Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Monday’s (6/5/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 4.30pm Sunday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $30815
Betting Strategy Return: $32471
Futures Outlay: $1945
Futures Return: $1871
Benalla
$40 Win/$60 Place Inkslinger R6 @ $21/$5 (TAB)
Benalla Overview:
Possibly runs at Mornington on Tuesday, but if he goes around here, I just think he’s the wrong price. Brian McGrath trains this three year old, who to the eye hasn’t done much in both runs back from a spell, but have to bear in mind they’ve each had good depth to them and he just hasn’t been suited. Finds a really winnable race here third up. Would prefer him at a mile, but can see a couple of runners out wide having to press forward, so hoping Nolen can get three wide cover and launch out wide. If that happens, he’s certainly not a $21 chance.
Grafton
$100 Multi @ $5.32 (Sportsbet)
Without Risk R4 Win ($1.9)
Caro Cavallo R6 Place ($2.8)
Grafton Overview:
Not really one to dive into an odds on pop, but I think $1.90 Without Risk is value. Loved the way she attacked the line to win here first up before going to the 1400m at the Gold Coast where she ran well but was no match for Guise, and she came out and stamped her QLD Oaks claims at the Sunny Coast last Sunday. No depth at all to this field, the $1.90 is overs IMO. Taking her in a multi with Caro Cavallo, who has two runs back from a let up now, so he should be hard fit and if this track remains to have genuine give, he looks better placed. Just found the sit/sprint scenario a tad sharp last week but was sound in defeat. I see a good rolling tempo here via Westrock/My Song and he’ll be strong at the end of 1400m if that eventuates.
Alice Springs
$50 E/W Flow Meter R8 (Tote)
Alice Springs Overview:
Don’t think there is a real standout in the Cup despite the market being a huge fan of Savatoxi. Flow Meter is just an absolute beauty and go back to last year, John Hickmott and Sairyn Fawke had great success on the dirt at Darwin. This horse ran in this race last year and was a little unlucky in defeat after getting checked late when building momentum. Recent form is much better compared to this time 12 months ago, he can take advantage of the inside gate if need be…$8 atm is a bit skinny, but with likely support for the fav, and perhaps Leider, I can see Flow Meter getting to $10+ and I think he can only run well.
