Group l racing at Morphettville continues this Saturday with the three year olds doing battle in the South Australian Derby (2500m).
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 South Australian Derby.
2023 South Australian Derby Speed Map
Promises Kept led throughout at Bendigo last time but now with Maher/Eustace, leading isn’t really in the make up for the stable. Dunwoody led throughout in the St Leger so I think he will be in front. Captain Pluto will hold a forward spot from the inside gate, while drawn wide, Ain’t He Grand likely will slide across and settle in the first few. I don’t expect much pressure early but likely will get rolling from around the 1000m.
2023 South Australian Derby Runner Preview:
1. Suizuro: Just an odd ride I thought in the Chairmans. Had a good run in transit but Froggy elected to make a mid race move and poured the pressure on a fair way out. He tried hard and was beaten just under a length, but the ride, IMO, was poor. He’s flying and IMO gets a big upgrade with Opie Bosson coming over from NZ to steer. Likeable.
2. Aberfeldie Boy: He has come back in really good order and commands respect. Dominant maiden win fresh at Ballarat before being thrown in the deep end at Pakenham and yes, had the right run of getting cover from the wind and found the line strongly in an open handicap. Back to his own age, up to 2500m, he only runs well.
3. Dunkel: The forgotten horse IMO is clearly Dunkel. He’s a very good horse for Patrick Payne and I still have the belief he can be a Cups horse in the Spring. Forget the Alister Clark run on All Star Mile Day, where the track was suiting those up/in, and he was back last. His late splits were excellent relative to the race and has been kept on ice with this race in mind. Loved his recent Ararat jumpout, he’ll be strong at 2500m and has the brilliance factor.
4. High Approach: High Approach is a handy three year old for Archie Alexander that comes with fresh legs, having not raced since the Australian Derby where he ran a brave fifth to Major Beel after settling near last in the run, working home with real purpose. Kept up to the mark with a Horsham jumpout win when pushed out and responded well. He’ll be strong late and has good upside compared to most.
5. Red Sun Sensation: He’s racing like 2500m will be ideal. The Chairmans two weeks ago became survival of the fittest and he was the strongest late, with the ground saving steer from Williams being a big help in winning the race. Off that, 2500m is no issue and has to be respected.
6. Bengal Boy: Has been kept on ice since taking out the Galilee Final at Sandown. He did work in the run and was entitled to knock up but he just kept finding under pressure and in a driving finish, he slogged it out best. The trip will be no issue…just depends on the quality he has, whether he’s got enough to measure up.
7. Loco: Ability/brilliance wise, he is probably #1 seed. Just not sure 2500m will suit. He seemingly had his chance in the Chairmans but found one better in Red Sun Sensation. IMO, I can’t see him turning the tables on that horse here so I am keen to take him on.
8. Gottabesavvy: He is a horse in pretty good form and is racing like 2500m will be okay. Strong effort to beat the older horses over 2000m at Ballarat last time, getting the suck run before angling clear and drove hard late to win. Not sure he has the class, but will stay the trip.
9. Promises Kept: Promises Kept is the big query. Formerly with Greg Eurell, Brae and Ozzie got involved, bought him and is now with Maher/Eustace. He hasn’t raced since a dominant all the way win in the St Leger Trial at Bendigo, and yes, was helped by the track pattern, but even allowing for that, he was dominant. Moved well enough in a Cranbourne jumpout to my eye and stable is flying.
10. Ain’t He Grand: He’s not that good is he? He was just fair in the Tulloch then much the same in what wasn’t a deep Frank Packer Plate. Fresh legs and up to 2500m is an interesting set up. The gate makes things very tricky and I just don’t think he’s up to this level.
11. Dunwoody: He was a big price when winning the St Leger but a couple of smarties were on and knew he’d keep finding. The ride from J Childs helped, getting control in front, and the horse just kept finding under pressure. I think he’ll need a similar ride in order to win given there is clearly more depth.
12. Captain Pluto: Earned his spot in the field off the back of a strong win last Friday night at Cranbourne. He had the suck run in behind before angling clear and finished best to win well. He’s bred to eat up 2500m and maps to do no work…could I back him to win? I am saying no.
13. Northern Barrage: 2500m has to be the query with him. He seemingly had every chance in the Galilee Final behind Bengal Boy but was very one paced when asked. Was beaten narrowly, but given prior efforts and the run he had, he was entitled to win the race. I can’t have him.
14. Reservoir Dog: He’s a nice horse and bless him for winning at Warrnambool. 1700m to 2500m under two weeks is a tricky set up. I think the trip will be fine. Just depends what start he gives form the barrier. Knockout chance if he gets a drag into the race.
15. Prince Tikea: Good local horse that will win races with the right placement. But, this is clearly a bridge too far.
16. She’s Fit: She has done a mighty job this time in for Dan Morton. Another stride and she wins the SA Oaks two weeks ago, driving hard late to just miss out on picking up Affaire A Suivre. Chris Parnham comes over to reunite with the filly…I do think 2500m is the query, but hard fit, in form, weight pull, she appeals.
17. Extrarevz (First Emergency): John Sargent three year old with staying potential = respect. Didn’t beat much last time in a 2200m Class One/Maiden at Scone but the manner in which he put them away was impressive. He’ll have no issue with 2500m, and can slide forward. If he gets a run, he’s in the mix.
18. Nightsun (Second Emergency): He is one that will have no issue with the trip. He ran in the St Leger at Sandown and was pretty good from the back, finishing a close up fourth to Dunwoody. He’ll be stronger than most at the end. Just depends if the race shape is there for a stayer to shine.
19. Impending Link (Third Emergency): Didn’t fire in the Chairmans and is safely held here.
20. Samuel Langhorne (Fourth Emergency): He seems very one paced so the trip won’t be an issue. But unlikely to get a run and don’t think he has the class/quality.
2023 South Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
Happy to have $20 Win/$80 Place on Dunkel at $12/$3.50. He’s the forgotten horse and clearly the value.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $6650
Group l Strategy Return: $3969.50
