30/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Ngawyni Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Belmont on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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I am giving 4 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $3.60) another chance. She ran two weeks ago in a strong 78 and got a mile out of her ground. She did make up some headway but was never really a threat behind Sluice Box. Gets Blinkers first time and if she can settle closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

5 Black Fantasy (Bet Now: $2.10) is a three year old that takes on the older horses but hard to knock the way he’s racing. Loved the way he dug in to win the Belmont Classic last time. He was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

6 Majinika (Bet Now: $15.00) is rising 11 years of age but has found positive form and can certainly hold it. Ran in the Reliable Star race from three weeks back where he tracked up with purpose and loomed to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up third. Can win without surprising.

2 Wilchino (Bet Now: $1.85) should win, all things being equal. High class mare in this part of the world who was a clear forgive in the Beaufine, sitting wide no cover on speed, and was keen in the run, with that hard effort just getting to her late. Has to carry 59kg, but she is the class runner and gets Parnham back aboard.

60kg at 1000m will stretch 1 Mervyn (Bet Now: $7.50) out but his wet track credentials ensure he’s right in the mix. He looked all over a winner in the Beaufine a few weeks ago but was nabbed right on the peg by Nerodio, who launched late. He will give an almighty sight and if you are backing him, hold your breath the last 100m or so.

5 Jericho Missile (Bet Now: $17.00) is a knockout chance at odds. He was down the track in the Beaufine, but his finale was solid enough after getting a mile back, and his last 200m was actually pretty good. If he’s within range, and brings his absolute best, he’s capable of threatening without surprising.

I think 10 Birthday Ballot (Bet Now: $9.00) can make a winning debut for Neville Parnham. She had a Summer prep with two trials, nothing flash, and was spelled. She’s come back and her recent trial win here was impressive, going through her gears nicely under minimal pressure to win. Tricky gate, but Chris Parnham sticks and it looks a winnable 2YO contest.

1 El Patron (Bet Now: $3.90) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago and was very good from the back when fourth to a potential WA Guineas/Kingston Town prospect in Aztec Ruler. Extra 100m is ideal and has the hard race fitness/experience.

8 Exporose (Bet Now: $9.50) has done little wrong in two career outings for Jim Taylor. She has finished runner up on both occasions, the latest being at the midweeks over 1000m here when near the speed and fighting on well. 1300m is a query, but a soft lead could offset that.

1 Arnie’s Boy (Bet Now: $4.80) is holding his form nicely and in a relatively thin race, I think he is clearly the one to beat. Big win over this track/distance two back before going to 1400m two weeks ago and looked the winner when he presented, but was nabbed late by I’m Pretty. Back up to the mile a tick, he handles wet ground, in form…can’t get away from him.

2 Inflation (Bet Now: $9.50) will jump on the bunny and give a sight, which is what he did a fortnight back here and he gave you a run for your money, but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to I’m Pretty. Has a good track/distance record and with his racing style, he’s in with a shout.

10 Nick Of Time (Bet Now: $26.00) can finish off his race nicely if he’s within range. Just wasn’t entirely suited by the race shape at Northam but was good late without threatening behind I’m Not For Sale. He has a solid record at this track and if he’s within range, he can certainly be dangerous.

Takes on the older horses, but I am keen on three year old filly 10 Flower In The Wind (Bet Now: $2.15). She took on the boys two weeks ago in the Belmont Classic and was super from the back, just missing out on the win and outstayed late by a hard fit/in form Black Fantasy. No horse of that quality here and I think she only has to hold her form to win again IMO.

2 Sunsphere (Bet Now: $8.50) has been up forever it seems like but he’s holding his form really well. He ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where the track became bottomless due to the rain but despite that, he worked home strongly when second to Alimentaria. The track will be wet again, but gets Holly Watson back aboard and commands respect.

Wetter the better for 8 Alimentaria (Bet Now: $7.50) so with significant rain forecast for Friday, I think she comes right into play. The smart ones knew she was a swimmer and once the rain came last Wednesday, they backed her at odds, and the bets were landed. Dominant win and off that, she can take this out.

