19/2/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Hobartville Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Rosehill on Saturday for Hobartville Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I am quite keen here on 5 Steplee (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) for Rod Northam despite a horror gate. Wide no cover in a total forgive here fresh. He then went to Newcastle where he looked like he would run last on the turn but balanced up and charged late to finish second in what was a hot 68. Hard fit now, he’ll take a power of beating off last start.

6 Golden Point (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but is holding his form really well for Stirling Osland and I do feel that a rise to 1400m is ideal. He got a fair way out of his ground over 1200m at Randwick two weeks ago but finished his race with purpose when third to Testator Silens. 1400m looks the only query, but even then, I think it’s okay, so he’s hard to beat.

1 Commando Hunt (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) has a good second up record and there is a sense of timing about him. He trialled up super prior to resuming at Randwick where he didn’t get the rub of the green and I thought should have finished closer. Fitter and up to 1400m, I think he only runs well.

Have to be with 2 Shadow Crush (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS). His late splits were incredible when winning at Randwick two weeks ago, and really, they were splits of a Stakes class horse, which is where I think he’ll head if he holds his form. Hard fit, racing well and with all this speed in front, I want to be on a fit closer, and he’s that.

1 Rule Of Law (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) could take over from Superman when it comes to the definition of flying. This horse has been an absolute revelation since being gelded and he has continued a super rise in the racing ranks, bolting up here three weeks ago, with good assistance from the bias, but that aside, really hard to ignore the way he’s racing.

4 Emanate (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) should be better for the run under the belt. She resumed two weeks back at Randwick where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how she raced but still a definite pass mark to my eye behind Shadow Crush. She has a good second up record and the form around her reads super.

Happy to speck 13 The Fossil (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) each way for Sam Kavanagh. He was good late here fresh in a Midway behind Crosscheck. He then went to Newcastle where he got quite keen in the run but did make up ground late in a good effort behind Fill Of Fun, who won at Canterbury last Friday night, so the form reads well and third up, at 1500m, he looks well placed to run a positive race.

Back to 1500m I do like for 9 French Emperor (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). On face value, he was pretty plain at Randwick two weeks ago, but I just think he was ridden too warm and it left him empty late. I reckon with a more conservative steer, you’ll see a better horse, and his best is clearly good enough.

4 Miss Redoble (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is racing really well this time in for Tracey Bartley. Surprised most with a win two back at Warwick Farm before going to the Kenso trakc where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bedford Square. I don’t think I could back her to win, but a must for exotics.

3 Expat (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) looks the main pace reference and recent meetings here suggests on speed is the spot to be, so I’m in her corner. Loved the way she toughed it out to win the Belle Of The Turf last time at Gosford back in December, with that win earning her a crack at a prep aimed at Group l targets ie the Coolmore Classic. She should lead these for fun and we know she’s a hard horse to get past.

1 Krone (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) would love a drop of rain to hit. The 2021 Coolmore Classic winner hasn’t been too bad in a couple of runs back from a spell, her last run being a solid effort in the Magic Millions F&M. Loves Rosehill and if the rain does come, I think she is right in the mix as a winning threat.

2 Rocha Clock (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare for John O’Shea that resumes. Had a three run Spring prep, the latest run being a close up second in the Hot Danish behind Electric Girl. She normally gets better as the prep goes on, but her two trials suggest she’s flying. Watch the market.

The weather is crucial to 1 Mazu (Bet Now: $4.60). If the rain doesn’t hit too hard and the track can remain in the Good range, he’s the one to beat. Anything worse, and I think he struggles because even though he has won on soft ground, he is more explosive on firmer footing and he looks to have trialled up super in readiness for his return.

0) is the best horse in the race, quite comfortably IMO. Just not sure the Rosehill 1100m is a set up he will enjoy given his racing pattern but no denying the talent he has and he was outstanding fresh at Canterbury when just missing out on picking up Sky Command. He’ll be very strong late.

7 Minsk Moment (Bet Now: $7.50) has a tricky draw to overcome but if you go back to the Spring, after his first up win, he was touted as #1 seed for the Coolmore. It didn’t pan out that way when he eventually got to Flemington but he was far from disgraced in defeat. Unbeaten fresh and looks to have trialled well.

