The 2024 Spring Carnival is here and with that, the international contingent is there again to try and take the big three, along with key races in Sydney.
Here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners nominated across the big races and are here down under.
Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the current odds for the Melbourne Cup
Caulfield Cup 🏆: View the current odds for the Caulfield Cup
Cox Plate 🏆: View the current odds for the Cox Plate
Absurde
Breeding: Fastnet Rock x Incroyable
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Career Stats: 21: 6-6-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/4023m
Career Best Win: Ebor Handicap, August 26 2023, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 14: 4-6-2
Wet Track Stats: 7: 2-0-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: For mine, the jury is well and truly out on him and keen to risk.
Key Replay: 2023 Melbourne Cup, November 7 2023, Flemington, Good Surface
This is the reason why I am keen to risk him. Was given every chance I thought, presented to win and just simply wasn’t good enough in what was a truly run two miles, with rider Zac Purton saying as much post race.
Final Summary: He has since returned home and I think you have to say his form has been mixed. Yes, a jumps win at Cheltenham and a Chester Stakes triumph, but the two wins, especially the latter, the jury is well and truly out. He was kissed on the backside with the ride and then the run in transit he got. Plus, the subsequent form out of that Chester win has been dreadful. Very keen to oppose him on the first Tuesday in November.
Ascoli Piceno
Breeding: Daiwa Major x Ascolti
Trainer: Yoichi Kuroiwa
Career Stats: 6: 4-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/1600m
Career Best Win: Hasnhin Juvenile Fillies, December 10 2023, Hanshin, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 4-2-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: She’s a star and could blow them away in the Golden Eagle.
Key Replay: Keisei Hai, September 8 2024, Nakayama, Firm Surface
The form guide will say the track was good, but considering the 1600m was run in 1.30.8, the track was concrete, commonly known as firm. The win was arrogant and the change up speed when clicked up by Lemaire…it was breathtaking.
— Team Iwata (@JayRAye02) September 8, 2024
Final Summary: She looks stunning. Just simply stunning. She could easily be an odds on chance if she brings her form from Japan because it is dynamic for her age group and we saw what Obamburumai did last year in a very strong Golden Eagle. She’s #1 seed for me, and clearly.
Birdman
Breeding: Free Eagle x Carol
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 4: 2-0-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2414m/2615m
Career Best Win: Yeats Stakes, May 18 2024, Navan, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 0-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 2: 2-0-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Nice stayer, but I reckon he might be Soulcombe 2.0 and will go to the Queens Cup.
Key Replay: Queen’s Vase, June 19 2024, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
I think this is a key replay should he head to the Melbourne Cup because the winner of the race, Illinois, I would have clearly had as favourite for the first Tuesday in November if he came this way. He kept finding and was strong to the line in defeat in third in what has been a good form race.
Final Summary: Chris Waller has openly stated he is going to let the horse tell him if he’s ready for the Melbourne Cup or whether he goes to the Queens Cup. Either way, I think he’s going to be very good in 2025 and could well be Soulcombe 2.0. I’d be having a peanut on him at $81+ because if he does run, I think he’s a $26-$31 chance.
Corazon Beat
Breeding: Suave Richard x Le Ciel D’Or
Trainer: Shizuya Kato
Career Stats: 8: 3-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/1600m
Career Best Win: Keio Hai Nisai, November 4 2024, Tokyo, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 3-1-2
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Japanese horse that creates interest but is second tier behind Ascoli Piceno.
Key Replay: Keisei Hai Autu, September 8 2024, Nakayama, Good Surface
I am going to be very forgiving of this run from her here. She was wide throughout and as she was building into the race, she got badly checked and then the rider eased her down, so just forgive and forget the run. On paper, doesn’t read great, but she had genuine excuses.
— Team Iwata (@JayRAye02) September 8, 2024
Final Summary: She is the other Japanese raider for the Golden Eagle. They clashed at Nakayama with Ascolini Piceno winning whereas this girl ran second last, but watching the replay, she got checked at various stages in the straight and the rider eased her down the last 200m or so. Needs to improve several lengths to turn the tables, but always respect the Japanese.
Docklands
Breeding: Massat x Icky Woo
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Career Stats: 11: 3-5-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1609m
Career Best Win: Britannia Stakes, June 22 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 2-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 6: 1-3-1
Target Race/s: Cox Plate
Short Summary: Very good miler but at 2040m, I am thinking he is going to struggle.
Key Replay: Juddmonte International, August 21 2024, York, Good Surface
Thought this was a good replay to show because it was his first look at ten furlongs and for mine, he just didn’t measure up at all. City Of Troy is world class, make no mistake, but you would have liked to have seen more from Docklands the final 400m.