If the first up run hasn’t busted him, 1 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $3.00) is the likely winner. Resumed two weeks ago at this track/distance and was very good in defeat after sitting wide/no cover for the trip, fighting on gamely and was only beaten off late by Position Of Power. Tricky draw again but the resumption was too good to ignore.

5 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $6.00) loves getting his toe in so he is a definite winning chance. He got conditions to suit a fortnight back, he was backed with confidence at a price and the bets were landed with a dominant finale. He gets similar conditions again, he’s found winning form, hard to beat.

7 Buster Bash (Bet Now: $9.00) is a progressive gelding for David Harrison that resumes. This guy is a swimmer, albeit better suited over further than 1200m, so it will be interesting to see how he goes. Normally gets better as the prep goes on, but stable is going nicely and with his wet track stats, I’m not penning him.

1 Ohbeeh (Bet Now: $20.00) is the big, big improver as he drops miles in grade/depth. Three runs for the prep, the first two seeing him bump into Startrade and last time, he bumped into Secret Plan. Those two would be $1.10 in this race, so that form has to read well for what looks a moderate 1MW.

8 What A Prince (Bet Now: $12.00) doesn’t win out of turn but gee he is a model of consistency. Game third here two back behind Find Your Man before going to Pinjarra where he bumped into a handy one in Oly’s Choice. He is hard fit, racing well and has to be respected.

Fascinating runner is 3 Llessur (Bet Now: $8.00), who resumes for Michael Lane. She can be a hard mare to follow and trust with confidence, but when she is on, she is definitely Saturday class. She resumes without a trial but first up in town tells me she’s ready to rock and roll. Hopefully the market agrees.

5 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $9.00) can easily bounce back here. He was good in defeat two back behind Thomas Magnum before racing here last two weeks and in an on pace dominated affair, he failed to fire and be clearly forgiving when down the track behind Capital Flight. He’ll run a beauty if he can sit closer in the run.

12 Valency (Bet Now: $6.50) is a progressive filly that returned to racing with a pretty impressive win over 1000m here at the midweeks, getting the suck run behind the speed before angling clear and driving hard late to win. Better suited over further so up to 1200m and with upside, she rates highly.

9 Forever Dreaming (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Colin Webster trained filly that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the latter part of the Summer when thrown in the deep end in the Ascot 1000 Guineas and was just outclassed. Looked to trial well enough to my eye and will be strong late.

6 Ghost Who Walks (Bet Now: $7.50) has been excellent this time in for Neville Parnham. Last couple of runs have come at this track/distance, the latest being two weeks ago when a closing third to a ripper in Sneaky Chance. If the track isn’t too bad, he’ll take beating against these.

10 State Of Power (Bet Now: $4.40) has the wet track stats on the board to give this a shake. They rode her positively two weeks ago and she looked the winner when she kicked but was nabbed late by Capital Flight. I reckon with a more conservative steer, she’ll attack the line much better.

7 Olga Luisa (Bet Now: $13.00) is 2/2 on heavy ground and with her jump/run style, she’ll give an almighty sight. Ran over this track/dsitance four weeks back where she led at a solid clip and gave a good kick from the front, just feeling the pinch late, but brave when third. Last bit will test, she’ll give a great run for your money.

12 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the one to beat IMO. Quality filly that was seven weeks between runs when a big winner at this track/distance two weeks ago, launching from the back to get the win. You’d think there is improvement to come, so with that in mind, she is on top.

4 Run D’Affaire Run (Bet Now: $12.00) deserves a crack at metro level again. He is a gelding who has found a real purple patch his last couple, leading throughout to win two on the bounce at Pinjarra on wet ground. On speed/fence was red hot on Wednesday here, so if that continues here, she’s right in the mix.

8 Vital Flirt (Bet Now: $10.00) is a swimmer and gets conditions to suit. She ran over this track/distance three weeks back where she loomed to win and looked all over a winner but she doesn’t have the toughness of No Apology and that horse kicked back hard to win. Conditions to suit, she’s found form, she commands respect.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 12 The Velvet Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Wilchino

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Ohbeeh

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Two: 5, 8, 9, 12

Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10

Leg Four: 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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