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Melbourne Cup 2022 – Field, Odds, Horses, Tips and Form

The Final Field for the 2022 Melbourne Cup has been released and we have 24 quality stayers set to line-up in this years edition of the race that stops a nation.

We take a look at each of the 24 horses in the Melbourne Cup Field and we provide Video Form for each of them including the International horses in the field.

The best way to find the Melbourne Cup winner is to watch each of the horses lead-up runs heading into the race and luckily for you we have done all the hard work to find these races and list them below.

Market 💰: View the Odds for the Melbourne Cup

1. Gold Trip

Breeding: Outstrip x Sarvana
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Barrier: 14
Weight: 57.5kg
Career Stats: 15: 1-4-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2200m/2200m
Career Best Win: Prix Greffulhe, June 6 2020, Lyon-Parilly, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 0-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 13: 1-4-3
Short Summary: He’s only won the one race. Yes, he has class…but just can’t quite crack it for a win and think that will continue here.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

I think you can make a case to say that he should have won this. He was given a 12/10 by Zahra and was hailed as the winner, only to be bloused late by Durston. I reckon Gold Trip got lost in front and didn’t see Durston. I think had he seen Durston, the result could haev been different.

 

Final Summary: He was somewhat unlucky in the Cox Plate. I say somewhat because yes, he was held up, but he wasn’t exactly finding the line and going past good horse flesh. He was running past just fair horses. First horse in a long time to contest all three major races in one Spring, so credit to all concerned for that feat. The key to him is the weather. The forecast is for rain on Sunday and Monday, which would seriously help his cause. Top 10 chance minimum, Top 5 for sure if the rain does indeed come.

 

2. Duais

Breeding: Shamus Award x Meerlust
Trainer: Ed Cummings
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Barrier: 10
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 23: 7-4-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1300m/2400m
Career Best Win: Australian Cup, March 12 2022, Flemington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 4-3-0
Wet Track Stats: 13: 3-1-0
Short Summary: She has been set for one race and the lead up runs indicate she’s right on track to produce a peak run for the campaign.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

I thought this was a lovely pipe opener for the Melbourne Cup. Got back to near last in a slowly run race and was finding the line well enough for a mare that has been set for 3200m. Josh Parr said post race “She’s screaming out for the 3200m metres. She pulled up really well”. Parr is replaced by Hugh Bowman, regarded as one of the best in Australia in terms of riding in staying races.

 

Final Summary: Plenty of people have dropped off her, thinking she hasn’t come up this time in. I think she is right on track. The Autumn, it was a case of being not sure what they had, but she then was luckless in the Chipping Norton, confirming the promise with an Australian Cup/Tancred double. This prep, her sole focus has been the Melbourne Cup. If the track is Soft 5/6 come jump time, I think she’s #1 seed for the locals.

3. Knights Order

Breeding: So You Think x Lamanka Lass
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott
Jockey: Tim Clark
Barrier: 24
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 30: 9-1-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/3200m
Career Best Win: Sydney Cup, April 9 2022, Randwick, Heavy Surface
Dry Track Stats: 17: 4-0-2
Wet Track Stats: 13: 5-1-3
Short Summary: Ridden too cute in the Caulfield Cup, I am expecting a much more positive and aggressive on speed steer. If that eventuates, he’ll look the winner.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

To me, the ride confirmed their focus is the Melbourne Cup. Tim Clark went too slow on the horse, trying to stack them right up for too long and was just outsprinted, but loved the way he kept finding the line to kick on for third. Ripping Melbourne Cup trial I feel.

 

Final Summary: He’s really turned his form around this year. He looked absolutely cast this time last year, beaten 26 lengths in the Cup last year. My rule with the Melbourne Cup is if you fail in the race once, you can’t come back and win it subsequent. He’s got the right racing style, he’ll give a great sight…but that rule I have has worked for me over the years so I’ll stick to it and let him go through to the keeper.

