Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Friday’s (21/6/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Thursday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $42410
Betting Strategy Return: $44123
Futures Outlay: $2565
Futures Return: $2391
Coffs Harbour
$25 E/W Delius R7 (Tote)
Coffs Harbour Overview:
I reckon this bloke is going very well but was hoping for a bit better than the $9 on offer at the time of writing. Think he’ll start double figures and that will be acceptable. Thought he was very good in defeat two back at Casino before going to Murwillumbah when well off the speed but found the line well late in the piece. Bigger track looks ideal, Peter Graham jumps on and I think the rise to 1600m will suit.
Canberra Acton
$50 E/W Our Finvarra R7 @ $8.5/$3.1 (Bet365)
Canberra Acton Overview:
Note that 365 was the only bookie with odds up at the time of writing. Rises big time in grade/depth, but can’t let him go around at $8.50 without some coin on. Was all over him at this track/distance two weeks ago and if you were on, it was a horror watch. The form guide will say he beat two runners home, beaten three lengths, but I think clear air and he would have just about won. They should go very quick here, he’ll drift back and hopefully stay away from the inside to peel wider and launch late.
Pakenham Synthetic
$20 Parlay 3,4 = $100 Cost
Take Stock R1 Place
Edinburgh R3 Win
Ardee R4 Place
Rewarding Effort R7 Place
Pakenham Synthetic Overview:
I reckon Take Stock has returned in really good order for Tim Hughes and gets a good draw over an ideal trip for the first time this prep and I think is clearly the value runner in the first. Confident he runs top three and hopefully stays around the $2.8-$3 mark. Edinburgh looks the good thing of the day but no spoils re price. Bumped into a city class horse first up but didn’t stop chasing. Normal luck and he wins. Really surprised Ardee is an $8 chance in the fourth. I think his last couple of runs have had merit, both on heavy tracks, but do believe that his best winning chance these days is on Synthetic tracks, and from an side gate with Olly on, he really appeals. No surprise to see Rewarding Effort potentially run well fresh. Hasn’t won in over two years, but it’s been just about that long since he has raced against a field as weak as this, and his best form has been on Synthetic tracks, notably Pakenham. May need a run before we see him at his premium, but near $15 for a win, I think he can run top three.
Rockhampton
$25 E/W Style Line R3 (Tote)
Rockhampton Overview:
Wide open race this and I thought at hopefully double figures Style Line is the bet. Ran over 1300m at this track last time where she was well back in the run and never really a winning threat, but liked the way she found the line late in an eye catching effort behind Strawberry Blonde, and that form has already been franked. Looks like the 1400m will suit and hopefully remains double figures.
Royal Ascot
$10 Win Silent Wave R1 @ $13 (TAB)
$30 Win Private Secretary R2 @ $4.8 (BetEasy)
$40 Win Hermosa R4 (Tote)
$10 E/W Collide R6 (Tote)
Royal Ascot Overview:
Silent Wave interests me. Charlie Appleby trains this filly, who debuted over this trip at Goodwood when a heavy favourite and didn’t give punters a moment of concern with a commanding on speed win and ran good time relative to the day. Looks a smart customer and has the solid 1200m under the belt, which should help her cause. John Gosden trains Private Secretary, who dodged the Derby and comes here with fresh legs. Thought his win at Goodwood was enormous given he was back in the run and they absolutely crawled in front, giving those from behind little chance, but he still managed to pick them up. Pace should be more genuine this time around and he does have a good turn of foot. Hermosa does look the good thing of the Carnival. Best filly over a mile in the UK quite comfortably and that was evident in the Thousand Guineas at the Curragh, being on speed and she absolutely bolted in, winning by a space and running fast time. The depth behind her doesn’t look great overall and she is just on an upward spiral it seems. Looks the winner. Collide is a Hugo Palmer trained son of Frankel who has J Mac steering. He comes through the 2400m race at York where Fujaira Prince ran second in and for mine, he had his chance to win but couldn’t quite get the job done, having to settle for fourth. The big tick for him is the track has give, and his career best runs have come on wet ground.
