The feature race at Flemington this Saturday is the Victoria Derby (2500m), where the depth isn’t deep but it’s the first of the classic 3YO races for the calendar year.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 Victoria Derby.
2024 Victoria Derby Speed Map
I think the early speed comes from out wide. Hot Too Go looks the first to the fence from out wide, and drawn outside him are Oxford Blue, West Indies and potentially El Castello, who may look to get the drag across from the wide gate.
2024 Victoria Derby Runner Preview:
1. El Castello: El Castello picks himself I think. It wasn’t a strong tempo last Saturday in the Spring Champion but what you had to like was how strong he was to the line because Henlein was there to put him away but he found and on the line was safely holding them at bay. If that hasn’t busted him, which I don’t think it will, then he’s the one to beat.
2. Red Aces: Just a win in an ordinary Vase last Saturday IMO. I think the trip is okay, I think, but he doesn’t have the quality and I am surprised he is the price he is.
3. Keeneland: After the Caulfield Classic, I thought he was no chance. But, the jockey booking of Hugh Bowman looks perfect given he will stand over this horse and take no BS, especially in a big race like this.
4. Goldrush Guru: He got the senior rider on in the Hill Smith and he made an absolute mess of them. The query is J Kah. Can she stand over this horse, or will her kind hands work against the horse? I am thinking the latter.
5. Saint Emilion: Saint Emillion looks to have that sense of timing and overall, it’s not a deep Derby. He won the Geelong Classic and while he beat nothing, he was very strong to the line and the way he put them away was impressive. He has the C Maher polish, no issue with 2500m and I dare say will be strong late. Commands respect.
6. Kingofwallstreet: He surged hard best to win a weak Caulfield Classic but is giving the indicators of appreciating 2500m. But, is he good enough to win? I am saying no.
7. Politely Dun: Was pretty good against the pattern and race shape in the Vase but I think that form is plain. $12/thereabouts seems very short for mine.
8. King Of Thunder: The Vase form is plain but he was the run of the race by lengths. Not given the best of steers by J Mac but he kept finding to just miss on the win. Maps perfect and off that effort, 2500m is no issue. In with a shout.
9. Tenbury Wells: Interesting that he didn’t run in the Spring Champion and has been kept on ice for this. He didn’t do a bad job in the Gloaming and was sharp the start prior at Kembla. Have to respect the stable in these staying races.
10. Peru: Was okay in the Vase but not up to these I feel.
11. China Sea: China Sea is the only one I want from the Caulfield Classic into this. He should have won there IMO but just got held up at the wrong stage and didn’t have the clearest of paths when it came to building momentum, just missing out on the win. He’ll love the rise in trip and he has the John Sargent touch, who knows how to win a big staying race for the youngsters.
12. Hot Too Go: Looked to have every chance in front in the Geelong Classic and did fight hard but was held on the line and I can’t see him threatening.
13. Scary: Race shape was totally against him in the Caulfield Classic so a total forgive. I think he’s a nice horse but not measuring up here.
14. Oxford Blue: Looked to get his chance in the Geelong Classic but was no match late. He’s going to struggle at the end of 2500m.
15. West Indies: Looked to have every chance in the Caulfield Classic in front and was quite plain late. Not for me.
16. Autumnheat: Would be a good thing in a maiden. But, not up to these.
17. War Ribbon (First Emergency): He needs a scratching to get in but if he does, he’s right in the mix. His win at Newcastle was arrogant and he looks a three year old on the up, that also can press forward. If he gets a run, he’s a single figures chance.
18. Checcheti (Second Emergency): Maiden please.
2024 Victoria Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
$20 Win/$80 Place Saint Emilion (Best Of The Best via Topsport)
Group l Strategy Outlay: $1800
Group l Strategy Return: $865
2024 Victoria Derby Odds:
