The European flat season is in full swing, and with that being the case, connections from there and indeed Australia will have eyes on their runners as potential candidates for the Spring Carnival down under later this year.
Here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners likely to make the trip for the big races.
The Big 3 Races:
Caulfield Cup 🏆: View the latest Caulfield Cup odds
Cox Plate 🍽: View the latest Cox Plate odds
Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the latest Melbourne Cup odds
Marmelo
Breeding: Makfi x Minkova
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 22: 7-8-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2414m/3000m
Career Best Win: Prix Kergolay, August 18 2019, Deauville, Heavy Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 4-5-1
Wet Track Stats: 9: 3-3-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Third time lucky in the great race?
Melbourne Cup (3200m), November 6 2018, Flemington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Heavy Surface
Plenty of controversy about this run given that jockey Hugh Bowman weight in 1kg overweight, with some saying that cost him the win. Trained Hughie Morrison disagreed, saying that the horse hitting the front too early cost him the win. But in those conditions, it was a mighty effort in defeat in one of the more testing Melbourne Cups in recent memory. Outstanding run.
To view the replay click here.
Prix Kergolay (3000m), August 18 2019, Deauville, Clockwise Direction, Heavy Surface
Just loved this win. Sat off what looked a decent enough tempo before Soumillon eased him wider on the turn looking for better ground and he lengthened beautifully to win impressively in a race which had good depth to it and confirmed his ticket on the plane to Melbourne for another crack at the great race. Subsequent form out of this race has seen a couple of placings, with the runner up finishing second at Group l level. Haky placed next start then of course failed in the Herbert Power, but looks a tired horse.
To view the replay click here.
Final Summary: Morrison has got the formula right with him I think. Fresh, give in the track, patient ride and ambush them late, as we saw when he won at Newbury, his first run since the Melbourne Cup. Normally I pen horses who have previously ran in the Cup without winning and they’re trying again. But he was just so good last year and in 2017 when favourite, he was ridden far too close to the speed. If he brings his best and gets conditions to suit, he’ll take some beating.
Prince Of Arran
Breeding: Shirocco x Stormng Sioux
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 37: 6-8-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/3200m
Career Best Win: Lexus Stakes, November 3 2018, Flemington, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 29: 6-7-3
Wet Track Stats: 7: 0-1-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Got some good form behind world class horses…he’s in the game off the Lexus win.
Melbourne Cup (3200m), November 6 2018, Flemington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Heavy Surface
He was mighty in defeat. Another that hit the front too early and jockey Michael Walker did say that post race. Wish he just waited a touch longer to push the button and believes he would have won if he had done that. His best form is on dry ground but this was a clear career best on a near bottomless surface and it took a couple of high class stayers to get past him.
To view the replay click here.
September Stakes (2419m), September 7 2019, Kempton Park, Clockwise Direction, Synthetic Surface
His opening few runs for the year were concerning, but he showed something positive here in a race that included Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution. Got the split via the cutaway and stuck on well for third in what looked an okay race on paper, nothing deep re class, but it was good to see him run better as he heads to Melbourne again. Subsequent form out of this race has seen eight runs for one win, a Listed race won by the fifth place horse Mountain Hunter. Ninth place horse Pivonie ran third to subsequent Group l winner Desert Encounter in a Group lll.
To view the replay click here.
Herbert Power (2400m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
This confirmed he loves racing down under. Very good in defeat but at the same time, gut wrenching for Fellowes because a win would have assured him a start in the Melbourne Cup. The stop/start tempo Haky set was against him. If they kept rolling from the outset, I think Prince Of Arran gets the win. Still very good in defeat.
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Geelong Cup (2400m), October 23 2019, Geelong, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Tough, tough win from on speed. Admittedly being on speed/near the rail was no disadvantage but he was there to be run down but showed really good courage late under Michael Walker to win and is now assured a spot in the Melbourne Cup.
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Final Summary: As it stands now, I can’t see Prince Of Arran beating Marmelo home in a Melbourne Cup. Marmelo comfortably beat home Old Persian in the Coronation Cup and that horse beat Prince Of Arran at Meydan. It was a wonderful story last year with Charlie Fellowes and the breath of fresh air he was for the Carnival. Would love to see the horse get back to his best. But rather watch than back him at this stage despite the Herbert Power and Geelong Cup efforts.
Danceteria
Breeding: Redoute’s Choice x Bal De La Rose
Trainer: David Menuisier
Nationality: French
Career Stats: 17: 7-0-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2000m
Career Best Win: La Coupe Stakes, June 10 2019, Longchamp, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 16: 6-0-2
Wet Track Stats: 1: 1-0-0
Target Race(s): Cox Plate
Short Summary: One of many internationals to target the Cox Plate post Winx.
Eclipse Stakes (2000m), July 6 2019, Sandown, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He was given no chance of figuring in the finish behind the world’s best in Enable, but despite starting $51+, he ran an enormous race, closing off with purpose late to run fourth to the champion mare and 200m after the line, he was alongside her. Outstanding run in what was a world class race. The subsequent form has seen first and second both win at Group l level and the fifth horse has won at Group ll level.
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Preis Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (2000m), July 28 2019, Munich, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
This win ensured an invite for the Cox Plate. Speaking to part owner Jamie Lovett the following day, he told me that jockey Jamie Spencer told him that the horse hated the wet ground and that it was class that got him home, which is such a good sign for a horse when they can overcome difficulties and still get the job done. The subsequent form has seen 11 runs for one win at Group lll level by the fourth place horse.
To view this replay click here.
Cox Plate (2040m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Was wide throughout and never really a factor in the run, capping off a forgettable couple of weeks for the stable, with Jamie Spencer saying post race that the horse was on the wrong leg the entire trip.
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Final Summary: Just scrap the Cox Plate run. Nothing went right from the start for him in a total forgive/forget run. He is likely now to press on towards the Mackinnon in what is shaping up to be a beauty.
