5/11/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, The Big Dance day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Randwick on Tuesday, headlined by The Big Dance (1600m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.

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6 Waverley (Bet Now: $7.50) is the each way speck for me in the opener. John Sargent trained gelding that hasn’t been too bad in two runs this time in, the latest over the mile at Kembla Grange where he got back and was chasing from the outset but kept finding but was good in defeat. He has that solid mile run under the belt, up to 1800m and right down in the weights, he’ll do me each way.

1 Flying Bandit (Bet Now: $1.75) is heading in the right direction for Kerry Parker and rates highly. He was very good in defeat at this track/distance two back behind the very much in form State Of America before going to 2000m at Hawkesbury where he was far too classy for them. Good test here, but he’s the one to beat the way he’s racing. Just looks a bit on the short side.

3 Highborn Harry (Bet Now: $6.00) comes back to 1800m after winning over 2000m at Kembla last time on testing ground. He was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and get the job done. Stable is in form and overall, this isn’t a deep contest.

10 Announcing (Bet Now: $23.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in a very open Highway. She won over 1000m at Canberra last time, giving them a start and a beating in a very sharp performance. The run prior at Goulburn was plain but with the freshen up, she reacted, and with good speed in front, can see her doing no work and dashing late.

12 Tai Lung (Bet Now: $4.40) has run well at Highway level previously so I am not dismissing her. She ran at this track/distance in the Highway when ridden with intent and she tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind a good horse, Perennial. Maps to get a sweet trip and be effective late.

7 Take The Rap (Bet Now: $16.00) has earned a crack at Highway grade after two starts/wins this prep, both coming over 1000m at Wagga where each time he has been impressive in getting the job done. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and the Wagga form generally stands up in these races.

6 Hollywood Hero… (Bet Now: $3.80) he’s nearing D-Day surely? Market said he’d take a power of beating in the Coonamble Cup last time out but gee he was plain, getting back and was never really a factor behind Sharp Shock. Blinkers are back on, he comes back in trip and I think with a more positive ride, he can take this out.

2 King Of The Castle (Bet Now: $2.90) has class and that will carry him a long way. He resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago and kept finding the line in a pretty good return behind the in form Willaidow. He has to carry the weight but he has class and gets Nash aboard.

4 Secret Plan (Bet Now: $10.00) ran down the track behind Willaidow in the race mentioned above but he was quite good I thought given the race shape, getting back to near last in the run but worked home well enough in defeat. If he can settle closer and be within range, he’s dangerous at odds.

6 Tartaglia (Bet Now: $6.50) for me. James Cummings trained gelding that resumed over 1100m at Warwick Farm where the market said he was ready to go but he didn’t quite fire and was just fair in defeat behind Zoubaby. Tick over trial here was a very good piece of work and despite the gate, he presses forward and takes beating.

1 Blazing Harry (Bet Now: $3.50) is a horse I have always had time for and his two runs back have been good in Victoria, finishing third each time. Latest run was at Pakenham when struggling on heavy ground but he stayed on and was good in defeat. If he can overcome the gate, he’s in the mix as a key threat.

7 Colophon (Bet Now: $10.00) will put himself on speed and give cheek. He ran over the 1400m at Warwick Farm last time when attempting to lead throughout and giving a strong kick from the front but couldn’t quite see it through behind The Three Hundred. If he finds the front and gets control, he takes running down.

I think the straight bat play has to be 1 Here To Shock (Bet Now: $5.50). Alan Brown winner last time, finding plenty under Nash to lift when it counted and win. He has a good record at the mile and yes, has to lump the big weight, but he maps perfect and will be strong late.

8 Suparazi (Bet Now: $18.00) is flying for Ben Brisbourne and commands respect. He comes through the Crystal Mile at The Valley where he was back and wide but kept finding and was quite good in defeat behind Plenty Of Ammo. He gets good weight relief, he’ll be strong late and has that sense of timing.

17 Vivy Air (Bet Now: $31.00) is a mare I have always had time for so keen to see how she goes. She earned her spot in the field via the Wild Card here where she looked the winner once she dashed up the inside but just found one better in Ducasse. Maps to do no work and be effective at the end.

