It’ll be a case of déjà vu for connections of Lumosty when the watch the Fastnet Rock filly go around as the favourite for Thursday’s Group 1 VRC Oaks. In 2011 they watched their top-line filly Mosheen streak away from the field to record an impressive seven length after having won the G2 Fillies Classic (1600m) at her previous start, the same race which Lumosty comfortably won a fortnight ago at Moonee Valley. Punters are happy to stick with the formula and have made Lumosty the $4.60 favourite for the race in what is shaping up as a competitive renewal of the Oaks.
Stable-mate and second favourite Crafty ($5.50), along with Fontein Ruby ($13) give Caulfield trainer Robert Smerdon a strong hand in the race whilst Warwick Farm conditioner John Sargent will be hoping to claim his second Oaks in as many years with Thunder Lady ($7). Go Indy Go ($6) along with Abduction and Set Square at $8 each of two, are the other runners in the race under double figure odds
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1. FONTEIN RUBY – M Zahra (6)
After winning the G2 Edward Manifold (1600m) and defeating the males in the G3 Caulfield Classic (2000m), the Turffontein filly went into Saturday’s G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) as top-weight (57kgs) and a leading contender. Drawing the second to widest gate in the field of twelve, she had to do a little work early before finding her favourite position in the lead but didn’t offer as much resistance as expected in the straight, running sixth (4.6 lengths) behind Thunder Lady. Back to set weights and a better draw both advantages but Saturday’s effort is cause for concern.
Odds: $13.00
2. GO INDY GO – C Schofield (5)
Put a disappointing first up effort behind her with three good runs since, the most recent of which was a third (2 lengths) behind Moonovermanhattan in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m). Came from well back in the run there, a position not many made ground from on the day and beat home Bondeiger who ran a narrow second in Saturday’s Derby. Shaping up as though the 2500m will suit, as will the Flemington track, and she has to rate one of the better chances.
Odds: $5.50
3. CRAFTY – J Spencer (3)
Finished twelfth first up off a seven week break but was only starting to warm to her task the last bit over the 1400m at Caulfield before running stable-mate Fontein Ruby to a neck, when third in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at her following start, closing strongly from the back of the field. At her only start since, she again gave Fontein Ruby, who led, a healthy start as the field turned for home in the G3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) before hitting the line in good style to finish second (neck). Last two starts suggest she’s spot on for this and should get a cheap run from an inside draw.
Odds: $5.50
4. LUMOSTY – N Hall (9)
Started favourite for the G1 Thousand Guineas two starts back but got a long out of her ground in that race, which was dominated by those closer to the speed, and did well to finish within the 3.4 lengths that she did from winner Amicus, crossing the line alongside of Go Indy Go. She was then ridden more prominently in the G2 Fillies Classic (1600m) settling second in the run. With the race run at a moderate pace, she was in the box seat and extended nicely in the straight to record a 2.5 length win over Tahni Dancer. Is a class filly and the connections have a good measuring stick in Mosheen but the jump from 1600m to 2500m, combined with the draw which may see her in need of some luck out of the straight the first time, have others preferred.
Odds: $4.50
5. THUNDER LADY – T Berry (8)
She broke her maiden in the best possible way by finishing strongly to claim Saturday’s G2 Wakeful Stakes by three quarters of a length over Abduction. The Mastercraftsman filly was given a great ride by in-form Blake Shinn on Saturday, tracking up nicely turning before finding the split at precisely the right time at the 300m. The Wakeful is always a good pointer to the Oaks and she’ll have no problems seeing out the trip.
Odds: $7.00
6. ABDUCTION – K McEvoy (7)
The Street Cry filly was luckless two starts ago when fourth (1.7 lengths) behind Muscovado and Kermadec (winner of Saturday’s Carbine Club Stakes) and looked a short price to make amends for that run when the field straightened for home in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes (2000m). She found Thunder Lady, who tracked her from the 600m home, a shade too strong over the final stages and finished second (0.8 lengths). May have made her move a touch early on Saturday and being her first go over 2000m on Saturday, would think she’ll improve again but maybe not enough to turn the tables on her successor last start and a few others.