4. Montefilia

Breeding: Kermadec x Bana Wu
Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Jason Collett
Barrier: 11
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 22: 6-1-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/2400m
Career Best Win: The Metropolitan, October 2 2021, Randwick, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 3-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 16: 3-1-4
Short Summary: Similar to Duais, has been solely focused on the Melbourne Cup and she was one of the better runs in the key lead up.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

Her run was enormous. She wanted to make her run with Gold Trip but just got badly held up at a vital stage when trying to do that. She eventually got clear and loved the way she attacked the line to run fourth. Steady tempo worked against her, but she was excellent from a Melbourne Cup perspective.

 

Final Summary: Jury was out after the Hill Stakes, but that run can be excused given it was a fast run race and she resumed in essentially a barrier trial prior. David Payne is a very good trainer of stayers and really, his stable has been firing in recent weeks/months. Been set for the race and a drop of rain would certainly enhance her claims. She’s right in the mix and can certainly win this.

5. Numerian

Breeding: Holy Roman Emperor x Delicate Charm
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Barrier: 7
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 30: 5-8-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2200m
Career Best Win: Q22, June 11 2022, Eagle Farm, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 18: 3-4-3
Wet Track Stats: 12: 2-4-1
Short Summary: He’s going really well. But the Caulfield Cup run tells me that he is going to struggle to see out a truly run two miles.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

He was given a lovely ride by Tommy Berry. Sat outside Knights Order throughout and looked a potential winner for a few strides but the query leading into the race was the end of 2400m and that proved correct as he just got the stitch and finished fifth.

 

Final Summary: His only hope of figuring in the finish is riding him cold. I don’t think they can ride him positive and expect him to be strong at the end. He’s a good horse that is getting better with time. But I think 3200m is a bridge too far and I can’t see him being a serious threat.

6. Without A Fight

Breeding: Teofilo x Khor Sheed
Trainer: Team Crisford
Jockey: William Buick
Barrier: 18
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 17: 7-3-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/2800m
Career Best Win: Silver Cup, July 9 2022, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 5-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 5: 2-0-2
Short Summary: Progressive stayer heading in the right direction.

Key Overseas Replay: Silver Cup (2800m), July 9 2022, York, Good Surface

Only took on two rivals but it was a commanding performance and continued a really strong 9-10 month patch of form for him. Took control 400m out and safely held them at bay to win with something in hand. The two rivals were nothing flash, but the win was impressive and arrogant.

 

Final Summary: He’s heading in the right direction. He dodged the Ebor and instead ran at Newmarket when a solid second at Listed level. He’s been very well placed throughout his career. The Melbourne Cup is light on quality compared to recent years, but he will need to improve significantly IMO.

7. Camorra

Breeding: Zoffany x Mauralakana
Trainer: Team Hayes
Jockey: Ben Melham
Barrier: 17
Weight: 55kg
Career Stats: 17: 4-2-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1628m/2816m
Career Best Win: Curragh Cup, June 24 2022, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 2-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 11: 2-1-2
Short Summary: Has very good form lines to command respect.

Key Overseas Replay: Vintage Crop Stakes (2816m), April 23 2022, Navan, Good Surface

He has had a couple of runs since, but this run was one I thought I’d highlight. It’s been a good reference for Melbourne Cup raiders in the past and Kyprios is the best stayer in the world. Camorra is in the blue colours and he clearly should have run third, getting badly held up at a vital stage. Very good run in a race which has turned out to be a red hot form reference.

 

Final Summary: $61+ was available for him a few months ago and I found that staggering given the form around him. Not many can say they were good in defeat behind Kyprios, and as seen in the replay, clearly should have run third. He’s a dead set dry tracker, so hopefully gets a firm deck for Cup Day and does have a solid Timeform rating. I think he’s one to be respected, provided the track is dry, because we saw in the Irish St Leger that wet ground at the top level is no good for him.