Final Summary: He was talked up as a potential Golden Eagle horse once but connections kept him in the UK to build his profile, his rating and he’s here for the Cox Plate. He ran second in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot but was safely held by a world class horse in City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International at York. He does bring elite form. But you have to query him at 2040m given he does seem effective at the mile.
Jan Brueghel
Breeding: Galileo x Devoted To You
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Career Stats: 4: 4-0-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2011m/2916m
Career Best Win: English St Leger, September 14 2024, Doncaster, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 3: 3-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 1: 1-0-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: The best chance Aidan O’Brien has had to win the Melbourne Cup in years.
Key Replay: English St Leger, September 14 2024, Doncaster, Good Surface
I wanted to show the replay of this race because I do think it’s the strongest form reference leading into the first Tuesday in November. I say that because firstly, how strong Jan Brueghel was to and through the line in winning one of the toughest races for 3YO’s. Secondly, the runner up Illinois is a horse I would have had as clear favourite for the Melbourne Cup if he came across.
Final Summary: The Melbourne Cup favourite and for mine, deservedly so given he brings the A1 form from the UK, winning the St Leger when beating Illinois, who I would have had as favourite if he made the trip across. The rise to two miles is fine, he’s well in at the weights and the stable has done everything in racing except the first Tuesday in November. This looks a great chance to win the one race that has eluded him.
Kinesiology
Breeding: Study Of Man x Kinaesthesia
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 7: 1-5-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2011m/2011m
Career Best Win: Maiden, May 10 2024, Cork, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 1-5-0
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-0-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Promising animal on the rise but does look a horse who is still 6-12 months away.
Key Replay: Vinnie Row Stakes, August 22 2024, Leopardstown, Good Surface
This guy should have won the race but he threw it away by wanting to duck in badly under pressure and lost the race in the Stewards Room. He did show nice change up speed when asked but ducking in cost him badly.
Final Summary: I think he has talent. Whether he’s ready for a Melbourne Cup remains to be seen. From what I can see in his form and with the quotes from Waller and connections, he will be a long term project. But, if he does run in the Spring, I say give him serious respect because I do think he is above average.
Kitty Rose
Breeding: Invincible Army x Varnish
Trainer: Mick Price/Michael Kent Jr
Career Stats: 7: 2-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1508m
Career Best Win: Ingabelle Stakes, September 9 2023, Leopardstown, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 3: 2-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 4: 0-3-0
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Handy mare but she looks as if she’s going to struggle in the Golden Eagle.
Key Replay: Sir Henry Cecil Stakes, July 11 2024, Newmarket, Soft Surface
The majority of the field have clashed again since, but for mine, they looked an absolute bunch of camels. Kitty Rose looked gone 400m out but plugged on to run second, with the rest of them looking very one paced the last little bit behind the winner.
Final Summary: Price/Kent trained mare that will come to Australia and likely be set for the Golden Eagle at Rosehill. She does boast a second to Content from last year, with that filly coming out recently and winning a Group at York during the Ebor Festival, so in that regard, the form reads very strong. But overall, her form does suggest she will need to improve big time to measure up.
Lake Forest
Breeding: No Nay Never x Lady Aquitaine
Trainer: William Haggas
Career Stats: 7: 2-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1207m/1207m
Career Best Win: Gimcrack Stakes, August 25 2023, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 2-3-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Good horse, but he’s not a 1500m horse.
Key Replay: Commonwealth Cup, June 21 2024, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
This race has grown in stature in recent years. Lake Forest was the eye catcher. He was a bit one paced when initially asked but he found clear air and his last 150m or so was very good, closing off to finish second.
Final Summary: William Haggas rarely gets it wrong when he brings a runner to Sydney. This guy has been excellent in 2024, noted by a close up second in the Commonwealth Cup, a sharp race at Royal Ascot. But, I will say that 1500m first up is going to be a query and with that in mind, I think he could be a risk.
Lazzat
Breeding: Territories x Lastochka
Trainer: Jerome Reynier
Career Stats: 6: 6-0-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1300m/1500m
Career Best Win: Prix Maurice de Gheest, August 4 2024, Deauville, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 1: 1-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 5: 5-0-0
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Star from France that has Group l winning form against older horses. The clear danger to Ascoli Piceno.
Key Replay: Prix Maurice de Gheest, August 4 2024, Deauville, Soft Surface
This was such a sharp victory. Near the speed and was trucking before being clicked up by Orani and she just went through her gears like a top class mare, winning and winning quite well, proving very strong in the run to the line.
Final Summary: Star galloper from France that is unbeaten. The last start Group l win at Deauville was dominant and ran sizzling time in doing so. She handles all conditions, she’s already a winner at 1500m, and beware the unbeaten horse. Ascoli Piceno is dominant but outside him, this girl is clearly next best re Golden Eagle.
