Andrew Hawkins dives into this years Melbourne Cup and has compiled the most comprehensive preview of the race that stops the nation. Checkout the report and get the information you need to have a successful bet on this years cup.
1. Viewed (9)
2008 Melbourne Cup winner returning to the race which made him. In much better form this year, including his Caulfield Cup win and a third in the Mackinnon Stakes when galloped on from behind. He’ll be somewhere in the finish.
Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner is back to the scene of the crime. Twelve months on, he is a much more mature horse, and he comes into the race off a sensational win in the Caulfield Cup. While it is his jockey’s first ride in a Melbourne Cup, his trainer is Bart Cummings, who has won 12 Melbourne Cups, and at the moment is in sparkling form. His run in the Mackinnon on Saturday was the perfect Melbourne Cup trial, and Bart looks to have him peaking at the right time. He won’t be 40-1 this year, but he looks like he’ll be somewhere in the finish once more.
2. C’est La Guerre (7)
3rd last year but has had his issues this year. Lloyd is known as quite shifty, so can’t take anything at face value. If at his peak, he can run a bold race.
Last year’s third placegetter, and winner of last year’s New Zealand Derby. Aside from his first up run, he has been dismal this campaign. He was not in form last year either, but at least he was running better than he has this year. The excuse has been that he has had a back complaint. However – when Racing Victoria’s stewards checked over the Lloyd Williams horses, they found him perfectly fine. This means that it has been fixed, or that it was never there in the first place. Hopefully it is the former, as this would mean that he is ready to run a bold race. The Williams camp has stated, ever since they bought him, that the 2009 Melbourne Cup would be the target. So, despite his poor form, I am going to say that you must consider him. Probably can’t win, but I can see him placing again at generous odds.
3. Fiumicino (24)
2007 AJC Derby who punters have a hard time catching. Depending on what Fiumicino turns up to Flemington, he could sneak into a place at mammoth odds.
The 2007 AJC Derby winner who punters have a hard time catching. On his day he is a superb stayer, as shown by his wins in the Derby, the 2008 Hill Stakes and the 2009 BMW. As well, his runs in The Metropolitan and the Caulfield Cup were full of merit. However, he has had one run at 3200m (in this year’s Sydney Cup) and he was disappointing. It is hard to entertain a Fiumicino victory, especially from the outside stall, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the roughie who could sneak into a place at mammoth odds.
4. Master O’Reilly (16)
2007 Caulfield Cup winner who is consistent without winning. Had a good campaign this year, and finished off solidly in the Mackinnon on Saturday. Definite chance.
The 2007 Caulfield Cup winner who is very consistent without winning. His campaign this year has been very good, and he has been trained with this race in mind. His Mackinnon run on Saturday had Melbourne Cup written all over it. He ran a good 4th in the race last year when he was very unlucky and should have finished closer. There is still some uncertainty about his ability to run a strong 3200m, but you would be mad not to think that he will be in a good position when the whips are cracking. Chance.
5. Mourilyan (14)
The enigma of the internationals. By all reports he has settled into Australia well, and on form he seems to be the right sort of horse for the Melbourne Cup. Ranks on top.
Personally, I think this horse is the enigma amongst the international horses this year. His form is very respectable, which involves a mix of both 2000m-2400m Group 1 races in Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada and Dubai, and staying races in England and Ireland. He has a good turn of foot, and on his day, he would be competitive in any staying race. He is proven at 3200m, and he has a globetrotting jockey in Glyn Schofield aboard. All the reports from Sandown have been very, very good. At good odds, I really like Mourilyan, and he ranks on top for me.
6. Roman Emperor (15)
The AJC Derby winner with good form beyond 2000m. Yet to run two miles, but gives the impression it will suit him. Will go very close.
This year’s AJC Derby winner is another runner for Bart. He appears to be an out and out stayer, who can produce a good turn of foot at the end of a staying trip. In other words, exactly what you need for a Melbourne Cup. He has raced at 2400m twice for a win in the Derby and a second in the Caulfield Cup. While there is some query about Montjeus over 3200m, he gives the impression he’ll stay it, and he has been the best backed runner in the last few days. He should go very close.