8. Deauville Legend

Breeding: Sea The Stars x Soho Rose
Trainer: James Ferguson
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier: 9
Weight: 55kg
Career Stats: 7: 3-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/2615m
Career Best Win: Great Voltigeur Stakes, August 17 2022, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 3-3-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Short Summary: Lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3YO with raw ability.

Key Overseas Replay: Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m), August 17 2022, York, Good Surface

This run and dominant win confirmed himself as favourite for the Melbourne Cup. He was outstanding, especially the final 400m, putting away El Bodegon and Secret State, a couple of high quality animals. Secret State was perhaps off his game, but even allowing for that, there was quality about the win from this guy. Whilst El Bodegon has since placed in the Cox Plate, the form as a whole sticks. Six races since from the beaten brigade for just two placings.

 

Final Summary: I am stunned he is Melbourne Cup favourite. Yes, he has the right profile of being the Northern Hemisphere 3YO, but we are awake to it now and not just giving them 51kg/thereabouts. He’s got 55kg, so he’s weighted on the assumption he’ll be too good. He might well be too good, but given he is $4.50 in early betting, he is way too short for a horse that you can find holes in.

9. Stockman

Breeding: Tavistock x Crimson
Trainer: Joe Pride
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Barrier: 2
Weight: 54kg
Career Stats: 36: 8-7-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1300m/2600m
Career Best Win: St Leger, October 15 2022, Randwick, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 1-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 23: 7-5-2
Short Summary: If he gets a rain affected track, he’s a top ten chance. Firm track, he’ll struggle.

Key Replay: Tancred Stakes (2400m), March 28 2022, Newcastle, Soft Surface

I thought this was a good replay to show because this sees Stockman clashing with Duais. Duais gave him a start and a beating in a dominant win, but Stockman stuck to the task pretty well to finish second. Margin was 3.4L and there is a 4kg weight pull for Stockman, so if you’re a weights/measures person, you can make a case that Stockman can turn the tables.

Final Summary: He’s been a ripper for Joe Pride for a few seasons and deserves his spot in the Cup Field given how consistent he has been at 2000m+ this year. He beat up nothing in the St Leger last time but that secured his spot. 3200m should be fine, and if he gets a drop of rain, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he ran top ten. Can he win? I’d be surprised.

10. Vow And Declare

Breeding: Declaration Of War x Geblitzt
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Barrier: 4
Weight: 54kg
Career Stats: 27: 4-3-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1800m/3200m
Career Best Win: Melbourne Cup, November 5 2019, Flemington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 18: 2-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 12: 2-0-2
Short Summary: He’s flying…can he win another Melbourne Cup? On current form, it wouldn’t be a total shock.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

Given the work he did, he was one of the runs of the race I thought. Three and four wide no cover for the trip yet still had the hide to keep chipping away and was only beaten 1.9L in a super effort.

 

Final Summary: I saw a video from Ladbrokes on a social media page where they did a special piece on Vow And Declare. Danny O’Brien said prior to the first up run that the horse has come back in super order. The first up run was solid but I still thought he was mad because the horse had done nothing since the 2019 Melbourne Cup. But really, he has come back in super order. If the rain doesn’t hit too hard, he has to be respected.

11. Young Werther

Breeding: Tavistock x Romantic Time
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damian Lane
Barrier: 21
Weight: 54kg
Career Stats: 14: 1-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1500m/1500m
Career Best Win: Maiden, September 6 2020, Geelong, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 9: 1-2-3
Wet Track Stats: 5: 0-2-0
Short Summary: Seriously, what is he doing lining up here?

Key Replay: Turnbull Stakes (2000m), October 1 2022, Flemington, Good Surface

This has been his best effort this prep. Visually, he was very good, but when you break down the sectionals, he had every chance and rightfully finished as close as he did in what essentially became a 600m dash. The knock is that the Turnbull hasn’t stood up at all, with no future winners coming from it.