13 Queen Of The Ball (Bet Now: $2.50) is one of the hardest to beat. Bias was with her when bolting up in the Widden, but she ran fast time compared to the Canonbury and the form has been great, with Revolutionary Miss bolting up in a Blue Diamond Prelude last Saturday, so she’s a key threat.

Just two soft trials to get ready for 1 Shalatin (Bet Now: $7.00), but on potential, he could blow these away and start Golden Slipper favourite. He threatened to blow them away in the Spring but his racing manners and pattern let him down. Just the two soft trials, but he has quality and will be strong late.

2 Best Of Bordeaux (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a pretty sharp colt for Kacy Fogden. He had the bias in his corner when winning the Canonbury, but that aside, he was dominant and strong to the line in bolting up. This will be the true guide as to whether or not he’s indeed a Golden Slipper contender.

1 Entente (Bet Now: $7.50) is a son of Dundeel for the WaterBott camp that is resuming. He had a pretty good Spring prep, highlighted by a win in the Colin Stephen and then beaten a lip in the Metropolitan. I’ve loved the way he has closed off in a couple of trials and to my eye is ready to go fresh. Market will be a good guide as to whether that assumption is right or wrong.

8 Mightybeel (Bet Now: $3.10) is unbeaten second up and appeals. He comes through the Frosty Rocks race and his effort from last to get as close as he did was excellent I thought, producing some of the best late splits of the race. Much better set up this time around, so he commands respect.

11 No Compromise (Bet Now: $8.50) is flying for Chris Waller and confident he can confirm that with a win here. He was no hope, like every other horse, behind Frosty Rocks two weeks ago but loved the way he kept finding the line to finish third. Hard fit now, and up to 1900m on the home track, it all points to him running well.

It’s not far off D-Day for 1 Anamoe (Bet Now: $1.60) IMO. Two starts ago, he arguably should have won a Cox Plate, but the boom on him is massive and to live up to that, he has to be winning this and the Randwick Guineas. Bias was against him in the Expressway so despite being beaten, his run had plenty of merit. Fitter, up to 1400m, back to his own age, it looks an ideal set up.

2 Converge (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to have come back in good order. I thought he did more than enough fresh in the Eskimo Prince. He was there to win and beat Paulele but 1200m fresh, nearer the inside, his condition just told late and had to settle for a close up third. Fitter, up to 1400m, I’d love to see him ridden with a sit so he can launch.

11 Silent Impact (Bet Now: $6.50) is hard fit and racing well for the WaterBott camp. Both runs this time in have come at Randwick, winning fresh before bumping into a potentially smart sprinter in Maotai. I do think the rise to 1400m is ideal and he does have a fitness edge over key rivals.

7 Dream Circle (Bet Now: $5.00) is going okay for David Payne but I do think a rise in trip is ideal. Really caught the eye two back behind Mr Mosaic when a fast finishing third. He then went to Rosehill again, had to contend with bias, but was good late I thought behind the very much in form Rule Of Law. He can bounce back here.

12 Invinciano (Bet Now: $5.50) doesn’t want the rain to hit because she is a dead set dry tracker. The rain came last Saturday and that put pay to her chances but I thought she was game in defeat behind Le Gai Soleil, who is a Stakes class mare. Down in the weights, hard fit and hopefully on a firmer deck, she can bounce back.

6 New Arrangement (Bet Now: $6.00) can sprint well fresh, as he did last prep, and I think he can do something similar here. Just one soft trial to get ready for his return, but it was a good piece of work and liked the way he finished the trial off. He’ll likely sit back and launch late.

If there are feature races in mind for 3 Dajraan (Bet Now: $2.40), he has to keep stepping up to the plate with wins in these kind of races and I think he’ll win again. He was backed as if unbeatable when making his Australian debut at Warwick Farm and the support was justified, with class coming to the fore in a strong win. He can only improve off and is hard to beat.

11 Steel Diamond (Bet Now: $7.00) is bursting to win one. Ran over 1300m at Randwick a fortnight back against the Mares and she worked home pretty well from off the speed but had to settle for a third to stablemate Joviality. I think 1400m here looks ideal as does the likely firm deck.

4 Ulysses (Bet Now: $14.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Freedman since racing at this track/distance where he was close up in a bunched finish, won by bolter Impasse in a messy race. He has since had a tick over trial and looked to go quite well there to my eye. He can run well here.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 3 Dajraan

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Expat

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 7 Dream Circle

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 8, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2

Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 9, 12

Leg Four: 3

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