Mustajeer
Breeding: Medicean x Qelaan
Trainer: Kris Lees
Nationality: British/Australian
Career Stats: 20: 4-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2787m
Career Best Win: Ebor Handicap, August 24 2019, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 1-2-2
Wet Track Stats: 8: 3-1-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: High up in the Melbourne Cup market. I have my doubts.
Curragh Cup (2800m), June 28 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
This race produced the 2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling and the 2019 edition of the Curragh Cup looks like it will have an influence on the 2019 Melbourne Cup with several runners potentially heading to Melbourne from this race, including Mustajeer, who ran fifth but in another stride he runs third and I thought it was an excellent run in a high class race. The subsequent form has seen 13 runs for two wins, the two wins coming from Melbourne Cup aspirants Latrobe and Southern France.
To view this replay click here.
Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 24 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Gee this was a ripping steer from Colin Keane. The track pattern said outside fence was the place to be, so he cut the corner and saved plenty of ground before eventually finding better ground out wide and he found plenty under pressure to score and confirmed his ticket to Melbourne for the big Handicaps. The subsequent form has seen 12 runs for two wins, Withold winning a Listed race at Newmarket and Weekender winning a three horse handicap at Salisbury.
To view this replay click here.
Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 19 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Really solid pipe opener for the Melbourne Cup. Just lacked the turn of foot of the winner Mer De Glace, but really liked his last 50-100m when strong to the line and through it. Another good Melbourne Cup trial.
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Final Summary: Now with Kris Lees and is on track for the Melbourne Cup, the race he was specifically purchased for. The Curragh Cup looks an excellent form reference, but most seem to be jumping up and down about the Ebor. The Ebor, overall, has bee a rubbish form reference for the Melbourne Cup, so I think the Curragh Cup is the form line you want to be looking at.
Royal Meeting
Breeding: Invincible Spirit x Rock Opera
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 3: 2-0-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1400m/1411m
Career Best Win: Criterium International, October 28 2018, Chantilly, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 1-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 1: 1-0-0
Target Race(s): Unknown
Short Summary: Very, very interesting arrival.
Maiden (1411m), September 19 2018, Yarmouth, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
The bets were landed with this very slick debut win. Looked to be no chance 400m out. Was niggled at, not really responding, but once Buick for fair dinkum and pulled the whip, the change up speed was there and he attacked the line like a really good horse heading places. Six winners have come out of this maiden, so the form has been ticked off.
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Criterium International (1400m), October 28 2018, Chantilly, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Had the A1 run in transit on the back of Hermosa and just proved too good for her. Hermosa has since gone on to be a multiple Group l winner and place at Royal Ascot, so the form reads great once again and like the debut, he knuckled down really strongly when asked for the effort.
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Moonga Stakes (1400m), October 19 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Very brave effort first up after the long spell. Was wide no cover throughout and didn’t appear to get around Caulfield too well but balanced up and kept finding the line to run third to a tough nut in Streets Of Avalon.
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Final Summary: Thought it was a definite pass mark in the Moonga considering the run he had. Onwards and upwards to a race like the Cantala Mile and you’d assume the wider surroundings of Flemington and up to the mile are two massive ticks.
Dream Castle
Breeding: Frankel x Sand Vixen
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 18: 4-2-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1800m
Career Best Win: Jebel Hatta, March 9 2019, Meydan, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 15: 3-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-1-1
Target Race(s): Unknown
Short Summary: His best will see him competitive.
Al Rashidiya (1800m), January 24 2019, Meydan, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Pretty sharp win from this bloke, who was near the speed throughout before being clicked up early on in the straight and put them away to win impressively, with that field including Blair House, who of course ran so well in Melbourne during the Spring 12 months ago. The subsequent form has seen 13 runs for 0 wins.
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Jebel Hatta (1800m), March 9 2019, Meydan, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
That turn of foot between the 300-100m was stunning. Put them away in a couple of strides after getting the perfect trail, three wide with cover, and it was all over once Soumillion pushed the button. Keep in mind this race did produce Blair House and Benbatl last year, who of course measured up big time in Melbourne. The subequent form has seen 16 runs for 1 win, coming from the 7th place horse at Group ll in Chester back in May.
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Caulfield Stakes (2000m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
I think just put a line through this run. Wide no cover for the entire trip and at Caulfield, especially at the 2000m start, that’s a near suicidal mission. Cosgrove tried to find a decent spot near the speed and almost got in, but in the end was caught wide and that was his race done and dusted there.
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Crystal Mile (1600m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Looked to get a decent enough run in transit, but was a beaten horse on the turn and dropped out badly. He looks a tired horse and raced accordingly after a gutbusting Caulfield Stakes run.
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Final Summary: His next few runs after the Jebel Hatta were ordinary, but personally, I think he had his Grand Final in the Jebel Hatta. He’s a tired horse now, so I dare say he’ll go back home.
Red Galileo
Breeding: Dubawi x Ivory Gala
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 42: 3-14-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/2816m
Career Best Win: Handicap, January 12 2017, Meydan, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 35: 3-9-4
Wet Track Stats: 7: 0-5-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Getting on in years and going okay without raving. Wet track would help his cause
Handicap (2816m), June 8 2019, Newmarket, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Wasn’t the strongest race going around, but it was a dominant win over a staying trip. Kirby always had the stayer going sweetly in the run and he did look the winner a fair way out, drawing clear late and winning with something in reserve it seemed. The form out of the race since has seen 38 runners for just one win, which is a bit of a concern.
To view this replay click here.
Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 24 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Good, tough staying effort from the veteran. Admittedly he found the best ground but took advantage of it and finished off his race with real purpose to run a very credible second in one of the better staying handicaps Europe has to offer. In recent years though, it’s been a suspect form race for Melbourne. The subsequent form has seen 12 runs for two wins, Withold winning a Listed race at Newmarket and Weekender winning a three horse handicap at Salisbury.
To view this replay click here.
Geelong Cup (2400m), October 23 2019, Geelong, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Solid effort from him here. Just got tightened up at the top of the straight and lost momentum, but once he balanced up, he was really good to the line and through in an encouraging Australian debut.