7. Ista Kareem (23)
Sydney Cup winner who’s been disappointing this spring. The prospect of a firm track has me looking elsewhere.
Sydney Cup winner who hasn’t fired this spring. He ran okay in his first three runs this spring, then showed a glimpse of his old form in The Bart Cummings four weeks ago. But he disappointed once more in the Moonee Valley Cup, when he was unsuited by the firm track. On his best 3200m form, you’d have to give him some sort of chance. But with the prospect of a firm track, I’m looking elsewhere for my bets this year.
8. Crime Scene (11)
Godolphin horse who ran an okay race in the Geelong Cup. Looks one paced, is a query at 3200m, not a winning hope.
Godolphin’s second stringer who is now their only hope with the scratching of Kirklees. It was an okay run in the Geelong Cup, but he looked like a one paced horse rather than a horse suited to a sit and sprint. He has some okay form in Britain, but he is a query at 3200m and I can’t see him winning.
9. Munsef (5)
A British-trained 8yo who seems to be ever improving. He seems the right type of horse for the race, the class is the query. I can’t have him on top.
Munsef is an 8yo by Australian standards, but he seems to be ever improving. His form this season has been top rate, including a victory in the Chester Stakes over Basaltico. His last run was in the Stockholm Cup, where he was far from disgraced – and the only horse to have come through the Stockholm Cup into the Melbourne Cup was 1997 4th placegetter Harbour Dues. There is no doubt that he is the right mould of horse for the race – I’m just a bit concerned about the class. Wouldn’t surprise, and I have him in a double, but I can’t have him on top.
10. Zavite (3)
Adelaide Cup winner who has been set for this race. He is the likely pacemaker, and it is hard to see him winning in this class. Place chance on his best.
The Adelaide Cup winner who has had an okay preparation for the race. They have been trying to qualify him for the race for the last three years, but this is the first year that he will actually run. He has had only one start at 3200m for a dominant win in the Adelaide Cup. That day, he didn’t really beat horses that you would consider Melbourne Cup material, with the exception of Banana Man. He is the likely pacemaker in this field, and he will ensure a strong gallop. Whether he will be able to win in this class is doubtful. Nevertheless, I give him a place chance on his best form.
11. Alcopop (12)
Fairytale story of the Cup who is coming off a dominant win in the Herbert Power last start. If he stays 3200m, he has a good chance.
The fairytale story of the Cup – a “bush” trainer with a small team of horses who has got his lightly raced horse with an ordinary pedigree but an explosive turn of foot into the biggest race of them all. He has gone from strength to strength this campaign, and has improved every start. His 3.3 length demolition job in the Herbert Power was something special, and (although it isn’t so easy) if we take a line through Zavite, who he beat by 7.3 lengths, he would have won the Caulfield Cup by a length!! As I say, not so simple. However, there is no doubt that the freshen up will suit – if he can stay 3200m, he has a good chance.
12. Harris Tweed (20)
AJC Derby placegetter out of form. Would need to improve out of sight to win this. Only consider if wet and a bog track.
AJC Derby placegetter who is out of form. His last two runs, to be frank, have been poor. He was one of the favourites in the Kelt Capital Stakes when he ran 14th, and he didn’t relax and held his ground only when 10th in the Caulfield Cup. If he can settle, then he has to have some chance of running an improved race. It is a quantum leap, however, to see him winning this race. Could only come into considerations if it’s wet and a bog track.
13. Kibbutz (8)
2007 VRC Derby who has disappointed since that win. Improved effort last start and the fact he’s been schooled over jumps means he warrants some consideration, but probably needs to produce too much improvement to win here.
The 2007 VRC Derby winner who has not placed in 11 starts since that win. However, his last run in the Moonee Valley Cup was much improved on anything he has produced. He has been schooled over jumps this week, and this has worked with horses like Efficient in the past. He also is racing like two miles will suit right to the ground. Nevertheless, I can’t see him producing enough to challenge some of these horses.
14. Newport (18)
Last year’s Metropolitan winner, not racing at his best. It is felt that he isn’t really a 3200m horse, and he isn’t in better form this year, despite his good Mackinnon run. I can’t have him.