9 Melody Again (Bet Now: $13.00) only runs well I say. She wouldn’t have looked out of place in The Kosciuszko but couldn’t get a slot so she went to the Denman Cup at Muswellbrook and worked home with purpose behind Florino. Tick over trial last week at Scone was electric, she’ll love a fast run 1300m and launch late.

6 Gallant Star (Bet Now: $3.30) brings The Kosciuszko form, which generally stands up in races like this. He was very good in defeat there, getting a mile out of his ground but I really liked the way he finished his race off in defeat, beaten four lengths. If he can overcome the wide gate, he takes beating.

3 Elson Boy (Bet Now: $14.00) will land on the bunny and take running down. He did far too much work on speed in The Kosciuszko and rightfully dropped out to finish down the track behind Far Too Easy. Hard fit now, he’ll press forward and his best is more than good enough to give this a shake.

5 Estadio Mestalla (Bet Now: $3.60) is one of the better each way gambles across Cup Day…or Big Dance Day, depends who pays your salary. This guy ran over 1400m here last time out and his run in defeat was enormous, sitting wide throughout yet kept finding the line behind Willaidow. Like him up in trip, maps better and be strong late.

1 Waterford (Bet Now: $4.20) looks to be in for a really good prep for Chris Waller. Market kept him safe when resuming a few weeks ago in the Alan Brown and he found the line with purpose from off the speed when third to impressive winner Here To Shock. Fitter and up in trip, natural improvement, he takes beating.

7 Eaglemont (Bet Now: $35.00) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. He ran over the mile at Doomben last time when far from disgraced in defeat I thought behind impressive winner Junipal, who has found form in Brisbane after being okay in Sydney. He’ll do no work and should be strong at the end.

7 Caballus (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a massive price here. They have tried him out to be a top sprinter but the body of work this prep says no, he’s not top class. He contested the Moir and Manikato, not good enough, and was much the same in the Sydney Stakes. Back to this level, with luck from the gate, he’ll take a power of beating.

5 Pereille (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to have returned enormous for James Cummings based on his trial work. He ended last prep with a run in the Ramornie where he was ridden like it was a barrier trial, very cute under Zac Lloyd. Two trials under the belt, he’ll get back and launch late.

3 Astero (Bet Now: $31.00) is one at odds I can entertain. He hasn’t really had much clear air to work with in both runs this time in, the latest in the Sydney Stakes where he was clearly outclassed on paper but he didn’t really have a clear path in the straight. Maps to do no work…doubt he wins but a first four threat.

5 Bojangles (Bet Now: $4.50) looks to be humming for Kim Waugh and confident he can resume with a win. He hasn’t raced since July 13 here when looming to win but couldn’t quite see it through when a closing third to War Eternal. Trial work to get ready has been electric, maps perfect and will be strong late.

4 South Of India (Bet Now: $2.70) probably lacks the class of some of these, but he is the 1000m specialist. He resumes, having not raced since July 13 when a sharp winner at this track/distance. Spelled, potentially with eyes towards The Warra at Kembla, and his trial work indicates he’s ready to go.

6 Noble Soldier (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Team Price trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since August 17 at Rosehill when a bit on the plain side behind Roma Avenue after getting back in the run. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and has trialled nicely. Watch the market.

8 Gently Rolled (Bet Now: $3.90) should appreciate a rise to 1200m for Bryce Heys. This mare resumed a few weeks ago over 1100m at Rosehill where she got back in what was an on pace/rail dominated affair and while she was never threatening, she kept finding the line in a good return. Fitter and up in trip, she bounces back.

11 Negotiations (Bet Now: $6.00) has been strong in two runs this time in and looks ready to win. He ran over 1100m at Warwick Farm last time out and worked home with purpose from off the speed behind impressive winner, the in form Fire Star. Hard fit and up to 1200m, he appeals.

9 Huon (Bet Now: $6.00) has returned in outstanding order for Richard Litt. He resumed with a strong win on the Kenso before going to Rosehill a few weeks back where he was near last in an on pace/rail dominated affair but was good late behind Pharari. If he can settle closer in the run, he takes running down.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Melody Again

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 5 Bojangles

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Estadio Mestalla

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 4, 5

Leg Four: 3, 6, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful.

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