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Final Summary: He is getting on in years, but his last few runs have been encouraging. If we got a wet track on Melbourne Cup Day, I think he’d be a top ten chance, especially with 52.5kg on his back, but unlikely to get a run.
Mirage Dancer
Breeding: Frankel x Heat Haze
Trainer: Trent Busuttin/Natalie Young
Nationality: Australian/British
Career Stats: 17: 4-5-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2412m
Career Best Win: Glorious Stakes, August 3 2018, Goodwood, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 14: 4-4-3
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-1-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Looks to be going better in 2019 compared to last year.
Hardwicke Stakes (2406m), June 22 2019, Royal Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Really good effort from him here in a time honoured race. Sat outside a moderate speed before forcing the issue around 1000m from home and looked to travel well. Just lacked the turn of foot to go with Defoe but stuck to the task well enough and that form does ready very well. The subsequent form has seen 16 runs for 3 wins, highlighted by the last placed horse Communique beating Mirage Dancer at Newmarket next start.
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Glorious Stakes (2412m), August 2 2019, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He comfortably saw off Prince Of Arran, but in turn just gave the perfect drag up to an in form Desert Encounter and it was just a matter of pushing the button for that horse, who went straight past Mirage Dancer, but no disgrace running second to that high quality stayer. Subsequent form reads very well with Desert Encounter winning a Group l in Canada recently and Prince Of Arran running well in the Herbert Power.
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Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 19 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Gee I thought this was a sweet ride from Melham. He gave the horse every chance but was one of many that was a little unlucky. Held up a vital stage, got clear and worked to the line really well for third. Definite tick re Melbourne Cup.
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Final Summary: He’s with the Busuttin/Young team and from all reports has settled into Australian life nicely, which was confirmed with an excellent third in the Caulfield Cup. I prefer others though from a Melbourne Cup perspective, but he’ll run well.
Constantinople
Breeding: Galileo x One Moment In Time
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Nationality: Australian/British
Career Stats: 9: 2-4-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/2000m
Career Best Win: Gallinule, May 24 2019, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 2-3-1
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: They’ve forked out the coin. Now he needs to repay that faith and confidence.
Gordon Stakes (2400m), August 1 2019, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Talk about throwing a race away. Had this race won but as soon as pressure was applied, he wanted to wander all over the place, losing momentum while doing that, and in turn gave Nayef Road the win, who was doing everything right in front and proved too good. The subsequent form has seen 14 runs for 3 wins, the best of which being a Group ll win by the sixth place horse at Longchamp.
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Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m), August 21 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He comfortably beat the rest of the field, but was no match for Logician, who is the next big thing to come out of the UK and confirmed that in mid September when winning the St Leger. Running second to him is certainly nothing to be sneezed at, but again, he wanted to do a bit wrong when under pressure. Logician is a star, and won the St Leger next start, and the third place horse has won a Group lll at Leopardstown.
To view this replay click here.
Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 19 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
The less said the better yeah? Just a horrendous watch if you were on him. He was absolutely bolting but he couldn’t get clear air at any stage that Nolen wanted to and by the time he did, it was all over. Can safely say he just about wins had he got clear air at the right time. Brilliant Melbourne Cup trial.
To view this replay click here.
Final Summary: He has the A1 form, he’s got the engine under the hood to win whatever the stable wants to target, so you can see why they paid what they did. The problem is that he’s just doing too much wrong in the run and not savaging the line. Does he need to be gelded? Set of blinkers? Not sure, but he’s high up in the market for the Cup for a reason and he confirmed that in the Caulfield Cup. Extremely hard to beat.
Raymond Tusk
Breeding: High Chaparral x Dancing Shoes
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 12: 3-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/2400m
Career Best Win: Gran Premio, October 21 2018, San Siro, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 11: 3-3-1
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-0-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: If you’re a weights fan, he’ll struggle. But the form does make for good reading
Sagaro Stakes (3209m), May 1 2019, Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Thought this was a really good effort behind what many think could well be the heir apparent to Stradivarius in terms of the best stayer in the world, Dee Ex Bee. Tried his heart out after getting a good run just off the speed. Just lacked the class/brilliance of Dee Ex Bee. That stayer is second to Stradivarius, so the form is definitely a tick.
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Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 24 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
I think you can easily make a case that he should have gone close to winning. Just had no luck at all in the straight when seemingly bolting for a run and by the time he got out, those in front had all the momentum. Huge run from near last at one stage. The subsequent form has seen 12 runs for two wins, Withold winning a Listed race at Newmarket and Weekender winning a three horse handicap at Salisbury.
To view this replay click here.
Final Summary: From the Ebor, he will meet Desert Skyline and Red Galileo 1kg and 1.5kg worse off from the Ebor heading into the Melbourne Cup despite that pair beating him home, so if you’re a weights fan, you’d probably ignore him. But, with clear running, I think he goes close to winning that race. The form prior does read very well and he might be an early value play for the Melbourne Cup.
Raheen House
Breeding: Sea The Stars x Jumooh
Trainer: William Haggas
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 19: 3-5-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/2816m
Career Best Win: Bahrain Trophy, July 13 2017, Newmarket, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 2-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 6: 1-2-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Stamped him as a top ten chance…until the Ebor.
Silver Cup (2816m), July 13 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Found the A1 lane near the outside fence but just took forever to get going in a real slog to the line. Picked up very late and probably wins in another hop when a narrow third to Red Verdon. Form out of the race has been solid enough with a couple of winners.
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Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 24 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Prior to this race, Australian Bloodstock purchased a controlling share in the horse and on race day, he was heavily backed. Sat last in the run off a fast speed and for mine, he had his chance to win. Was there to win but didn’t find much over the concluding stages when down the track behind Mustajeer. The subsequent form has seen 12 runs for two wins, Withold winning a Listed race at Newmarket and Weekender winning a three horse handicap at Salisbury.