A popular grey galloper who hasn’t been at his best this spring. He won The Metropolitan last spring to put him in contention for the Cup, where he finished 10th. However, he ran terribly as one of the favourites in the Sydney Cup in the autumn, and Hugh Bowman said he didn’t feel he was a 3200m horse. His run in the Mackinnon on Saturday was just what you would want to see from a Melbourne Cup aspirant, but I don’t think he is running better than he was last year. Therefore, I can’t have him.
15. Warringah (17)
Lightly raced stayer making his debut for Australian connections. His Ebor run was admirable, and if the form holds up, he’ll be right in the money.
A lightly raced British stayer who has been purchased by Australian connections to do his future racing in Australia. For this assignment, he has effectively been jointly trained by Chris Waller (his new Australian trainer) and Sir Michael Stoute (his British trainer). His effort in the Ebor Handicap was admirable, considering that he had to do a lot of the donkey work, was taken on in front, had to lump 62kg and still finished 5th, only a length behind the winner Sesenta. In the past, Ebor Handicap form has usually translated to a good Melbourne Cup run, and I think that Warringah can continue the good run of Ebor horses. He drops to 53kg for the Cup, and as long as the track is firm, he’ll be right in the money.
16. Spin Around (4)
Auckland Cup winner who has had an interesting preparation. Hasn’t fired in two runs this campaign, but this preparation is similar to his Auckland Cup preparation, and as a result he is a roughie to include in your trifectas and first fours.
This year’s Auckland Cup winner, he has had an interesting preparation for this race. His first up run was only two weeks ago in the Seymour Cup, where he was flattened and should have finished closer than 12th. He then stepped out at Geelong for their Cup 3 days later, and he ran 10th after running very wide from the 800m mark. He is probably outclassed in this field, but he had a similar preparation leading up to the Auckland Cup and so he may be a roughie to include in trifectas and first fours.
17. Gallions Reach (6)
Kiwi stayer who is badly out of form. Despite a better run at Bendigo last start, this is beyond him. No chance.
Group 1 winning Kiwi stayer who on his day can produce a great run. Despite a better run in the Bendigo Cup last start, he has been horribly out of form this spring. If he was to win the Melbourne Cup, it would be a sad indictment on our great race. I think the race is safe though – he has no chance at all.
18. Basaltico (10)
Cumani runner who hasn’t fired in Britain this season. Victim of poor ride at Geelong, an improved showing is on the cards. Probably can’t win, but I can see him running a nice 5th or 6th.
Runner from the Cumani stable, who have run second the last two years. He hasn’t really fired this season in Britain, but there is no doubt that he was the victim of a poor ride at Geelong. He raced on that occasion like the further, the better. However, he did show a good turn of foot, and I think he would have improved out of that race. With the query over the Geelong Cup form, I probably couldn’t see him winning. An improved showing is on the cards though. Probably a nice 5th or 6th.
19. Capecover (19)
New Zealand stayer who has been slightly disappointing this spring, although his last start was promising from a Melbourne Cup point of view. He won’t carry my money this year.
NZ stayer who was in peak form last spring, running 3rd in the SAAB Quality and winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He has been slightly disappointing this preparation, but he has been aimed solely at this race, and his last run in the Bendigo Cup was fantastic from a Melbourne Cup perspective. Nevertheless he will probably find it hard to finish in front of Shocking and Alcopop, who towelled him in the Herbert Power a few weeks ago. He will only finish in the top 10 if the race is run to suit. He won’t carry my money this year.
20. Daffodil (21)
An impressive 2400m horse who ran very well in the Caulfield Cup. However, don’t like her over 3200m. Not this year.
This year’s impressive AJC Oaks winner. She has been in good form this spring, winning the Windsor Park Plate at Group 1 level before running 4th in both New Zealand’s biggest race, the Kelt Capital Stakes, and the Caulfield Cup. The Melbourne Cup has been the target all along, and Hugh Bowman said after the Oaks that she would be better suited to the Melbourne Cup than the Caulfield Cup. However, she is not bred to get two miles – her sire, No Excuse Needed, has only had one runner past 2600m. Personally, she reminds me of Princess Coup and Boundless – both class mares who struggled to get 3200m. Not this year.
