11/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newmarket, July Cup day

The July Festival at Newmarket concludes on Saturday night with a bumper eight race meeting, highlighted of course by the Group l July Cup (1200m).

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2 Yuri Gagarin (Bet Now: $2.25) gets the nod for me in the opener. John Gosden trains this four year old, who is 2/2 to start his career, both on All Weather tracks. Debuted with a win at Newcastle before being spelled, resuming at Kempton Park and was impressive. If he can translate that to the turf, he’s clearly the one to beat because he is running good figures.

4 Future Investment (Bet Now: $3.75) is a son of Mount Nelson that comes here second up after resuming over 2400m at Newbury. He was tucked in behind the speed and got the split early enough to cause troubles. Just flattened out and couldn’t quite finish it off but stayed on for second. Lone second up run saw him win and stable is having a good run at the moment.

I think 1 Medal Winner (Bet Now: $8.00) will be better suited on firmer footing so a Soft track here at the time of writing does leave me with a doubt on the strength of his winning chances but I thought he was solid enough in defeat last time out at Royal Ascot behind Scarlet Dragon. That form does read quite well for this.

Breeding/yard/market are the three main factors here with this race with all bar one on debut. On breeding, 5 Nash Nasha (Bet Now: $2.75) is the pony. By Dubawi out of 1000 Guineas winner Just The Judge, who cost 1,000,000 pounds as a yearling, and with her breeding, can understand the price tag. Bit to play out here, but she’s on top.

6 Wedding Dance (Bet Now: $3.00) is the one with race experience. Debuted over 1200m at Newmarket where she was very ordinary to begin with and had to use up a stack of petrol to get near the pack. Was there to win 200m out but her condition gave out, tiring to beat one home in a field of five. Buick gets first pick and chooses her, so that might be a lead.

2 Danilova (Bet Now: $7.00) is a stablemate of Nash Nasha that is also on debut. This girl is related to a couple of smart animals and looks to be a pedigree that will excel around this distance range, so I think watch the market with her and see what it does. Lot of guessing involved here, so the market will be the main guide.

Another race full of guessing with a stack of gallopers having not much race experience and/or on debut. In saying that, I was impressed by the debut win of 2 Al Mutathar (Bet Now: $3.25) for Richard Hannon. Was unwanted in betting when debuting over the mile here where he was very raw and new, with a weird racing action, but he’s got an engine under the hood for sure the way he put them away. He’ll take good improvement off that and Crowley jumps on.

11 Declaring Love (Bet Now: $4.20) is an interesting runner here. Charlie Appleby trained filly that holds a nomination for the Irish Oaks, so is that a guide as to how highly they rate her. Hasn’t raced since her debut back in May last year when a strong third over 1200m here. Buick rides and with decent races in mind for her, she has to be respected.

12 Helvezia (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Holy Roman Emperor who should be suited in a strongly run mile race. Don’t think the slow tempo was to his liking on debut at Chepstow but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Campari, who should have won at Sandown last week, so the form reads very well and is a knockout chance at odds.

On top is 7 Eastern World (Bet Now: $4.20) for Charlie Appleby. They thought highly enough of this guy to nominate him for the Derby. That’s a reason why he was odds on when resuming here, but bumped into a good one, King Leonidas. Then raced again here over the mile, got his kill and his confidence up with a commanding win. He’s got more to come and can take this out.

3 Finest Sound (Bet Now: $2.80) looks the hardest to beat. Team Crsiford trains this three year old, who has really turned the corner since being gelded. Won like a good horse fresh at Haydock before going to the Royal Britannia at Royal Ascot and running a game second to Khaloosy. Just has to hold his form to go close to winning.

11 Impatient (Bet Now: $21.00) can run a good race here at odds. Resumed on the Kempton Park All Weather track where he pulled clear with Desert Force and kept on, but that Godolphin horse just got the better of him on the line. Gap to third I like and should get a lovely run just off the speed from gate one. Hard to beat here.

Not the strongest of races here. Going the way of 11 Indie Angel (Bet Now: $3.25) for John Gosden. She’s the one with the upside/progression. Resumed with a third on the Chelmsford All Weather before going to Doncaster where she had blinkers applied and was very good when a narrow second. Has more to come and think she can take this out.

8 Fantail (Bet Now: $3.75) is another with some upside to come. Team Crisford trains this daughter of Zoffany. Both career outings have come on the Chelmsford All Weather with a spell in between win. Debuted with a win, resumed on June 8 and worked to the line pretty well behind Angel Power. De Sousa on I like and is a key chance.

7 Rosadora (Bet Now: $9.50) is an interesting runner. Daughter of Camacho that resumes, having not raced since September 28 at Newmarket when down the track behind Huboor. Form around her doesn’t read too bad for this, but fresh off a nine month break, just want to see what the market does, but stable is going well.

Going with 8 Seventh Kingdom (Bet Now: $4.75) but just wary of taking potentially short odds, so I think wait til close to race time and see how the track plays. I think he got things to suit on debut at Doncaster, sitting off the speed before finding the outside fence, but that aside, he was really sharp in putting them away late and looking pretty good. Think he’ll measure up, but $5/thereabouts is short enough.

5 Master Of The Seas (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Dubawi colt for Charlie Appleby that debuted with win over 1400m here. Tagged the leader most of the way before peeling off its back and they had a good battle for 400m, with this guy just getting the better of it late. Buick takes over the riding now and he’s got that hard 1400m run under the belt.

10 Ventura Tormenta (Bet Now: $13.00) was very good I thought in defeat on debut in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot before getting her kill at Yarmouth when expected to win and indeed doing that. Rises back up in class, and up in trip, but I think she showed in the Norfolk she’s capable of running a cheeky race at this level.

Very tricky edition of the July Cup. I just hope the track isn’t too wet for 4 Khaadem (Bet Now: $12.00). Was on him in the Diamond Jubilee where he was first up and he was there to win, but I think his condition just gave out when fourth to Hello Youmzain. He’ll come on from that, parks off the speed…just want this track to dry out.

3 Hello Youmzain (Bet Now: $4.75) has to be respected after what he did in winning the Diamond Jubilee. He was there to be run down and for a few strides looked like it would happen but he showed good ticker when it counted and too good for them, just. He loves wet ground so if this track remains in the soft range, he’s the one to beat.

Can 2 Equilateral (Bet Now: $26.00) stretch his brilliance out to 1200m. If this was 1000m, he’d be nearly on top. Resumed in the King’s Stand and stuck to his task very well, but was clearly no match for his superstar stablemate Battaash. He is much more effective at 1000m, but off that resumption, I think 1200m can be done here with him.

Think Shadwell will win the race. Back both for a win and I think you’ll make a profit. Off the Royal Ascot run, admittedly, he found the better ground, but even with that, 4 Motakhayyel (Bet Now: $7.00) was impressive. Was first up since in just under 12 months and I just loved the way he was trucking in the run and from the 600m onwards, he was the only horse you wanted shares in. Jim Crowly rode him there and sticks here.

7 Mutamaasik (Bet Now: $4.75) has to be respected. He ran third in the race mentioned above and yes, was comfortably held to the eye, but he was in the centre of the track, nearer the inside, and at that stage of the Carnival, that wasn’t the best ground. Bolted up in his lone second up performance and does look the main threat.

Good test here for 15 Arigato (Bet Now: $9.50) but this gelding is flying at the moment, winning two on the bounce. Beat four rivals by nearly ten lengths two back before taking on harder opposition and the margin wasn’t as big, but he was still impressive in winning again. Harder here for him, but I think he can measure up.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Motakhayyel

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Eastern World

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Khaadem

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