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Herbert Power (2400m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Just wanted to lay in all the way up the Caulfield straight under Jamie Spencer but it wouldn’t have changed the result. He was back in the run and never really a winning threat but once he did straighten up late, he was sound to the line.
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Final Summary: Remarkable that this horse is only one of a couple to have beaten world class mare Enable in a race. His overall form reads good, with runs alongside the likes of Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution, and a fourth behind Yucatan as a two year old. That Ebor run just worries me, and I don’t think that’s the Melbourne Cup form reference.
Haky
Breeding: Muhtathir x Marah Dubai
Trainer: John Hammond
Nationality: French
Career Stats: 16: 3-3-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/3000m
Career Best Win: Handicap, July 23 2019, Compiegne, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 9: 2-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 7: 1-3-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Progressive…is he up to a Melbourne Cup? I’d say no at this stage.
Kergorlay (3000m), August 18 2019, Deauville, Clockwise Direction, Heavy Surface
Well and truly thrown in the deep end here, taking on some big boys, and he measured up well enough I thought. led, copped pressure, which set it up for Marmelo, who was too classy, but Haky stuck on well for third and passed the first ballot clause for the Melbourne Cup.
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Gladiateur (3100m), September 8 2019, Longchamp, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
This was an important race for Haky because a win here would have pretty much assured him a start in the Melbourne Cup. He led at a decent enough clip, left alone and gave a good kick, but Called To The Bar had the sit on him and dashed too well over the concluding stages, but he held on well for second. Form yet to be really tested at this stage.
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Herbert Power (2400m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Linda Meech is a very good rider of front runners, but probably not the best of rides here on Haky. The stop/start tempo she set was just odd and it played into the hands of those around her, who had the better turn of foot, but to be fair, Haky was a beaten horse a fair way from home.
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Geelong Cup (2400m), October 23 2019, Geelong, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Meech went too slow on him in the Herbert Power but rode a much better race here. Let the import lead and roll at his own tempo and he showed good fight in the straight despite being well held and kicked on for third.
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Final Summary: Not 100% assure he gets a run, I think he would need to win a race like the Geelong Cup or Lexus. He’s a front runner who should be fine at a stayin trip…but you have to go back to 1997 and Might And Power to find the last horse to be on speed throughout and win a Melbourne Cup. The Herbert Power run suggests the stable are chasing their tail to get into the Melbourne Cup and he looks a tired horse.
Cape Of Good Hope
Breeding: Galileo x Hveger
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Nationality: Irish/Australian
Career Stats: 11: 2-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1499m/2027m
Career Best Win: Blue Riband Trial, April 24 2019, Epsom, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 2-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-0-0
Target Race(s): Mackinnon Stakes
Short Summary: Wouldn’t say he’s the worst
Blue Riband Stakes (2027m), April 24 2019, Epsom, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Pretty solid win from this half brother to Highland Reel and Idaho. Was near the speed throughout under Ryan Moore before being clicked up 400m out and he showed good ticker late when challenged to get the win. Subsequent form has seen the last horse win a couple of races, as well as others placing at Group level, so the form isn’t too bad.
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Saratoga Derby (1900m), August 4 2019, Saratoga, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
It was a really good ride from Julien Leparoux because A Thread Of Blue absolutely walked them in front, turning it into a 400m dash to the line. Leparoux saved significant ground by sticking towards the inside and the horse kept finding the line to run a very game third behind a quality up and coming stayer.
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Caulfield Stakes (2000m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
There are two schools of thought here after this win. Either the Australian WFA horses, as a whole, are rubbish, which I think is just about right. Or, is Cape Of Good Hope going to follow the same path as his older brother and be a future great? He still looks very raw and new, with development to come, but this was some win.
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Cox Plate (2040m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Looked to get into a really good spot early under Zahra before making a move down the side to get closer to those near the speed, but on the turn was just a spent force and paddled the last little bit in a disappointing effort.
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Final Summary: If you’re going on breeding, he is still another 12-18 months away from his best, as we saw with Highland Reel. On paper, the form doesn’t read flash, but a deeper look, and it’s not too bad. Found wanting in the Cox Plate but perhaps Flemington will suit him better.
Suzuka Devious
Breeding: King Kamehamea x Suzuka Laurent
Trainer: Mitsiru Hashida
Nationality: Japanese
Career Stats: 41: 6-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1800m/2200m
Career Best Win: Daishoten, May 6 2018, Niigata, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 38: 6-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-0-1
Target Race(s): Unknown
Short Summary: Always on guard with the Japanese…but happy to let him go through to the keeper
Daishoten (2000m), April 29 2019, Niigata, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
He is the horse in the green and gold silks nearer the inside in the second half of the field. Should have finished a bit closer, but was never really a winning threat. Winner of the race was Mer De Glace, ridden by Damian Lane, has won his next two outings and is one of the top fancies in betting for the Caulfield Cup.
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Hakodate Kinen (2000m), July 14 2019, Hakodate, Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
This was a brutally run 2000m contest and he was off the bit the entire trip in the green and gold silks. Didn’t come on at all, finishing last, but there was a bit of quality to the field and the form since has stood up okay.
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Caulfield Stakes (2000m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Was rated as no chance here given his overall form recently has been ordinary, but I thought he got a pass mark here. Was left flat footed when the sprint went on but he picked up and I didn’t mind the way he finished off his race.
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Final Summary: Good on them for making the trip over. But on current form, he’s going to struggle.
True Self
Breeding: Oscar x Good Thought
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 19: 8-5-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2012m/3255m
Career Best Win: Tipple Stakes, May 8 2019, Gowran Park, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 2-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 12: 6-3-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Dismiss Willie Mullins at your peril
Tipple Stakes (2816m), May 8 2019, Gowran Park, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Was a lovely ride by Colin Keane, tracking the speed most of the way before angling into clear air, finding the best ground, and the mare showed good change up speed to win comfortably, and with something in hand on the line. The concern is that the subsequent form has been awful.
