The second of the majors at Randwick this Saturday is the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m), where Newmarket Handicap winner Joliestar heads betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2025 TJ Smith Stakes.
2025 TJ Smith Stakes Runner Preview:
1. Overpass: Overpass is a fascinating runner. He has eyes on The Quokka but can fly fresh and has the right racing pattern. He resumes, having not raced since the Winterbottom when on speed throughout and gave nothing else a look in to win and win well. Trial work has been excellent, he’ll press forward and only run well.
2. Jimmysstar: Given the way the track played, his run in the William Reid was incredible. Back, wide, made up a stack of ground…gee he was good late. I think he has to be one of the winning threats.
3. Jedibeel: Not given much hope with the ride in The Galaxy but was okay late. He’s flying, but he’s not up to these.
4. Headwall: I keep thinking he’s not up to this level, but he was good in the Oakleigh Plate, excellent in the Newmarket, then the trial last week…my goodness he smoked. I still doubt he wins but for wider exotics, entertain.
5. Briasa: Purely priced on potential vs what he has done on the track. Yes, flashing light in The Galaxy, but he did finish alongside Growing Empire, and I am now on the side of the fence in saying that horse is no good. He can win, clearly, but I’d want double figures.
6. Sunshine In Paris: I am stunned that Sunshine In Paris was near double figures earlier in the week. She is a star mare and one of the best sprinters in the business, as seen in the Champions Sprint. She resumed in the Canterbury Stakes where she was held up at times but against the pattern but she found the line with real purpose behind Royal Patronage. Tick over trial, work between races, each time she has stepped out, she has looked fabulous. She’ll eat up the 1200m and launch late, hopefully over the top.
7. Joliestar: Joliestar comes here with fresh legs for Chris Waller after an arrogant Newmarket win where she gave them a start and a beating in an electric performance. I will say, it wasn’t a deep Newmarket but it was first look at the straight course and she handled it comfortably. Tick over trial was strong and she does seem to fly on the fresh side.
8. Magic Time: I thought she was going to be saved for the All Aged so the fact she runs here tells me she’s flying for Beggy. Good effort in the Canterbury and her tick over trial was sharp. Maps perfect, strong late, reliable…she’ll be around the mark.
9. I Am Me: Can barely run 1000m at this level never mind 1200m. Like the jockey booking but she should be much longer in betting.
10. Kimochi: Flying but the gate just worries the heck out of me. But, she should get cover and if she’s within range, she has the finale to launch late and her price is too big for mine.
11. Switzerland: Blinkers first time tells me this is a kitchen sink, last throw at the stumps. Two runs this time in have been just fair and yes, has an ideal map, but I just don’t think he’s any good.
12. Traffic Warden: I reckon Shinn could force the issue and go forward on him here. Has been freshened up since the Lightning and moved well in a recent trial. Drying track, he flies fresh…he’s a sleeper at odds.
13. Shezanalister: She reminds me of Belluci Babe from 2022. Runs here then backs up a week later in the Sapphire, which will be her target race. Not for me here.
2025 TJ Smith Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
$20 Win/$80 Place Sunshine In Paris
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5350
Group l Strategy Return: $2973.50
2025 TJ Smith Stakes Speed Map
It’s a Group l over 1200m but it looks void of early speed. Overpass is the sole leader and on paper, he’ll get complete control. I Am Me will land outside him but is a query at 1200m so she won’t apply early pressure. Magic Time lands box seat and I dare say Switzerland will settle handy.
2025 TJ Smith Stakes Odds