Odds: $8.50
7. GOLCANDA – V Duric (1)
The only win for the Robbie Laing trained galloper has surprisingly been over 1000m – the Listed Desiree Girl Stakes at her second start. She got home steadily without ever worrying the winners when fifth (6.7 lengths) in the Listed Ethereal Stakes (2000m) and was again making ground well late when fourth (2 lengths) in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes (2000m). Peeled out to be the widest running in the straight and wasn’t that far off them on the line. Would appear the distance should not bother her in the slightest but just wonder if she’s a bit too dour.
Odds: $21.00
8. SET SQUARE – J Bowman (2)
She made it two wins from three starts with a two length victory over Maastricht in the Listed Ethereal Stakes (2000m) just over a fortnight ago. The daughter of Reset was three back on the fence as they turned for home and secured a beaut split at the top of the straight to record a comfortable win. Will get a similar run here from gate two and can’t be ruled out of running another big race here. Nick Hall rode her and Lumosty in the respective last starts and has decided to go with Lumosty.
Odds: $8.00
9. GAME OF FAME – D Oliver (4)
Queensland filly who finally cracked her maiden win, at career start number seven, when successful in a Sunshine Coast maiden (1800m) as even money favourite two runs back. Came down for the Geelong Classic (2200m) and from the second half of the field, closed steadily to run fifth (3.6 lengths) behind Nozomi and Preferment – that pair running 3rd and 1st respectively in Saturday’s Derby. Not a bad form-line and has the services of Oliver who bagged a G1 double on the weekend.
Odds: $41.00
10. IMPERIAL LASS – L Nolen (12)
Settled well back and failed to make an impression in the run home at each of her starts prior to lining up in the Listed Ethereal Stakes (2000m). She was put into the race by Nolen and found a lovely spot on the speed, sticking on well to claim third (2.4 lengths) behind Set Square and Maastricht. Had every chance last start and drawing wide here will be of no help.
Odds: $26.00
11. YESTERJOY – J Cassidy (11)
Regally bred filly who only win to date from five starts, has been a 2000m Hawkesbury maiden three starts back. Despite facing a massive rise in class, she came south to contest the Geelong Classic where she was beaten a long way into eleventh place before, from an on-pace position, batted her way home for fifth (3.8 lengths) in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes behind Thunder Lady. Draw poorly here and even if she goes forward or back from her gate, hard to see her winning this race on current form.
Odds: $34.00
12. HIPSTER GIRL – B Melham (10)
Despite being a maiden, the Jason Warren trained galloper has been contesting the leading 3yo fillies races over the past month where, not surprisingly, she’s come up several lengths short on each occasion. She finished steadily for fourth (5.7 lengths) in the Listed Ethereal Stakes before being posted three deep throughout in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes and running eighth (7.1 lengths). Easier races than this one available for her.
Odds: $41.00
RACE OVERVIEW
Competitive renewal of the Oaks with more than just a few legitimate chances to consider. Mosheen was an above average galloper hence her ability to handle the jump from 1600m to 2500m when she won the Oaks and not sure Lumosty’s in the same class just yet. She may have also been a bit flattered last start, landing in the right spot on a moderate tempo. At the current price, happy to take the chance to be proven wrong. Sticking with those that I’m confident will see the trip right out. Crafty as the one on top, she’s been finishing well her last two starts with the most recent, against the males, shaping as a good effort given Light Up Manhattan’s, whom she beat home, subsequent fourth in the Derby. 2500m and a good draw seem ideal as it will be for Go Indy Go who was good last start from back in the field. She too beat home a subsequent Derby place-getter in Bondeiger and will appreciate getting back to her own sex here.
- CRAFTY
- GO INDY GO
- THUNDER LADY
- SET SQUARE