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Ebor Handicap (2787m), August 24 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
She was brave in defeat. Had to cover additional ground without cover in what was a fast run race. Was there at the 300m mark but the work mid race just told on her late and she tired to run sixth, but was far from disgraced. The subsequent form has seen 12 runs for two wins, Withold winning a Listed race at Newmarket and Weekender winning a three horse handicap at Salisbury.
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Geelong Cup (2400m), October 23 2019, Geelong, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
A case of so close. A win would have just about assured her a start in the Melbourne Cup. She ran a beauty and was given a 12/10 steer by Johnny Allen. Just couldn’t get past the tough nut that is Prince Of Arran.
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Final Summary: Typical Willie Mullins horse. Starts out looking like a decent jumper, throw at the stumps on the flat and she has improved out of sight, and you could argue her run in the Ebor was the best in the race. I’m not sure the Ebor is the form reference to look for re Melbourne Cup, but if it was, she’d be high up on the list of horses from the race IMO. Unfortunately she’s unlikely to get a run.
Chief Ironside
Breeding: Lawman x Moment Of Time
Trainer: David Menuisier
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 15: 3-0-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2011m/2075m
Career Best Win: Handicap, June 29 2018, Newmarket, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 3-0-4
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-0-0
Target Race(s): Cantala Mile
Short Summary: Hit and miss, but at his best, he’ll be competitive
Strensall Stakes (1711m), August 25 2018, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Thought this was a lovely front running ride from Fran Berry, controlling things beautifully on speed and the horse gave a good kick, but just felt the pinch late. The two horses that beat him have since won Group l races over the mile in 2019, so it’s A1 form.
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Diomed (1713m), June 1 2019, Epsom, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
In four runs this year, this has clearly been his best effort. Attempted to lead all the way and gave a reasonable kick but the Epsom 1713m is very tough, feels like more a 2000m race and he just couldn’t see it out, tiring for third. The first two that beat him home have won again since, with Zaaki winning a Stakes race.
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Toorak Handicap (1600m), October 12 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Hard to get a real guide on this run because he didn’t get out at any stage in the Australian Bloodstock colours. Seemingly had something to offer but Anthony Darmanin just couldn’t get clear on him and it was pretty much a barrier trial for the import.
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Crystal Mile (1600m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Perfect ride from Jamie Spencer. Got the import into a dream spot just off the speed before getting clear air when Gailo Chop dropped away and just finished best in a blanket go, which is usually a bad sign re looking ahead, but there were too many good runs to ignore it.
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Final Summary: If you go through his form, purely in the form guide, you’d be dismissing him. But he needs things to go his way. He needs an economical run in transit and he needs dry ground. Any chance change of getting his feet wet and put a line through him. I think if he gets that right set up, he can be competitive and a win certainly wouldn’t surprise, as seen at Moonee Valley.
Mer De Glace
Breeding: Rulership x Glacier Blue
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu
Nationality: Japanese
Career Stats: 18: 8-2-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/2200m
Career Best Win: Kokura Kinen, August 4 2019, Kokura, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 17: 8-2-5
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-0-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Beware the Japanense horse with a picket fence next to his name
Daishoten (2000m), April 29 2019, Niigata, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
This was his first test at Group level and he passed with flying colours under a lovely ride from Damian Lane, who had him parked just off the speed before peeling wider and being patient before pushing the button and the horse kicked on strongly to get the win, his third on the bounce.
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Kokura Kinen (2000m), August 4 2019, Kokura, Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
Was a lovely steer from Kawada. Just parked him back in the run before getting the perfect drag up into the race and his turn of foot came to the fore when it was needed and he won. The little query I have is the second horse Cadenas should have won IMO. He ran second to Suzuka Devious earlier this year and that horse, for the most part, has been struggling, so hard to be jumping up and down about this as a form reference.
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Caulfield Cup (2400m), October 19 2019, Caulfield, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Gee this was a sweet steer from Lane. He had the Japanese out the back, put to sleep, waiting for those in front to go, which they did, and it just gave him the perfect drag up into the race, where his turn of foot came to the fore and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he was far too good.
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Final Summary: The stable have well and truly figured out that fresh is best for this guy. They’ve given him a minimum four weeks gap between runs in 2019 and he’s won all five of them. Is he a top class Japanese stayer? No. But does he need to be top class to win a Caulfield Cup? Well he proved not, and the turn of foot he has, the Melbourne Cup is well within reach.
Lys Gracieux
Breeding: Heart’s Cry x Liliside
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Nationality: Japanese
Career Stats: 21: 6-8-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2200m
Career Best Win: Takarazuka, June 23 2019, Hanshin, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 20: 6-7-4
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race(s): Unknown
Short Summary: Superstar
Hong Kong International Vase (2400m), December 9 2018, Sha Tin, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Have to show this race. This race just littered with class. Exultant is the best horse at 2000m+ in Hong Kong and the mare pushed him all the way down the Sha Tin straight. In behind was Latrobe, Prince Of Arran, and of course, recent Arc winner Waldgeist, so the form just reads so well from this race.
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Takarazuka (2200m), June 23 2019, Hanshin, Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
She made an absolute mess of them in this race under Damian Lane. Got across from the wide gate to land on speed and from there, it was a painless watch really, with Lane pushing the button and her turn of foot was there to see as she gapped her rivals and won very impressively.
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Cox Plate (2040m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Stunning..just stunning from Lys Gracieux in the Cox Plate. She was spotting them a decent start in the run and wanted to hang in when under pressure, but that change up speed she produced time and time again in Japan was on display late as she zoomed past Castelvecchio to record a top win
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Final Summary: She’s a high class animal this girl and confirmed that in the Cox Plate. If she heads to the Mackinnon, it’s no betting. She just wins. But job done I’d say for her this Spring. Star.