 

Final Summary: It’s Benaud 2.0 from the Caulfield Cup. He was touted as a contender, but his lone victory came in a Nowra maiden. Young Werther has been long touted as a good horse, but his lone victory has come in a Geelong maiden on debut back over two years ago. He’s not up to this level and should be a near rank outsider.

12. Hoo Ya Mal

Breeding: Territories x Sensationally
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott
Jockey: Craig Williams
Barrier: 15
Weight: 53.5kg
Career Stats: 9: 2-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2816m
Career Best Win: March Stakes, August 27 2022, Goodwood, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 1-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-0-1
Short Summary: English Derby runner up that might be Fiorente 2.0. Run well in the race this year, come back and win it next year. But, given the lack of overall depth, why can’t he win it this year?

Key Overseas Replay: Gordon Stakes (2412m), July 28 2022, Goodwood, Good Surface

Thought this was a replay worth showing. On the line, Deauville Legend ran second and got him late, but it’s worth noting that Ryan Moore, who rode Hoo Ya Mal, lost his whip around 500m out, so no doubt in my mind that cost the horse second behind a star in New London. Form out of this race has been red hot with New London running second in the St Leger, Deauville Legend bolting up at York along with three other blackype winners.

 

Final Summary: Several months ago, I thought he was zero chance and just assumed the runner up finish in the Derby was a fluke given he was $151. But I think he’s going into this race as one of the leading contenders. That Gordon Stakes form line has been red hot, he won soon after and just couldn’t go with them in a pretty strong St Leger. He might be 6-12 months away, but I can’t let him go without having something on.

13. Serpentine

Breeding: Galileo x Remember When
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: John Allen
Barrier: 23
Weight: 53.5kg
Career Stats: 14: 2-1-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/2420m
Career Best Win: Epsom Derby, July 4 2020, Epsom Downs, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 2-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 8: 0-1-0
Short Summary: Ran well in a race which should be respected for the Cup…but I can’t entertain him as a legitimate threat.

Key Replay: Archer Stakes (2500m), October 29 2022, Flemington, Heavy Surface

He has raced best when leading and he got control here under John Allen. Gave a strong kick when asked and gave Surefire a fright, but was held late. Surefire is a solid horse, but I don’t think he’s anything special, and there wasn’t much in behind him, so it wasn’t a strong edition.

Final Summary: Lloyd Williams and his runners have been cast this Spring. Serpentine has been the first horse to show any sign of form for the camp. So from a timing sense, he’s on track to run well. But on overall form, I’d be stunned if he was able to lead throughout and win.

14. Daqiansweet Junior

Breeding: Sweet Orange x Paulette
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Barrier: 13
Weight: 53kg
Career Stats: 21: 7-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/3200m
Career Best Win: Adelaide Cup, March 14 2022, Morphettville, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 7-1-0
Wet Track Stats: 9: 0-0-2
Short Summary: He’s one of several just making up the numbers. Won’t be winning

Key Replay: Bart Cummings (2510m), October 1 2022, Flemington, Good Surface

This is a tricky race to sort out with confidence. This guy was wide no cover for the trip yet was only beaten 2.4L. Lunar Flare was given a 12/10 ride and won, Francesgo Guadi nearly fell and should have won, luckless runs in behind…just a mess. Daqiansweet Junior wasn’t beaten far and the gentle tempo helped him finish as close as he did.

Final Summary: Looked a really promising stayer in the Autumn, highlighted by the Adelaide Cup triumph and a third in the Sydney Cup. But he just hasn’t come up this time in and IMO isn’t going to trouble this lot.

15. Grand Promenade

Breeding: Champs Elysees x Zacchera
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Barrier: 1
Weight: 53kg
Career Stats: 24: 8-4-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1700m/2600m
Career Best Win: Bart Cummings, October 2 2021, Flemington, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 16: 6-2-2
Wet Track Stats: 8: 2-2-0
Short Summary: Not going well enough to trouble these.

