The first key major of Cup Week at Flemington is the Victoria Derby (2500m) on Saturday, with a full field of 16 and four emergencies accepted for the $2 Million contest, which should be run on rain affected ground if the weather forecast is correct.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Victoria Derby.
2021 Victoria Derby Speed Map
Short run to the first turn so it’s a bit up in the air as to who goes forward. Gundec was on speed when winning the Derby Trial here so he can be near the pace. Clyde sat near the speed when winning at Scone last time so could be in the first few. Outside that, it’s hard to find an on pace runner. Akihiro won’t be far away from a good draw.
2021 Victoria Derby Runner Preview
1. Forgot You: There has to be a query on what’s left in the tank. That was a brutal Vase on Saturday and they walked home after a mid race burn by Commander Harry. On form, he’s the one. But I want to take him on given he’s been up a while and the petrol tank could well read empty. Then again, I could have egg on my face because the stable want to back him up in the Melbourne Cup regardless of the result here.
2. Tutukaka: Jury was out after his opening two runs, but he bounced back hard last Wednesday in the Geelong Classic with a dominant win and as good as Lane is, it’s a significant jockey upgrade with James McDonald steering. Now he has that winning feeling, he could go on with it.
3. Alegron: I think he’s the one at a really good price. Bit of a question mark on these Melbourne 2000m+ races, whereas he comes through the Spring Champion at Randwick at Group l level and ran a super race behind a potential star, Profondo. 2500m no issue and though McEvoy was down to ride, he gets an upgrade IMO with Prebble and is a great each way bet here.
4. Gunstock: Fascinating to see what they do from the gate. Loved the way he ran to the line and through it when winning the Caulfield Classic last time, looking every bit a Derby horse. Distance no issue. The issue being where does he get to from a sticky gate.
5. Akihiro: Thought he battled on really well in the Vase last Saturday, but like most in the race, was a very tired horse on the line. Gets a draw to do no work, but how much did the run last weekend take out of him.
6. Character: He didn’t throw in the towel in the Geelong Classic behind Tutukaka but on the line, the Kiwi was just edging clear of him, so I can’t see him turning the tables on him here.
7. Jungle Magnate: Real one batter but stayed on soundly in the Vase, which followed a close up second in the Hill Smith at Morphettville. I think he is the sort of horse who will bounce out of that run and I think is a winning chance.
8. Commander Harry: One of the rides of the Spring from Meech in the Vase, just nabbed late by stablemate Forgot You. Off that run, he’ll have no issue with the trip. But you’d have to think he has an empty tank after that gut buster.
9: Hitotsu: 1600m to 2500m third up, a few weeks between runs…would be some training effort, but it’s the Maher/Eustace camp we are talking about and they are the best in Australia when it comes to the distance range. He was excellent in the Caulfield Guineas and is clearly hard to beat here.
10: Cerberus: With due respect, he was a lucky winner of the Hill Smith at Morphettville. I thinks most would agree that Blackcomb should have won the race and that filly was beaten a fair way in the Vase on Saturday. Nice horse, but not here.
11. Gundec: Track pattern helped him win the Derby Trial before a solid effort in the Caulfield Classic. Potentially gets a soft run from the good draw and is a first four contender.
12. Clyde: This could be one of the better $201 chances I’ve come across. Race shape was totally against him in the Spring Champion. He then lumped 59kg against older horses at Scone and was impressive in winning, with big gaps throughout in fast time. He’ll settle handy, he’ll stay, has the Spring Champion form…he is just stupid odds.
13: El Rocko: Given a peach two back but couldn’t win an ordinary maiden at Sale. Every chance in the Vase and wasn’t good enough. He’s still a maiden and that’s his level for now.
14. Raging Bull: This horse will have no issue with 2500m. Bolted up over 2100m two back before a good closing effort in the Spring Champion behind Profondo. Gets a rise in trip and David Payne is a gun with these progressive younger stayers. Definite winning chance.
15. Cheerful Moment: Nice horse, but not going well enough to win a Derby, especially after his Vase effort. Looking elsewhere.
16. Teewaters: Gave them a spanking in a maiden at Ballarat two back. He then went to the Caulfield Classic where he was nearer the inside and battled on well when third. 2500m should be fine for him…is he a winning chance? I’m saying no, but a first four chance.
17 Zoumon (First Emergency): Strong on speed win in a testing 2000m race on Moe Cup Day. Always like three year olds that beat older horses over a trip early in the season. I think he’s in with a shout at a big price.
18. Sebastian The Fox (Second Emergency): Wasn’t too bad in the Caulfield Classic but can’t see him beating this lot.
19. King Of Pharoahs (Third Emergency): Market loved him in the Geelong Classic and was very one paced in the straight when fourth to Tutukaka. Doubt he gets a run but even if he does, can’t see him turning the tables on the Kiwi.
20. Spirit Of Gaylard (Fourth Emergency): He’s a Derby horse next year. Too soon this time around, but he’ll make the grade next prep. Nice horse.
2021 Victoria Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
This looks a deadset lottery on paper. I am casting the bet far and wide in search of the winner. $30 Win goes on Alegron. Tutukaka gets $20 Win, likewise Gunstock. The other $30, I’ll have $5 Win/$10 Place on Clyde at $201/$51, and the other $15, I’ll have $5 Win/$10 Place on Raging Bull at $61/$16.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2080
Group l Strategy Return: $1646.5