Kluger
Breeding: King Kamehameha x Addicted
Trainer: Tomokazu Takano
Nationality: Japanese
Career Stats: 23: 5-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1600m/2000m
Career Best Win: Milers Cup, April 24 2016, Kyoto, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 21: 5-4-2
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-0-1
Target Race(s): Unknown
Short Summary: All you need to say is Winx form
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), April 13 2019, Randwick, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
It was rare during the Winx streak that you thought “Hello, she’s got company”, but that’s what Kluger did here. He took that inside run and showed a really good turn of foot, matching strides with the great mare for a few strides, but in the end, class and brilliance was the difference, but he kept chasing and produced an outstanding performance in her farewell.
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Sapporo Kinen (2000m), August 18 2019, Sapporo, Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
First and only run since the Queen Elizabeth and the run was just fair. Sat behind the speed and looked to travel okay but never really fired a shot in the straight and just whacked away to run eighth, but those in front that ran 1-2-3 are high quality Japanese runners, so the form reads well, and he was rated as a $44 chance in betting, so he wasn’t expected to do much.
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Cox Plate (2040m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Got back and was following the right horses into the race, but when it came to the crunch, he couldn’t go with them and was very disappointing, with Tommy Berry being kind to him the last little bit.
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Final Summary: To be fair, he hadn’t done much prior to coming to Sydney for the Championships. He was the best run in the Doncaster then ran a mighty second to Winx. Unfortunately he was pretty ordinary in the Cox Plate and if he was to head to the Mackinnon, I’d be happy to just watch.
Master Of Reality
Breeding: Frankel x L’Ancresse
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 12: 3-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/2816m
Career Best Win: Vintage Crop, April 28 2019, Navan, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 1-1-0
Wet Track Stats: 7: 2-0-2
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Can Frankie complete his CV?
Gold Cup (4014m), June 20 2019, Royal Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Tough, tough, on speed effort in one of the best staying races in the world. Sat outside a world class stayer in Dee Ex Bee and had the better turn of foot when asked, but in turn, Stradivarius, the best stayer in the world, got off their back and pounced, with his class coming to the fore. Master Of Reality just tired late to run third, but it was a great run in defeat. Called To The Bar and Thomas Hobson have won since and Stradivarius has won three since. A1 form.
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Irish St Leger (2816m), September 15 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
On one hand, I think this form is suspect given the winner was ridden an absolute treat, making a midrace move to lead pretty much pinched it. But it’s lightly raced, and don’t really know how good it is. Was a somewhat weak finale by Master Of Reality after sitting on speed.
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Final Summary: Lloyd Williams and his sole purpose with racing is to win the Melbourne Cup and the fact he has Frankie Dettori booked for the ride tells me this horse is their #1 seed. The Stradivarius form is top shelf, make no mistake of that. Outside that, the form does look, overall, very suspect. Can you back a horse with one A1 form reference? Personally, I’m looking elsewhere to bet.
Latrobe
Breeding: Camelot x Question Times
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 15: 3-6-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2414m/2414m
Career Best Win: Irish Derby, June 30 2018, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 3-4-0
Wet Track Stats: 5: 0-2-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: The X factor for Team Williams
Ballyroan Stakes (2414m), August 8 2019, Leopardstown, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Good win on speed from this guy. Took the lead upon straightening and was there to be run down, but showed good ticker late to get the win. Subsequent form has seen nine runs for one win, the fourth placed horse winning a Group lll at Dundalk.
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Irish St Leger (2816m), September 15 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Not sure what to make of this run. You’d have to mark him down as disappointing I think because he had the right run in transit, tracking the speed, and looked to be going well, but as soon as it was time to go, he didn’t find much and just whacked away to run a well beaten sixth.
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Final Summary: Lloyd Williams has booked James McDonald for the ride. On his 2019 form, I couldn’t back him. But if he produced anything near what he showed in 2018, he’d be one of the hardest to beat. Again, I’m happy to just watch rather than back at this stage.
Twilight Payment
Breeding: Teofilo x Dream On Buddy
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 24: 5-9-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2414m/3218m
Career Best Win: Curragh Cup, June 28 2019, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 12: 3-5-1
Wet Track Stats: 12: 2-4-4
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: He’s an unknown, but Team Williams have forked out the coin for him for the big race
Curragh Cup (2800m), June 8 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
This race produced the 2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling and the 2019 edition of the Curragh Cup looks like it will have an influence on the 2019 Melbourne Cup with several runners potentially heading to Melbourne from this race, including Twilight Payment, who was outstanding in winning, leading throughout and fending off a very game Latrobe, with Southern France and Mustajeer in behind. The subsequent form has seen 13 runs for two wins, the two wins coming from Melbourne Cup aspirants Latrobe and Southern France.
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Irish St Leger (2816m), September 15 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Thought he was plain here in the first run for Joseph O’Brien. Was near the speed throughout and looked to be going but around 600m out, the pressure went on in front and he was one of the first to put the white flag up and paddled late to run seventh, beaten comfortably.
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Final Summary: Personally, I think he’ll be a pace maker for the likes of stablemates Latrobe and Master Of Reality. The Curragh Cup win was outstanding and it’s been a good Cup form reference recently. He’ll have no trouble with the two miles…does he have the speed in the legs to run out a fast enough 3200m and win?
Cross Counter
Breeding: Teofilo x Waitress
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 12: 6-2-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1710m/3219m
Career Best Win: Melbourne Cup, November 6 2018, Flemington, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 5-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Can he put his name into Melbourne Cup folklore forever by winning the race for the second time straight?
Gold Cup (4014m), June 20 2019, Royal Ascot, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Thought James Doyle rode a 12/10 race on the stayer here. He was there to win 400m out when presented out wide into clear air, but he couldn’t quite finish it off and win and instead had to settle for fourth to Stradivarius. Subsequent form has been outstanding, with several winners.
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Irish St Leger (2816m), September 15 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He stuck to the task well in defeat, but never really looked a winning threat. Jumped and led early before taking cover and it was then he got pulling, which is unusual for him, and that energy burn probably told late, but still a decent enough run.
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Final Summary: The nature of this race in recent years makes it very hard for winners to back up and repeat the dose. In fact, no horse has attempted to win back-to-back since Almandin in 2017, who was given an ordinary steer by Frankie Dettori. If you’re going off weights and recent form, I can’t see him maintaining a margin over Marmelo from last year. But…Charlie Appleby and Australia = an ATM for punters.