Key Replay: Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m), October 22 2022, Moonee Valley, Heavy Surface

This was a fast run race. He had every chance in behind that speed to finish off but once he was headed by those in behind, he spat the dummy out and was very ordinary late. Ran fourth, beaten 12 lengths says it all really.

 

Final Summary: 12 months ago, he was regarded as one of the main chances for the Melbourne Cup. This time in though, he has teased to do something positive. He had every chance at The Valley and was pretty ordinary given the run he got in transit. He’s not a threat.

16. Arapaho

Breeding: Lope De Vega x Alzubra
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Barrier: 19
Weight: 52.5kg
Career Stats: 26: 6-5-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1300m/2350m
Career Best Win: Premiers Cup, August 20 2022, Randwick, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 0-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 20: 6-4-2
Short Summary: Fitness certainly won’t be an issue. Drop of rain helps and he does boast a win over Francesco Guardi, a horse that likely would have been closer to the top of the market than the bottom for the Melbourne Cup if he was running.

Key Replay: St Leger (2600m), October 15 2022, Randwick, Soft Surface

Market wanted him at a price. He was given a lovely ride by King and loomed like he would threaten to beat Stockman but just couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for a game second, with a gap to third.

Final Summary: He’s an interesting one. Been up forever it seems like but is holding his form well. How do you read his form though. As stated earlier, he has a win over Francesco Guardi, but last start beat home Sacramento, who was lapped by Francesco Guardi in the Moonee Valley Cup. The key though is the track. He needs rain, and a decent amount. Worse side of Soft6, into Soft7, top ten chance. Firmer track, he’ll struggle.

17. Emissary

Breeding: Kingman x Soviet Moon
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Barrier: 3
Weight: 51.5kg
Career Stats: 15: 4-2-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1700m/2400m
Career Best Win: Geelong Cup, October 19 2022, Geelong, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 11: 3-2-3
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Short Summary: Had everything fall into place to win the Geelong Cup. That was his Birthday/Christmas/Easter all in one.

Key Replay: Geelong Cup (2400m), October 19 2022, Geelong, Good Surface

Blake Shinn is the form rider in Melbourne at the moment and it’s easy to see why after this steer. Sat back, but just got into the right spot, following the right horses, found clear air at the right time and let down with purpose to overhaul Surefire, who I think is an okay horse, but nothing special.

 

Final Summary: The Geelong Cup has been a great form reference for the Melbourne Cup over the years, but I don’t think the 2022 Melbourne Cup will be a year where it comes to the fore. Lucky to finish first half of the field.

18. Lunar Flare

19. Smokin’ Romans

Breeding: Ghibellines x Inferno
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Barrier: 16
Weight: 51.5kg
Career Stats: 24: 9-6-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1500m/2500m
Career Best Win: Turnbull Stakes, October 1 2022, Flemington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 6-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 11: 3-4-0
Short Summary: Somewhat unlucky in the Caulfield Cup, but I just don’t think he’s quite up to these.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

I think if Jamie Kah had her time again, she would be more positive on this horse. She quickly opted for cover and a sit rather than sit on speed on a hard fit horse right down in the weights. It ended up being an ugly watch if you were on. Whether he was going to win is another discussion. But he was somewhat unlucky.

 

Final Summary: I think you can poke holes in his form. He beat off, IMO, somewhat of a pretender in Gold Trip in the Naturalism. He then was blessed deluxe in the Turnbull. Unlucky in the Caulfield Cup, but it’s not as if he was savaging the line. Expecting Jamie Kah to be more positive. Top ten chance at best. He won’t be a winning bet for me.

20. Tralee Rose

Breeding: Tavistock x Star Of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Barrier: 22
Weight: 51.5kg
Career Stats: 19: 6-4-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1700m/2800m
Career Best Win: Geelong Cup, October 20 2021, Geelong, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 11: 4-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 8: 2-3-0
Short Summary: He’l be known as Symon Cummings if this mare wins this race. Surely not.

