2/4/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Karrakatta Plate day

Nine races have been set down for Ascot on Saturday for Karrakatta Plate Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Leica Jaguar (Bet Now: $3.80) is knocking on the door to win one for Neville Parnham. Ran over 1000m here last Saturday where he just took a while to wind into his work but was good late when a closing third. I do think the extra 100m suits and drawn out, should get clear air to wind into his work.

1 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: $5.50) is back to 1100m for Martin Allan after resuming over 1200m at Pinjarra. He ran his usual honest race and closed off okay when fourth after being specked at odds in the market, which is a positive sign. Back to 1100m is a query, but is a proven metro performer and gets in well after the claim.

5 Lord Lonsdale (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Kieran McDonagh trained gelding that resumes and although he is better suited over slightly further, he has talent. Hasn’t raced since June 19 at Belmont when down the track over 1400m behind the then in form I’m Pretty. Trialled well leading into this and with this stable and their first up runners, they could blow like the wind in betting or be smashed. Market will be the guide.

I don’t see back to 1100m being an issue for 6 Harmika (Bet Now: $2.45). Got the job done over 1200m here last time when on speed under CJP and in a driving go, she had the momentum and was too good. Game second to Metallon the start prior over 1000m here but I do feel in between, 1100m, is a sweet spot.

2 Metallon (Bet Now: $4.80) is a promising animal for Todd Harvey. Got the better of Harmika first up before racing here two weeks ago when getting the dream sit behind the speed and took a while to wind into his work but once he did, he put them away and was impressive. Extra 100m looks ideal and should take beating.

3 State Of Power (Bet Now: $5.50) should be suited up to 1100m. She ran in the Metallon race from two weeks back. She was a notable drifter in betting and tried hard from the back but couldn’t reel them in when third. If she can settle a pair or two closer in the run, I think she’ll be dangerous.

5 Otheroneson (Bet Now: $1.70) on top. Dan Morton trained three year old that resumed over 1200m here when leading and showed good fight late, only nabbed late by Harmika. The rise to 1400m I do like for him, he should land on speed and with upside to come, he’ll take running down.

1 River Rubicon (Bet Now: $2.80) has been racing too well to dismiss off one average run. Given the market expectation, it was average, but market hat off, the run was very good against the older horses in what was a tidy 72+. Back to his own age, he should prove hard to beat.

4 Kaymay (Bet Now: $7.00) has returned in really good order. Resumed with a second over 1200m here before racing at this track/distance when landing on speed. Just a matter of pushing the button and once it was, away she went and she was dominant. Good Spring form and the way she has returned, she commands respect.

I want to butter up with 5 Playing Marika (Bet Now: $7.00). Was on her back at odds last Saturday when resuming at this trip. Got a fair way back in the run and worked to the line pretty well I thought behind Sentimental Queen. Encouraging return and I think can give this a shake.

1 Son Of A God (Bet Now: $2.90) clearly races best when he can find the front and once he found the front in the Grandstand Cup two weeks ago here, it was race over and he made a mess of them from the front. If he does find the top again, he’ll take beating again I feel despite this race having depth.

2 Coming Around (Bet Now: $8.50) is racing okay without winning. He seemingly had his chance behind Son Of A God in the Grandstand Cup but stuck on and was gallant in defeat I thought despite being held. Not sure he can turn the tables, but he’s an absolute must for exotics.

7 Gold Merits (Bet Now: $2.70) is flying for Jim Taylor and she’s bursting to win another race. Really good from the back two starts ago over 1500m here. Then came back to this track/distance and surged hard again, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Stella Fair. If she’s within range 400m out, I think she’ll be awfully hard to hold out.

2 Time Scale (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Simon Miller trained mare that is racing in solid form at the moment. Attempted to lead throughout over this track/distance two weeks ago and gave a solid kick under Holly Watson but couldn’t quite finish it off when third. I reckon with a bunny to chase, she’ll be more effective.

4 Koranis (Bet Now: $7.50) is better suited over a tad further but is a capable horse when right. Formerly with Jarrad Noske but now finds himself with Michael Grantham. Hasn’t raced since December 11 here over 1800m when producing an end of prep run behind Holy Enchantment. Liked the way he has trialled and first run for new stable, watch the market.

7 He’s Gold (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to map ideally and despite being a three year old taking on older horses, his 3YO form does read very well. Resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago and battled away pretty well from off the speed behind a talented animal, Metallon. He gets the dream run from the draw, has upside and the right form lines.

2 How’s The Serenity (Bet Now: $2.00) is a query on a couple of fronts, those being back to 1000m and drawn wide, but she looked like a star when she won two back over 1200m here before trying to repeat the dose a week later and just got the staggers late when third. If back to 1000m is no issue and she gets the luck from the gate, she’ll take beating.

4 Costa Del Santo (Bet Now: $51.00) is a son of Ouqba that resumes for Jackie Panizza. This guy doesn’t have the best of records at Ascot, but those three runs came at the end of last prep and to my eye he just looked a tired horse so perhaps that record is misleading. Might need the run, but his form earlier last prep looks solid enough for this.

I think only bad luck is in the way of 10 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $1.70) remaining unbeaten. IMO, the best juvenile I’ve seen this season is Coolangatta. Hot on her heels is this filly. She has been sparkling in two career outings. Should eat up 1200m and with normal luck, she just wins this.

3 Left The Building (Bet Now: $7.00) will be strong late. Luke Fernie trained colt that charged late from off the speed to resume a winner in the Perth Stakes two weeks ago. The tick for him is that he ran faster time than Amelia’s Jewel the same afternoon, so that holds him in good stead to run well against her. Beating her is another matter.

2 Street Parade (Bet Now: $9.50) should be around the mark. He was given a peach steer in the Perth Stakes and was hailed as the winner but was nabbed late by Left The Building in a driving go. Off that, I doubt he turns the tables, but has hard race experience/fitness under the belt.

2 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $2.30) is flying for Michael Grantham. Had been bursting to win a race for some time and it finally came three weeks ago, with a positive ride from Chris Parnham ultimately being the difference between winning and losing. Off that, he commands respect here.

7 National Guard (Bet Now: $8.50) is racing well for Lindsey Smith. He ran over the mile here two weeks ago when on speed and tried hard. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Big Bada Boom, who failed last Saturday, but not sure he handled the back up. Back to 1400m for National Guard is a big tick and maps super.

9 Misty Lad (Bet Now: $26.00) lacks the class of some of these, but is honest and could pinch a first four spot. Ran over this track/distance last Saturday and worked to the line okay without really threatening when fourth. Was 1920m back to 1400m in under a week, so not sure what to make of him and the thought process of connections, but the run was solid. First four contender.

9 General Grant (Bet Now: $8.00) on top in the get out. On the quick back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday. He got back in the run and didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Recapitulate. I think the rise to 1800m suits him and does have more upside than most.

1 Sowar (Bet Now: $7.50) is three weeks between runs for Steve Wolfe since winning over 2100m. It was a driving go in the run to the line and he came with a well timed run from off the speed under McGruddy to nail them late. Back to 1800m a query but hard to knock the way he’s going.

10 Megazone (Bet Now: $21.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday where he was specked at odds and didn’t do a bad job over an unsuitable trip behind Brooklyn Pier. He hasn’t won in a while but draws soft and gets right down in the weights after the claim.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 10 Amelia’s Jewel

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Harmika

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 General Grant

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 10

Leg Two: 10

Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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