Vauban goes in favourite for this years Melbourne Cup
The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the 2023 edition highlights a fab ten race card at Flemington today and we go through each of the runners and outline their chances in a quick two minute form guide for punters who don’t have the time to spend hours trying to find the winner.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Melbourne Cup
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2023 Melbourne Cup Runner Preview:
1. Gold Trip: The defending champ that looks to be flying. His feet issues are seemingly under control and his form this time in has been outstanding. Brave third in the Caulfield Cup before backing up in the Cox Plate and his run was an absolute beauty in defeat. Proven performer and while he loses Zahra, he does get J Mac fresh off a Cox Plate win. Hard to beat, clearly, but I’d wait come jump time and you’ll get the best price. He’s a definite threat.
2. Alenquer: First time at 2400m+ in Australia was last start in the MV Cup and he was luckless, albeit held, but he should have finished much closer after getting too far back and held up at a time when he needed to build the revs. There are signs of life after looking like a donkey…enough to win a Melbourne Cup? No, but top ten wouldn’t be a silly bet.
3. Without A Fight: Outstanding winner of a high rating Caulfield Cup, the fastest in over 15 years. He was second up, several weeks between runs, so it was a fair training effort from Team Freedman. Mark Zahra sticks with him over defending champ Gold Trip due to the weather forecast. He was proven right in the Caulfield Cup…will he be proven right on the first Tuesday in November? Only time will tell, but history says horses weighted 55kg+ this century run well. Since 2000, eight winners have carried 55kg or more. I think he’s another that you should wait til jump time to get the best price. I’d want decent double figures before diving in.
4. Breakup: I think he’s a big improver from the Caulfield Cup. He was ridden with intent, settling much closer than expected and looked a winning threat on the turn but condition gave way. Bigger track, 3200m, improvement to come re condition, fitness…pen a Japanese horse in a Cup at your peril.
5. Vauban: Handles all conditions, he stays, he has change up speed, he is trained by a master, he’s a proven weight carrier and from all the vision seen with trackwork etc, he looks to be flying. It’s near impossible to say a horse is a good thing in the Melbourne Cup…but he could be a good thing.
6. Soulcombe: The more you look at the Caulfield Cup, his run was incredible, and he should have won IMO if he jumped cleanly. Bombed the start by six and in the fastest Caulfield Cup since 2007, he was chasing from the outset and did a remarkable job to get as close as he did. His barrier manners are a serious worry but if he jumps better and doesn’t spend too many petrol tickets, he’ll take beating I am sure.
7. Absurde: I think of the Ebor as the Geelong Cup. Once upon a time, it was a great guide towards the Melbourne Cup. Now, it’s just another staying race, and I suspect the 2023 Ebor will prove that to be the case again. He’ll stay, he’ll be popular with punters…but I don’t think he has the quality to win.
8. Right You Are: He ran a super race from on speed in the Caulfield Cup, and was pretty much a lone survivor of those near the front. But I don’t think 3200m is his go in life and for mine, is going to struggle.
9. Vow And Declare: He is eight years of age but is racing very well, having placed in the Might And Power the start prior. Billy Egan is a patient rider that likes to put his horse to sleep so that sort of ride will suit this horse. I doubt he wins, but he can run top ten.
10. Cleveland: Scratched
11. Ashrun: Had a suck run in the Geelong Cup and presented to win but just found one better in Amade in a very bunched Geelong Cup. Remarkable job to get him into the Melbourne Cup given where he started but he’s not good enough.
12. Daqiansweet Junior: Got back off the speed and found the line well enough in the Herbert Power and his 3200m form is solid…but he just doesn’t have the quality to measure up.
13. Okita Soushi: He stays, he is down in the weights, he won’t mind a firm deck…the only knock I have on him is the quality and the form around him. It’s pretty poor. I can’t back him to win but he won’t disgrace himself.
14. Sheraz: He teases to be a good horse but he just gets too far back in the run. Under an injury cloud, which is never ideal leading into a Cup. At best, a top ten chance.
15. Lastotchka: French staying form generally stands up in the Cup but she looks like an absolute pony and despite being right down in the weights, I’d be surprised if she measured up. Trip no issue, but I don’t think she has the quality.
16. Magical Lagoon: Attempted to lead throughout in the Geelong Cup and gave a decent sight but just felt the pinch late. She has the Waller polish, but the form around her this time in is plain and I can’t see her being a threat at all.
17. Military Mission: Gai talking up a runner…in other breaking news, water is wet. He is racing really well this guy but he brings second/third tier form, so IMO, he’s nowhere near good enough to figure in the finish.
18. Serpentine: Gai and Adrian have done a super job with this guy to get him back being a decent stayer given he looked like a donkey once upon a time. That said, he’s nowhere near good enough to threaten this lot.
19. Virtuous Circle: After the Bart Cummings, I declared him as the best of the locals to knock off Vauban, but gee he let me down in the Geelong Cup. But, to me, it looked like he wasn’t there to win. He had the suck run and loomed but just flattened out. He has been assured a run in the race all Spring so the stable hasn’t needed him screwed down. Off his Naturalism/Bart Cummings runs, he’s good enough to threaten.
20. More Felons: He is one of a few in this race where I think no, he can’t win, but for exotics, like top ten, I think he’s a great. Trip no issue, handles dry ground, upside, Waller polish, right down in the weights…for mine, he only runs well.
21. Future History: He is the Maher/Eustace horse of the ilk of Persan, Grand Promenade etc that go through their grades and get into the Cup as a lightweight chance. Won’t shock me if he sticks on and runs top ten, but I do have others clearly ahead of him.
22. Interpretation: I was really keen on him earlier in the prep being a Cup horse and while he hasn’t been bad this time in, that Bendigo Cup win…you couldn’t back him to win with confidence and that is why he goes through to the keeper.
23. Kalapour: The ride won the race in the Archer. He is a horse who I do have time for and I always respect runners who win the Archer into this…I just can’t see him winning. Outside top ten hope.
24. True Marvel: He is a stayer that will just keep chipping away and keep on finding the line. Could I back him to win? No, definitely not, but again, he’d be a great top ten bet because the trip is no issue and he usually runs well in 3200m+ races.
2023 Melbourne Cup Speed Map
I can see three main horses that have early speed. Serpentine looks the likely leader, drawn soft. Future History led throughout in the Bart Cummings and will slide across, as will Magical Lagoon, who they rode with intent in the Geelong Cup. Military Mission and Right You Are won’t be far away early.
2023 Melbourne Cup $100 Betting Strategy:
$50 Win Vauban (Tote/SP)
$25 Okita Soushi Top 10 @ $4.20 (Ladbrokes)
$25 Virtuous Circle Top 10 @ $6 (Ladbrokes)
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2100
Group l Strategy Return: $2530
2023 Melbourne Cup Odds:
