17/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Nicopolis Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting has been set down for Belmont on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out six metres from the 1600m-400m; Out three metres for the remainder.

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1 Saintorio (Bet Now: $3.70) is the class of the field and that will carry him a long way here. He resumed here three weeks ago and was very good from off the speed when second to a quality animal, Baby Paris. Fitter and up to 1300m, with a class edge, he rates highly.

Back to 1300m I hate for 2 Saloon Bar (Bet Now: $2.50) but he strikes a very winnable race and comes here in winning form after breaking the maiden tag over 1400m at Northam last time. Did he beat much? I’m saying no, but his confidence should be up and with the small field, he won’t be far away.

4 Central Force (Bet Now: $17.00) creates interest. He debuts for Michael Grantham and this stable has been lethal when training for the Cerise/White. Recent trial he was pushed out but responded well enough to my eye when third. Needs to improve to win, but in an astute camp to do so.

Fitter and up to 1400m, it looks a good race for 2 Henchard (Bet Now: $3.20). He resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago when back, wide with cover, and spotted those in front too much head start, but really liked the way he finished his race off behind Cold Shizzle. Much better set up this time around and if he’s within range on the turn, I think he wins.

3 Vogue’s Choice (Bet Now: $2.90) is on the seven day back up for Hayden Ballantyne after winning last Saturday at this track/distance. She got a cheap run on speed and was off and gone with full momentum while Western Knight had zero luck in behind. Harder here, but good racing style, she’ll take beating.

Back to 1400m I find interesting with 1 Tinsnip (Bet Now: $41.00) but his best is clearly good enough to take this out. He ran over the mile two weeks back here and I thought the ride was average, not showing much intent, when midfield behind Rejuva King. Gets the claim for Holly Watson, he is one for multiples.

1200m is short of ideal for 3 Karli’s Karma (Bet Now: $2.70) but gee she looks a promising mare. She is first up after a very fruitful Summer/Autumn prep, where she confirmed herself as a city class performer. Let down with real purpose to win a recent Lark Hill trial and I think she’s clearly the one to beat.

5 Kick A Goal Son (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Jason Miller trained son of All American that resumes and I think can be dangerous fresh. He hasn’t raced since Feb 20 at Pinjarra when close up behind Jadavi. Better suited over further, but has trialled up nicely and for mine has got a good grounding to sprint well fresh.

8 Real Danger (Bet Now: $6.50) just has to stretch her brilliance to 1200m to be a key threat. Not sure you can read too much into the Northam win last time given it was essentially a dash up the straight in a 1000m contest. If she gets a soft trip, 1200m will be okay, and has a fitness edge.

3 State Of Power (Bet Now: $2.30) is the straight bat option. Simon Miller trained mare that ran last Saturday at this track/distance where she was on speed and she gave a solid kick, only getting nabbed late by Kia Ora Star, who was sneaky flying and that win confirmed it. Think with a bunny to chase, Olga Luisa, she’ll be more effective I think.

5 Pixie Chix (Bet Now: $4.50) looks to be in for a good prep. This mare resumed three weeks back at this track/distance when wide no cover on speed and actually did a good job to fight on like she did when third to State Of Power. With luck from the gate here, she’ll take beating.

6 Olga Luisa (Bet Now: $7.50) will jump on the bunny and run boldly. She did that just over two weeks back when rolling on speed and she gave a good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Double Jeopardy. Last bit will test, but I think she’ll run well and look the winner for a fair chunk.

7 Cheerful Moment (Bet Now: $6.00) gets the nod. He has been runner up in both runs this time in, the latest coming last Wednesday over 1400m here where he attempted to lead throughout and he just couldn’t sprint when asked, only picking up late when second. As good as Holly Watson is on front runners, I like Azzopardi taking over given he’s a strong rider and will lift it late.

4 Catalpa (Bet Now: $2.25) is knocking on the door to win again. He looked the winner a fortnight back here but was pipped on the peg by Rejuva King, with the bob of the head being the difference. Maps ideally from the gate and I think on a firmer deck, he’ll be much better off.

3 Tri For Us (Bet Now: $5.50) might want one more but I think she’s in for a good prep. Resumed over 1300m here two weeks back and while she was never a factor, she was good late behind Mood Swings. The rise to the mile I do think is a positive. Just needs luck from the wide gate but I think she’s returned well.

You’d struggle to find a more unlucky horse in Australia in recent weeks than 7 Real Grace (Bet Now: $3.80). She has raced, officially, the last two weeks, but really, it has been two extra barrier trials. She’s had no chance to build the revs and has gone around under a hold late. If she gets the rub of the green this time around, touch wood, she’ll be very hard to beat.

5 Alsephina (Bet Now: $2.80) has done little wrong in her five start career. Ran here a fortnight back and looked the winner when she loomed out wide but Ginger Green got the split and bloused her late. Third up and hard fit now, I think she is the main and perhaps only threat to Real Grace.

8 Secret Statue (Bet Now: $15.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where he got back in the run and was good late when third to Enticing in the same race Real Grace was luckless in. Has placed at this track/distance previously and maps idealy again.

Something small each way on 3 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $14.00). He is having his second run back for Adam Durrant after a Broome prep. Ran over 2100m here two weeks ago where he got a mile out of his ground and was never a factor but did make up headway late in the piece. With improvement off that, I think he can take this out.

5 Aragain (Bet Now: $5.50) is a hard mare to catch but I think she’s capable. Resumed in the race mentioned above, which was won by General Grant. Aragain trucked up out wide and looked the winner but condition just gave way. Better for the run and gets Brad Parnham, plus with upside, she appeals.

10 Devonia (Bet Now: $16.00) is a lightly raced staying mare that will roll on speed and give cheek. Ran over 2100m here last time out at the midweeks where she got control in front and that won her the race as she was able to fight back and win. Harder here, but with her racing style, she’ll give a sight.

I think it is all upside with 4 Startrade (Bet Now: $3.90). He resumed two weeks ago in the Jolly Beggar over 1000m, a trip clearly short of his best, but he appreciated a good speed and launched late to nail Comes A Time. Fitter, up to 1200m, it’s hard seeing anything other than a win.

2 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $3.10) is a such a genuine animal for Michael Grantham that will be around the mark. Both runs this time in have come over 1000m here, winning fresh before going to the Jolly Beggar where he looked the winner but was nabbed on the peg by Startrade. I do think he is more effective at 1000m but 1200m is fine and he gets the Blinkers back on.

5 Gemma’s Son (Bet Now: $10.00) is one that can fill a first four spot. He ran in the Jolly Beggar when wide throughout and battled on pretty well after doing the work behind Startrade. Tricky draw once again, but with luck from it, I think he’s going well enough to be a knockout threat.

9 Speed Dream (Bet Now: $7.50) resumes without a trial, but he’s a very genuine animal that resumes and I think can take this out. He hasn’t raced since June 4 at this track/distance when beaten narrowly by a Stakes class horse of the future, Otheroneson. Maps ideally from the gate and given how genuine he is, resuming without a public trial is fine.

3 Billy Ray (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Sebring gelding that is first up for Adam Durrant and I think can be quite dangerous. He ended last prep on a high, winning three on the bounce and confirming that he is Saturday class. Just one trial to get ready, but residual fitness and and good fresh record, he appeals.

2 Jericho Missile (Bet Now: $19.00) hasn’t won in a long time, but this is one of the easier races he has contested in some time. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Idyllic Prince when far from disgraced in defeat behind Resortman. Back a fair way in grade/depth, he’s definitely in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Henchard

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Startrade

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Blackwater Bay

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 7

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7, 10

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 9

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