The 2020 Spring Carnival will be one of the most unique of the modern era due to the current climate of the world that’s going through Covid 19. But touch wood, racing goes ahead and the Spring Carnival goes off without a hitch.
The first of the ‘Big Three’ in Melbourne is the Caulfield Cup and here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners for the 2400m feature.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Caulfield Cup
HORSE TO BEAT:
Master Of Wine
Odds 💰: $10 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Maxios x Magma
Trainer: Team Hawkes
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 15: 5-5-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/2400m
Career Best Win: Sky High Stakes, March 14 2020, Rosehill, Heavy Surface
Dry Track Stats: 9: 3-3-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 2-2-1
Short Summary: The #1 seed from Sydney for the Cups.
Why He Can Win?
It’s all upside, upside, upside with this guy. Went through his grades in the Autumn before contesting the Queen Elizabeth where he was amazing in defeat behind Addeybb, a run which proved he’s well and truly a rising star. Gives the impression he’ll eat up a staying trip.
Why He Can’t Win?
While he gives the impression he will eat up a staying trip, still got to prove it against the big boys and girls. Only time has raced at 2400m was during last Spring when beating up an average lot in the Tatts Cup. His best efforts have been in Sydney, so will he handle Melbourne again, and especially Caulfield.
THE X FACTOR:
Aktau
Odds 💰: $26 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Teofilo x Rare Ransom
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 8: 4-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2400m
Career Best Win: Mornington Cup, March 21 2020, Mornington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 4-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-0-1
Short Summary: If we get a dry track for Caulfield Cup Day, I think he’s right in contention.
Why He Can Win?
Gained ballot exemption via a win in the Mornington Cup, not really a race that’s proven to be a great guide for the Caulfield Cup, but he has showed class since day one in Australia and that was a true staying test at Mornington, which he passed with flying colours.
Why He Can’t Win?
In the scheme of things, he’s done nothing yet and has beaten nothing. He’s already got a guaranteed start, so I dare say the stable will head down the WFA path leading into the race. Second/third up is when we’ll get a real guide as to what this guy is capable of and if he can measure up.
ONE FROM LEFT FIELD:
Dalasan
Odds 💰: $51 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Dalakhani x Khandallah
Trainer: Leon Macdonald/Andrew Gluyas
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 15: 7-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1000m/2035m
Career Best Win: Carbine Club Stakes, November 2 2019, Flemington, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 3-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 7: 4-1-1
Short Summary: Has the brilliance to win a Caulfield Cup. Does he have the stamina?
Why He Can Win?
He has the brilliance. He’s been very effective over the shorter trips aka 1400-1600m throughout his career and did show towards the end that a longer trip will be okay, running a game second to Russian Camelot in the SA Derby, confirming that a staying trip is not out of reach.
Why He Can’t Win?
I’ve said for a while that if they kept him to 1600m, especially a handicap, he would be a good thing to win one, races like the Toorak or Cantala. Leon Macdonald has said that he’s being targeted towards this and/or the Cox Plate, so will be very interesting to see how he returns.
ONE AT STUPID ODDS:
Vanna Girl
Odds 💰: $51 at Sportsbet – BET NOW
Breeding: Husson x Logan’s Choice
Trainer: Team Edmonds
Nationality: Australian
Career Stats: 10: 7-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1300m/1800m
Career Best Win: The Roses, June 13 2020, Eagle Farm, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 7-2-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Short Summary: Can sprint off a slow speed, can charge through the line in a fast run race…she’s likeable.
Why She Can Win?
We just don’t know how good she is. Took all before her during the Brisbane Winter and I dare say if it was a traditional Winter Carnival, she would have won the Oaks and gone very close in the Derby. She’s got that look about her that reminds me of the last horse to do the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup double, Ethereal.
Why She Can’t Win?
Not sure about the strength of what she beat up during the Winter, albeit she was impressive in doing so. Different gravy is the Caulfield Cup and I dare say will need to win a decent race to get her rating up. Realistic target would be the Matriarch during Cup Week at Flemington, but dare to dream.