Onesmoothoperator
Breeding: Dialed In x Sueno D’Oro
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Career Stats: 36: 4-11-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2050m/3319m
Career Best Win: Northumberland Plate, June 29 2024, Newcastle, Synthetic Surface
Dry Track Stats: 33: 4-10-5
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-1-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: If the Melbourne Cup was on Synthetic, a winning chance. But realistically, an outside top ten prospect.
Key Replay: Ebor Handicap, August 24 2024, York, Good Surface
This is the Melbourne Cup in the UK. I thought he stayed on really well in defeat behind Magical Zoe, but I will say that this race has gotten worse re depth/quality over the years so I am not sure how strong this race is with the first Tuesday in November in mind.
Final Summary: UK stayer trained by Brian Ellison who will arrive down under in good form, with two wins on the bounce at Newcastle (UK) on the Synthetic, the latest being the Northumberland Plate, which is the UK’s Synthetic version of the Melbourne Cup. Not a deep race but he was impressive and he will stay all day. Also keep in mind that in 2022 in the UK he was beaten four lengths by Without A Fight, the 2023 Cup winner.
Prognosis
Breeding: Deep Impact x Velda
Trainer: Mitsumasa Nakauchida
Career Stats: 15: 7-3-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2000m
Career Best Win: Sapporo Kinen, August 20 2023, Sapporo, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 14: 7-2-2
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race/s: Cox Plate
Short Summary: Favourite for the Cox Plate, and I say deservedly so. The one to beat.
Key Replay: QEll Cup, April 28 2024, Sha Tin, Soft Surface
I think you can make a case that switch the runs between he and Romantic Warrior, and you clearly switch the result. The run of Prognosis was incredible, wide for a fair chunk of the race after being tardy away and it took a champion to get past him.
Final Summary: World class horse from Japan and that formula is usually gold for races in Australia. He doesn’t have the glowing CV but he does have elite form from Japan and Hong Kong, notably his epic battles with Romantic Warrior, who won the 2023 Cox Plate. He does tend to miss the start but if he’s within range on the turn, he has a devastating finale and could easily blow them away.
Sayedaty Sadaty
Breeding: Anodin x Bell Su River
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Career Stats: 9: 1-3-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/1609m
Career Best Win: Maiden, August 30 2023, Kempton Park, Synthetic Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 1-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-0-0
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Favourite for the Cox Plate, and I say deservedly so. The one to beat.
Key Replay: Epsom Derby, June 1 2024, Epsom Downs, Soft Surface
He is the horse with white and green silks, making ground nearer the inside. Comfortably held, but did make up headway behind City Of Troy, who is one of the best gallopers in the world in a race where the subsequent form has been quite strong.
Final Summary: Northern Hemisphere 3YO that is lightly raced usually = winning formula for the Melbourne Cup. He ran a beauty in the UK Derby behind City Of Troy before a third in the Gordon at Goodwood. Nominated for both Cups so it will be interesting to see where he goes but with Ciaron Maher, expect him to run well in whatever he contests. But, I will say on his UK form, overall, he needs to improve.
Vauban
Breeding: Galway x Waldfest
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Career Stats: 20: 8-5-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2200m/3382m
Career Best Win: Lonsdale Cup, August 23 2024, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 2-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 12: 6-3-1
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Back for redemption from last year…but I am keen to oppose him.
Key Replay: 2023 Melbourne Cup, November 7 2023, Flemington, Good Surface
This is the key replay for me. I thought Ryan Moore gave him every chance in the run but when it came to crunch time, he folded and was very disappointing, eventually finishing 14th, with jockey Ryan Moore offering up no excuses post race for the below part effort.
Final Summary: He’s back for redemption after failing in this race last year as a dominant favourite. I will concede that his 2024 form does read very well and has clearly improved. But, I will say that I still have a query at him at a very strong two miles. The win at York was just a win and he was found out in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. If he wins, too good, but if he wins the race, I am losing from a betting perspective. I’m opposing him hard.
Warp Speed
Breeding: Drefong x Deep Love
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Career Stats: 22: 4-3-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/3000m
Career Best Win: Handicap, October 29 2023, Kyoto, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 20: 4-3-4
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-0-0
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Runs well in the Caulfield Cup, but the first Tuesday in November looks ideal.
Key Replay: Tenno Sho, April 28 2024, Kyoto, Good Surface
T O Royal is one of the best Japan has to offer and this guy kept on quite strongly in a very good effort when fifth. Form out of the race has been very strong, which it tends to be with these elite Japanse contests.
Final Summary: The Japanese are elite when it comes to 2400m+ races and this guy does bring very strong form from Japan. Latest run was in the Tenno Sho and was only beaten four lengths by T O Royal, a superstar over there. Nominated for both Cups but I dare say will use the Caulfield Cup as a tune up en route to the first Tuesday in November, where he looks a serious winning chance.