21. Shocking (22)
Emerging stayer who had been in okay form prior to his dominant win on Saturday. Has to be considered, but place preferred.
This horse emerged earlier this year as a very promising stayer, and he started a warm favourite for the Queensland Derby on a bog track – he finished a game 2nd to Court Ruler. Before Saturday, his form had been okay – two placings behind Alcopop and a good 2nd in the Coongy Handicap behind Baughurst. However, his win in the Lexus Stakes was extremely impressive. On that run, he has to come into contention, but he meets Alcopop worse at the weights and he’ll find it hard to turn the tables. Place only.
22. Allez Wonder (13)
The third of Bart’s runners who ran 8th in the Caulfield Cup following an impressive Toorak Handicap win. Bred to get two miles, but doesn’t give the impression she’ll stay. I’m happy to risk.
Bart’s girl, almost enough said!! However, she has had three runs beyond 2000m, and twice she has failed. Last start, there is every possibility she may have been ridden too close. Her win in the Toorak earlier in the spring was impressive, but that also means that her only two wins have come at a mile. She is bred, on her dam’s side at least, to get two miles. Whether she does, however, is a massive query. She was my tip in the Caulfield Cup, but I’m happy to risk her on Tuesday.
23. Changingoftheguard (1)
Northern Hemisphere 3yo formerly trained in the Ireland by Aiden O’Brien, now with David Hayes. Had his issues but, with 50.5kg, a major chance.
This lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3yo has always looked a very promising type. Formerly with Aiden O’Brien, the controversial trainer of last year’s Cup, the colt is now trained in Australia by David Hayes. He had 7 starts in Great Britain and Ireland for two wins and a further three placings. Arguably, he should have another win on his record, with bad checks and blocks in the Ebor Handicap undoubtedly costing him victory. As a NH 3yo, he will carry only 50.5kg in the Melbourne Cup, a luxury compared to English weights. Only one other NH 3yo has run in the Melbourne Cup, Mahler, and he ran 3rd. Also, the Ebor Handicap has proven time and time again to be a great form reference. Although he was disappointing last start, it may be wise to forgive that run for he was poorly ridden. He has a big race specialist in Glen Boss aboard, and although he has had his issues along the way, it would be insanity not to concede him a major chance.
24. Leica Ding (2)
Emerging stayer who won the Geelong Cup. Despite looking like the 3200m will suit, fair form before the Geelong Cup and a query over that form sees me considering her a rough place chance only.
Another emerging stayer who put herself into contention with a good last to first win in the Geelong Cup. Her form before that was fair, but she has always shown that she would be better up to a staying trip. She is a winner up to 3000m, albeit in weaker company, and she has a featherweight for the Cup. However, there are doubts over the Geelong Cup form – seemingly confirmed when 2nd, 3rd and 5th all failed in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday. I think that she’ll be a good stayer for the 2010 spring, but I think that she has only a rough place hope this year.
Summary
While there are still some good horses running, the race has really fallen away in the last few days. Nevertheless, the Melbourne Cup is always a great race, and come 3pm on Tuesday, I’ll still be extremely excited. Having looked through the form, and made comparisons, I am of the opinion that the internationals have a strong hand to play this year. They have brought the right horses this year, rather than the class horses that they have brought in the past. There are three internationals I am keen on – that being Changingoftheguard, Mourilyan and Warringah. I have come to the conclusion that Mourilyan looks the horse to beat. He has a lot going for him, and he seems to have the right balance of class and stamina to win the Melbourne Cup. For 2nd, I’m going to look to the locals. The best local hope to my eye is Roman Emperor, his 2nd in the Caulfield Cup was fantastic, and he gets weight off Viewed here. If he stays 3200m, and can produce the same turn of foot, he’ll be mightily hard to beat. My 3rd selection is Changingoftheguard, the Northern Hemisphere 3yo who has an extremely light weight in this race. He reminds me a lot of Mahler, and the Ebor form always stands up. I’ll throw Warringah in for fourth. I have had him on top for a long time, but the drift on Betfair today has alarmed me. I think that he’ll run a bold race, but next year will be his year. Other horses that I think can win are Master O’Reilly, Viewed and Alcopop – and perhaps C’est La Guerre.
Written by Andrew Hawkins