Some very sharp sprinters will step out this Saturday for Group l glory in the Moir Stakes (1000m) at The Valley.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 Moir Stakes.
2024 Moir Stakes Speed Map
I think the map is pretty straight forward here. I can’t see Lady Of Camelot wanting to hunt up and hold the lead with speed outside, so I dare say she’ll lead and then opt for cover from Estriella, who does look the leader and in turn, will give the cart over to Caballus. I Wish I Win, ideally, could land 1/1, but I dare say sits three back one off.
2024 Moir Stakes Runner Preview:
1. I Wish I Win: I remember last year, Peter Moody said about I Wish I Win that when he resumed in the Memsie, he didn’t need to be wound right up for it given it was 1400m and that there was petrol in the tank. 12 months, here he is resuming at 1000m and I reckon he’s wound right up. His jumpout work has been strong and last time he was at the 1000m, his run in the Lightning was incredible. If he handles the track and is within range, look out.
2. Mornington Glory: Mornington Glory has been a revelation the last 6-12 months and is clearly liking The Valley so he has earned a crack. Lot to like about his Carlyon won two weeks back, sitting off speed, making a sustained run and was strong to the line in winning. I say no, he can’t win, but maps to do no work and is a must for exotics.
3. Johnny Rocker: Fascinating runner. I don’t think he is sharp enough for 1000m but I think from the gate, he does no work and will be strong late. Not sure he has the quality to win but he can run top four without surprising.
4. Caballus: Potentially, a kind map for him getting outside Estriella, but I just don’t think he’s good enough. He has real flaws in his form IMO and this is different gravy. But, I have said this about a Bjorn Baker sprinter previously and I’ve been burned. But, I don’t think he can threaten. Should be the rank outsider.
5. Chain Of Lightning: Quality mare when right but is she sharp enough for 1000m? Moved well to win a recent jumpout at Pakenham and does race very well on the fresh side. There is forecast for rain Thursday and Friday, so whether that impacts the track, not sure, but she maps ideally. Slight overs IMO.
6. Estriella: Estriella looks to be absolutely humming for Ciaron Maher. Most of these runners are here to make a statement for The Everest and she is probably leading the line for that given what she did in the Autumn where she looked like a jet before an end of prep run in the Sangster. Her trial/jumpout work has been electric, has been set for the race…very hard to beat.
7. Coleman: Better run in transit and he is probably a Golden Slipper winner. But I have thought his jumpout/trial work this time in has been really poor and hasn’t screamed out of a horse who can win a 1000m Group l fresh. If he wins, too good, but for mine, he’s got none. Not sure he has come up.
8. Lady Of Camelot: Can’t deny her winning claims with the weight, the map and the intent from the trials. Slipper winner that looks prepped right up to run a beauty and the set up just looks perfect for her. Maps to stalk Estriella, Caballus drops off and she gets her chance. Hard to beat…but for mine, is too short.
9. Hayasugi: I can see her being very dangerous. Blue Diamond winner that does need to step up to the plate but gee her trial/jumpout work has been sizzling. Loved her jumpout and then her trial behind Pharari last week was very good. The only knock is can she give them a start and a beating? You’ve got 50kg on her back and a decent price to find out.
2024 Moir Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
Two best horses in the race are I Wish I Win and Estriella. Going to have $40 Top Fluc win on both of those. And then going to have two $10 Top Fluc win bets on Hayasugi and Chain Of Lightning.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $200
Group l Strategy Return: $0