Southern France
Breeding: Galileo x Alta Anna
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Nationality: Irish/Australian
Career Stats: 14: 3-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/2816m
Career Best Win: Irish St leger Trial, August 16 2019, Curragh, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 11: 2-2-2
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-1-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Form around Stradivarius does read very well. Can he take the next step?
Irish St Leger Trial (2816m), August 16 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
I think you have to stand up and take notice of this win. He sat on speed throughout before putting Melbourne Cup aspirant Master Of Reality with ease, and really surged clear late for a dominant win. Subsequent form out of this race has been suspect though with no future winners from five runs.
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Irish St Leger (2816m), September 15 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Pretty good effort to run third. Was tucked in behind the speed throughout before being placed under pressure 600m from home. Made ground late nearer the inside to run third in a credible performance alongside some classy stayers.
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Final Summary: Did run fourth to Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup, which does read super, and go back to May, he pushed Stradivarius hard in the Yorkshire Cup, so he’s got the A1 form to win a Melbourne Cup. Recent form? Suspect. That’s the only knock I have with him. Overall, he’s a definite top five chance.
Ispolini
Breeding: Dubawi x Giants Play
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 11: 4-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2010m/2810m
Career Best Win: German St Leger, September 15 2019, Dortmund, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 4-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: He’s the one of the Charlie Appleby pair I want to be on.
Dubai Gold Cup (3200m), March 30 2019, Meydan, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He had won a couple of lead ups to this race in impressive fashion hence why he was hard in the market to beat Cross Counter, who was having his first run since the Melbourne Cup. The class of Cross Counter came to the fore late, but Ispolini was very good in defeat. The subsequent form has been good with Red Galileo and Gold Mount winning, plus Cross Counter and Prince Of Arran running well since.
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German St Leger (2800m), September 15 2019, Dortmund, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Dortmund is a tough, tough track, and that straight feels like an eternity, so the 2800m test of the St Leger would have felt like 3200m and he was very good in winning, though Doyle did his best to impersonate Luke Nolen on Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. Subsequent form has seen two runs for one placing at Group level.
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Final Summary: He meets Cross Counter 2.5kg better for their clash at Meydan, and IMO, Ispolini is going better than Cross Counter, so of the Appleby pair, I’d prefer Ispolini. Two miles will be no issue, handles all conditions, in the right stable…he’s a serious contender.
Never No More
Breeding: No Nay Never x Law Of The Jungle
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 7: 3-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1006m/1408m
Career Best Win: 2000 Guineas Trial, April 6 2019, Leopardstown, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 2-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Target Race(s): Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Talented animal…not sure he’s good enough to beat the top shelf 4YO stock in Australia.
Secretariat (1609m), August 10 2019, Arlington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
He looked to have every chance. Tucked in behind what looked a moderate speed and when the sprint went on, he was flat footed and couldn’t go with them late, whacking away to run a well held fifth. Valid Point is a leading contender for the upcoming Breeders Cup meeting, so the form isn’t too bad.
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Group Park Stakes (1406m), September 14 2019, Doncaster, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Was placed under pressure a fair way out when the sprint went on, but he kept on to run second, albeit well held by impressive winner Sir Dancealot, who has since failed at Group l level in the Longchamp.
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Final Summary: He’s a nice horse, has talent…but up against a horse like Arcadia Queen…I think he’ll struggle unless he grows a leg getting some Australian sun on his back.
Beat Le Bon
Breeding: Wootton Bassett x Frida La Blondie
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Nationality: British
Career Stats: 11: 4-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1200m/1600m
Career Best Win: Handicap, August 2 2019, Goodwood, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 4-2-0
Wet Track Stats: 3: 0-1-1
Target Race(s): Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Handy animal, but not sure he’s capable of reaching the level required to win a Golden Eagle
Handicap (1600m), August 2 2019, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
He didn’t beat much, but I liked the turn of foot he showed when asked for the big effort by Pat Dobbs and that turn the foot was the difference between winning and losing in a pretty impressive performance in reasonable time. 47 subsequent runs in behind for four wins, but no blacktype wins. Just handicaps.
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Celebration Mile (1600m), August 24 2019, Goodwood, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
This was a real sit/sprint affair, as you can tell by the overall time. The moderate tempo didn’t suit Beat Le Bon at all but he was good in defeat, and bear in mind was well respected in the race given he started $5. Three subsequent runs for one placing at Listed level in Sandown.
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Final Summary: Nice horse and won’t disgrace himself. Just can’t see him winning.
I Am Superman
Breeding: Footstepsinthesand x Fastent Lady
Trainer: Michael O’Callaghan
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 10: 3-1-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1609m
Career Best Win: Handicap, April 29 2019, Naas, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 1-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 5: 2-1-0
Target Race(s): Golden Eagle
Short Summary: On form, he’s clearly #1 seed of the internationals.
Handicap (1609m), April 29 2019, Naas, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
This has been his career best performance to date. Was keen early before taking the front and controlling things. Then clicked up and gee he showed a good turn of foot to put them away and gap them by a space. There has been six winners to come out of this race.
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Desmond Stakes (1609m), August 15 2019, Leopardstown, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Got a good run in transit and was presented at the right time, and again that turn of foot from the replay above was there for all to see. Just couldn’t sustain it and tired to run third behind a couple of handy gallopers.
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Final Summary: He’s the best hope of the overseas brigade. His best chance of running a positive race will be drawing an inside gate. He can use that, go to sleep on the fence and show that turn of foot of his. He’d a top five chance if that eventuates.
Antilles
Breeding: War Front x Wonder Of Wonders
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 11: 1-1-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1408m
Career Best Win: 2YO Handicap, November 4 2018, Naas, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 0-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Target Race(s): Rosehill Gold Cup
Short Summary: Not hopeless in a Rosehill Gold Cup.
