The first of the majors this Saturday at Caulfield is the time honoured Thousand Guineas (1600m).
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 Thousand Guineas.
2024 Thousand Guineas Speed Map
GaiBott have two runners in the race, Too Darn Lizzie and Dominetta, and they look as though they have front end control, with the former likely holding up. Geegees Mistruth can glide across from out wide, while Stage N Screen has a better gate vs last start and can use it to advantage.
2024 Thousand Guineas Runner Preview:
1. Too Darn Lizzie: I think you have to be forgiving of her run at Flemington given it was a day where leaders found it near impossible to stick on due to the headwind, so forgive and forget I say. The win here the start prior was strong, and if she does get frond end control, she’ll give cheek I am sure.
2. Aeliana: Aeliana has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Chris Waller trained filly that was arrogant in winning the Carbine Club on Derby Day where she gave them a start and an absolute beating, winning with a leg in the air. Stable won the race last year and they look on track to repeat the dose.
3. Geegees Mistruth: Got too far back in The Vanity but did make up headway. She has been around the mark throughout this prep but she hasn’t shown me enough to say she can improve and win a race like this. I think she’s a risk at the current odds. I’d want $21+.
4. Zeitung: She was kissed on the date with the run/ride in The Vanity but she still had to take advantage and she did, winning well. Maps perfect again and loses nothing with J Kah on. One of the leading contenders.
5. Double Market: I think she’s an Oaks horse for the Autumn but she has got talent. Beat nothing, lucky to win, the Fillies Classic at The Valley, but she was still quite strong and impressive late in the piece. The lack of tempo, potentially, is the knock, but if they overdo it, she’ll be one of the strongest late.
6. Dominetta: Had a suck run in transit in The Vanity and had her chance but was still pretty good in defeat. Should get on speed pretty comfortably…I just query how strong she’ll be at the end of 1600m.
7. Matisse: Got the A1 run in transit in The Vanity and tried hard but had no answers late for Zeitung. The gate makes things tricky given I think she’ll concede too much headway.
8. Another Prophet: Safely held by Aeliana in the Carbine Club and I don’t see anything to see her turning the tables, or improving.
9. Supercilious: Supercilious looks the each way gamble for mine in an open Thousand Guineas. I thought her run on Cup Day was one of the runs of the day in defeat against the pattern, getting back and wide but worked home with real purpose against the pattern. Racing like 1600m suits and with a more economical run in transit, she takes beating at a price.
10. Lovelycut: Lovelycut is a filly that has an engine under the hood for Reece Goodwin. She ran in The Vanity two weeks back where they rode with intent near the speed and kept on in a pretty good effort behind Zeitung. I think with a more patient steer, she’ll be more effective.
11. Benagil: She’s a sleeper at odds. Really caught the eye in The Vanity, getting back in the run but closed off with real purpose, clocking good late splits. She’ll be spotting them a start but she gives every indication of eating up the mile.
12. Let’s Fly: She has talent and the last start maiden win was outstanding, but this looks a bridge too far.
13. Stage N Screen: I thought she was very brave in the Amanda Elliott but that form looks very suspect and I think it may be all too soon for her.
2024 Thousand Guineas $100 Betting Strategy:
$20 Win/$80 Place Supercilious (BOB via Topsport)
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2700
Group l Strategy Return: $1547
2024 Thousand Guineas Odds:
