Peter Moody will be looking for redemption in the Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield on Wednesday via Boogie Dancer after I Wish I Win failed in the Toorak on Saturday. His filly is the current favourite in what looks a solid edition of the race.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Thousand Guineas.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Thousand Guineas
2022 Thousand Guineas Speed Map
2022 Thousand Guineas Runner Preview
1. Russian Conquest: I am very skeptical of the Jim Moloney as a form reference for this. Yes, she was good from the back, but she did bludge doing no work and surged late. Gets a cheap run from the gate but I just don’t think she has the quality to beat these.
2. Revolutionary Miss: From a price angle, why is this girl $20+ and Russian Comquest single figures? Her run was every bit as good as the stablemate at Sandown I thought. The map is horrible for her but if out wide is the spot to be, I think she’ll run well and of that pair, I’d much rather back this girl.
3. She’s Licketysplit: She’s Licketysplit is a key threat. I do think she is the best of those with the Melbourne form. Lovely ride from Lane saw her win the Edward Manifold at Flemington where she had a suck run behind the speed, presented at the right time and she was too good. Heading in the right direction and commands respect.
4. Boogie Dancer: False favourite IMO. I think she’s genuine wet track only. Her most dynamic wins have come on bog tracks, and she won’t get that here. Nice filly and would be a moral if it was heavy, but on a firmer deck compared to the Prelude, she’s a clesr risk.
5. North Star Lass: North Star Lass will jump on the bunny and run very well I think. She ran in the Flight Stakes where she attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Zougotcha, but was game in defeat. Lands in front and I do think the #SF is clearly superior.
6. Waltz On By: She’s racing really well this time in. There to be beaten in the Jim Moloney but found under pressure to fend them off and win. Gets run of the race outside a likely slow tempo and is a must for multiples. Just not sure she’s good enough to win.
7. Madame Pommery: Was keep safe in betting in the Flight Stakes and she just struggled in the conditions. Two big ticks for her here are getting a firmer deck and J Mac jumps on, plus gets an ideal map. A win wouldn’t shock at all.
8. Moko: Moko should appreciate a wide gate for clear air. Given none fresh when a narrow second on the Synthetic at Pakenham. She then went to the Edward Manifold where she was back in the run and couldn’t really get a chance to build into the race. I think she’s going well and for wider multiples, I can entertain her.
9. Jenny Jerome: Handy filly for Patrick Payne that rocketed to the line late in the Jim Moloney behind Waltz On By, running a narrow second. Just feel she will get too far back and be giving quality fillies too much head start.
10. Tajneed: Was having start two when contesting the Edward Manifold and she ran a super race in defeat when third to She’s Licketysplit. She is the one with good upside…just whether this is too soon for her? But if I’m respecting the Kiwi, I have to respect her.
11. She’s Pretty Rich: Luckless in the Jim Moloney but she will have to work hard from a tricky gate and I just can’t see her threatening.
2022 Thousand Guineas $100 Betting Strategy:
North Star Lass is the map horse, getting a soft lead, and the firmer deck is a big tick. I’ll have $20 Win/$80 Place on her.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1350
Group l Strategy Return: $861.5