Gallinule (2012m), May 24 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Was well held, but well held by a quality animal in Constantinople. Was under pressure a fair way out and never really looked like winning, but stayed on and was quite good in defeat behind a couple of quality animals.
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Diamond Stakes (2149m), September 27 2019, Dundalk, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Synthetic Surface
Very one paced when the sprint went on but once the revs were built, he finished off very strongly to run a close up third behind two okay gallopers, nothing special and not Group l class. The fourth placed horse has run second since and is the lone subsequent form.
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Final Summary: It’s clear from the replays he has got no turn of foot, but will stay all day. If he’s to win, I reckon he will want a strongly run 2000m contest. If it becomes a sit/sprint, then he’s no chance.
Magic Wand
Breeding: Galileo x Prudenzia
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 19: 2-7-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2281m/2405m
Career Best Win: Ribblesdale Stakes, June 21 2018, Ascot, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 2-5-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 0-2-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Good horse, but very good at being a bridesmaid.
Arton Million (2000m), August 10 2019, Arlington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
Wayne Lordan gave the mare an absolute peach of a steer off the speed. Got the gap at the right time and on the turn looked the winner. Just lacked the turn of foot of Bricks And Mortar, who is a star and arguably the best horse in America, so this form is A1.
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Irish Champion Stakes (2012m), September 14 2019, Leopardstown, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Another very game run. Had the suck run behind stablemate and gun mare Magical, who was outside the leader and another stablemate, Hunting Horn. Magical put pay to him quickly and her turn of foot was far superior to Magic Wand, who stayed on but never really threatened, but still ran a very credible second and of course Magical franked that form in the British Champion Stakes.
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Cox Plate (2040m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Thought she was very brave on speed. Was a beaten horse on the turn but just kept finding and fought off a few but the hard run just told late as she couldn’t quite hang on to third.
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Final Summary: I didn’t think she had the change up speed required to win a Cox Plate unless it’s a strong tempo and it comes down to survival of the fittest, but she got a pass mark for sure. I think the Melbourne Cup is her go and her recent runs have been that of a horse wanting more ground.
Downdraft
Breeding: Camelot x Cinnamon Rose
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 17: 6-2-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/2816m
Career Best Win: Lenebane Stakes, July 8 2019, Roscommon, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 13: 5-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-1-0
Target Race(s): Moonee Valley Gold Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: One of a few internationals that has real X Factor.
Her Majesty’s Plate (2816m), July 26 2019, Down Royal, Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Really good change up speed when asked for the effort by Donnacha O’Brien and under hands and heels, this five year old dashed right away from his rivals. Did he beat much? given there’s been 11 subsequent runs in behind for 0 wins, I’m saying no, but to the eye, he was sharp.
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Irish St Leger Trial (2816m), August 16 2019, Curragh, Clockwise Direction, Soft Surface
Big step up in depth here and I thought his run had merit. He chased Southern France all the way down the straight and got close, but in the end, class came to the fore with the winner and he was edging clear late. Subsequent form out of this race has been suspect though with no future winners from six runs.
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Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
The only way this horse was going to win is if John Allen made it a staying contest from around the 600m mark and that’s what he did, taking the front, but was no match late for Hunting Horn and Mr Quickie.
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Final Summary: He ran well in the Moonee Valley Cup. I don’t think two miles will be an issue for him. The issue will be does he have the class, because he has been very well placed in recent runs, in what have been weak races.
Hunting Horn
Breeding: Camelot x Mora Bai
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 22: 3-2-5
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2004m/2011m
Career Best Win: Hampton Court, June 21 2018, Ascot, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 14: 2-1-3
Wet Track Stats: 8: 1-1-2
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Couldn’t have him on recent overseas form.
Arton Million (2000m), August 10 2019, Arlington, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Firm Surface
Off the back of a fifth, a well held fifth, to Enable the start prior, he was respected somewhat in the market here but was a beaten horse on the turn despite a relatively soft run outside the speed in a rather disappointing effort, but the winner is arguably the best horse in America.
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Irish Champion Stakes (2012m), September 14 2019, Leopardstown, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Was used as somewhat of a pacemaker for the O’Brien stable and was a beaten horse 400m out as Magical put pay to him quickly and he put up the white flag without a great deal of fight, which is concerning.
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Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m), October 26 2019, Moonee Valley, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
What to make of this win. He was a pacemaker in the UK but he took a sit here and was very strong the line. On the flip side, Mr Quickie probably isn’t a 2400m+ horse and was tiring late, so was the widening margin flattered somewhat? Only time will tell.
To view this replay click here.
Final Summary: He won the Moonee Valley Cup, and won well, but it would be an amazing overall form reversal if he was to figure in the Melbourne Cup. Happy to look elsewhere.
Il Paradiso
Breeding: Galileo x Famous
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Nationality: Irish
Career Stats: 8: 2-2-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2400m/3200m
Career Best Win: Handicap, July 21 2019, Curragh, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 1-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-1-1
Target Race(s): Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: I’m very wary of him.
Lonsdale Cup (3250m), August 23 2019, York, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
What a mighty effort this was. A three year old taking on two world class stayers, including the best in the world in Stradivarius. Gave Dee Ex Bee a massive score and the bob of the head was the only difference between him and finishing second. Massive run after being made to chase a fair way out.
To view this replay click here.
St Leger (2922m), September 14 2019, Doncaster, Anti-Clockwise Direction, Good Surface
Proper race this. Logician is a star in the UK so the form is A1. Il Paradiso had to chase down the stablemate and pacemaker and was forced to go early on once again. He stayed on really well but just couldn’t see it out and had to settle for a very game fifth.
To view this replay click here.
Final Summary: In terms of a proper stayer, I think this is the #1 seed of the Aidan O’Brien contingent, and his recent form is just top shelf. He doesn’t have a turn of foot, but he can put himself on speed and he’ll have no trouble with 3200m. He’s a definite winning chance. I’d also mention to not really take too much into the 12L win at Curragh over 3200m because he beat camels and the form has been ordinary out of it.
