need luck from the tricky draw but I think Luke Fernie has a handy filly on his hands. Three weeks between runs when a maiden winner at Northam last time, sitting on speed and fighting on strongly to get the job done. She will settle handy and try hard. Knockout chance.

Tricky race for the stayers. Landed with 2 Baramagic (Bet Now: $4.00), who I think has returned in good order off two runs this time in, the latest seeing him attempt to lead throughout at Belmont and just feeling the pinch late behind Sugar Cain. Like him up in trip, potentially gets a soft lead and will prove hard to run down.

1 Roman Flirt (Bet Now: $2.30) is on the seven day back up after winning last Saturday here in good style. Jury was out on her prior but lovely ride from Pike saw her get the job done. The trip should be fine for her and good lead that Pike sticks. She’ll take some beating.

5 Queen Takes King (Bet Now: $6.50) deserves another chance. Resumed over 1500m at Belmont three weeks back where I thought she could run a cheeky race fresh but she didn’t buy a shot at all and was quite plain. Better for that under the belt and up in trip, an improved showing is on the cards.

Siding with 2 Image Keeper (Bet Now: $3.30). I think back on a firmer deck, he can bounce back. Resumed on wet ground at Belmont when attempting to lead throughout and tried hard, but couldn’t finish it off on the ground. Tick over trial was strong and back on a firmer deck, he can bounce back.

1 Apple Schnaps (Bet Now: $4.00) has to lump 61kg but he is a horse that is in form for Lindsey Smith. Several weeks between runs since racing over 1000m at Belmont when back off the speed and worked home strongly when a narrow third. Up to 1200m I like and good lead that Pike sticks.

6 Smashing (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Neville Parnham trained mare that is a few weeks between runs since racing at Belmont. She had a suck run behind the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth. She does try hard but lacks the killer blow. First four threat.

5 Rebel Knight (Bet Now: $4.80) for me. His run had merit last Saturday here. Mr Delegator spanked them but had an absolute picnic in front and those behind, including Rebel Knight, had no chance. Should land in a plum spot from the draw and is hard to beat.

2 Karijini Aurora (Bet Now: $3.30) needs to bring her Belmont form to Ascot but Pike sticking helps the cause. He rode the mare a treat when a strong winner at Belmont last time out. She’s in career best form and maps super from the gate. Just needs to handle the track.

3 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $41.00) has a good record at Ascot and can sneak a first four spot. He ran two weeks back at Kalgoorlie when near a very moderate tempo and in a sit/sprint, he just lacked the speed in the legs but was sound when fourth. Not sure he wins, but one for exotics.

Looks pretty straight forward here with 6 Spritely Star (Bet Now: $1.60) for Team Williams. This mare resumed at Northam where she had a suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and if you took the shorts, it was a painless watch. Has a bit of quality about her and should be winning again.

9 My Fury (Bet Now: $6.00) takes on the older horses here but one thing she has going for her is hard race fitness, plus is a filly in form. Won the maiden impressively two back at Belmont before repeating the dose in style at Northam. She’s in a purple patch and will run a bold race.

4 Jag The Joker (Bet Now: $27.00) can run an improved race. Just went too keen in the run in the Ladies Day Cup at Northam last time, which took away something from her finale when sixth to Celebrity Witness. First four threat if she can relax in the run.

5 Vadette De Star (Bet Now: $3.20) is a daughter of Zoustar for Simon Miller that resumes and I think she can resume a winner. Did a good job in four runs as a three year old. Despite only winning one race, she showed good talent. Trialled well leading in, needs luck from the draw but I’m happy to be with her.

10 My Blueboy (Bet Now: $27.00) is five weeks between runs since racing at Belmont where he was just off the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Come Magic. He has a solid record at Ascot and with luck from a tricky gate, I think he can be around the mark.

6 Cockyjoy (Bet Now: $20.00) is on the seven day back up after racing here last Saturday. She got a fair way back in the run and was never really a winning factor but was good late. If the inside gate is used to advantage, she is in with a shout at a likely decent price.

I’m going to speck 5 Mervyn (Bet Now: $11.00) each way. Luke Fernie trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since July 31 when an all the way winner at Belmont on testing ground. Resumes without a public trial, but 1000m at Ascot for a speed horse, he is suited to run a bold race.

2 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $3.00) is a quality sprinter for Neville Parnham that has been kept on ice since resuming in the Belmont Newmarket where he seemed to have every chance when third. Saves his best for Ascot, heading towards the Winterbottom and his best is clearly good enough.

7 Rock Magic (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty for the Gangemi team that resumes. He’s been around forever it seems like but continues to race at such a decent level. He is a good sprinter fresh and has trialled up quite well leading in. Not sure he wins but a first four threat.

First up at 1400m I love for 10 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $12.00), who like most engaged here, are heading towards the Railway/Kingston Town path. Has looked to trial in great order to get ready for his return and provided he doesn’t get too far back, he’ll take beating here.

Great to see 4 Western Empire (Bet Now: $3.10) back at the races. High quality four year old that resumes for Team Williams, having not raced since taking out the WA Derby in the Autumn. Whether the target is the Group l races, or the Perth Cup, both? Either way, he has class and it’ll carry him a long way.

1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $9.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the program. He is a high class galloper that would spank these if he was anywhere near right. The question being where he is at? Two trials this prep to get ready for his return, so might need the run, but he has the form on the board.

Going to have a throw at the stumps in the get out via 8 Point Taken (Bet Now: $23.00). She has a good record at Ascot and drawn well, I think she can run a positive race. Has got a fair way back this time but does like sitting near the speed, so I’m hoping the inside gate is used to advantage. If so, she will run a much better race.

12 Real Charisma (Bet Now: $1.90) is a talented mare for Team Williams that resumes. This girl was 2/2 when last in work, sitting back off the speed and finishing best each time. Good trial to get ready and if she gets luck from the gate, I’m sure she will look the winner at some stage.

1 Moschard (Bet Now: $11.00) should be suited back to this level. Thrown in the deep end last start in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie and didn’t disgrace himself at all I thought. Should get a lovely run from the draw and his best is certainly good enough to take this out.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 6 Spritely Star

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 Last Of The Line

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Point Taken

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7

Leg Three: 4, 10

Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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