Key Replay: Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 15 2022, Caulfield, Soft Surface

Such a weird set up for this mare, but all things being equal, her run was pretty good. Got badly checked by Durston at a vital stage. Should have finished closer without troubling the winner. But really, the run was full of merit.

 

Final Summary: If she was trained by Maher/Eusatce, you’d almost be keen to have something on her. But Symon Wilde isn’t a fashionable trainer when it comes to set ups like this. But she is the one with the most upside and likes Flemington. I’d say she’s a top ten chance, but couldn’t back her to win.

21. Point Nepean

22. High Emocean

Breeding: Ocean Park x High Joy
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Jockey: Teo Nugent
Barrier: 8
Weight: 50kg
Career Stats: 22: 7-5-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2500m
Career Best Win: Bendigo Cup, October 28 2022, Bendigo, Heavy Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 2-4-0
Wet Track Stats: 12: 5-1-3
Short Summary: Scraped in to win a weak Bendigo Cup…but, she has the Maher/Eustace polish and is a tick for the track, ground and timing.

Key Replay: Bendigo Cup (2400m), October 28 2022, Bendigo, Heavy Surface

The race was thinned out after scratchings and she did look a good thing. Did she win like a good thing? No, but she toughed it out best in a slog and was strongest late, which is a good sign for a horse heading towards 3200m come Tuesday, so while it wasn’t a strong race, the win had merit.

Final Summary: Overall form…you’d have to say no, but that can be said about plenty of these, and she is a last start winner, a tough winner. She handles wet ground, she’s down in the weights, she’s in form, she’s in the best 24000m+ camp in Australia…top ten prospect.

23. Interpretation

Breeding: Galileo x Daldiyna
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Barrier: 6
Weight: 50kg
Career Stats: 10: 3-0-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/2816m
Career Best Win: Vinnie Roe, August 12 2021, Leopardstown, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 4: 2-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 1-0-0
Short Summary: The wraps on him have been big. Fallen into the Cup field, he won’t be a winner for me.

Key Replay: Geelong Cup (2400m), October 19 2022, Geelong, Good Surface

Granted he didn’t get the best of rides, but even allowing for that, he was still pretty plain and was entitled to finish off his race better I felt. Surefire franked the form by winning the Archer, but it was a pretty weak Archer, so the jury is out on how strong this form is.

Final Summary: He’s been the spruik horse from connections for the Cup for several months. As a whole, he has been a major disappointment after presenting to be a good horse. Blinkers back on, right down in the weights, he’s a stayer…it’s hard to pen a horse from this stable at this sort of trip, but I am.

24. Realm Of Flowers

Breeding: So You Think x Astral Flower
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Jockey: Damien Thornton
Barrier: 5
Weight: 50kg
Career Stats: 23: 5-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/2800m
Career Best Win: Andrew Ramsden, May 15 2021, Flemington, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 1-1-0
Wet Track Stats: 16: 4-3-3
Short Summary: You’d struggle to find a more out of form leading stable, but this mare will get conditions to suit in order to run a positive race.

Key Replay: The Metropolitan (2400m), October 1 2022, Randwick, Heavy Surface

Can easily make a case to say she should have won. Was caught wide no cover for the trip, and yes, off the fence was fine for the meeting, but still, three wide for the trip at 2400m, and only beaten a lip, her run was enormous, and the form was ticked in the Caulfield Cup via Durston.

Final Summary: She needs wet ground, and it looks like she will get it come Tuesday. The form out of The Metropolitan was confirmed via Durston and she beat that horse home despite doing all the work. I don’t think she’s good enough to win, but if there is a top ten market, I’d be backing her with confidence because some of these will be hopeless on the ground, whereas she won’t be.

 

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