The International Meeting at Sha Tin this Sunday is regarded as the turf world championships of horse racing and that reputation is indeed the case for 2016 with world class fields assembled for the four major races, the Hong Kong Vase (2400m), Sprint (1200m), Mile (1600m) and Cup (2000m), with the highlight being the clash of Japanese superstars A Shin Hikari and Maurice in the Cup.
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Race One (15:25) : Star Witness Handicap (Class 3) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Jing Jing Win (Bet Now: $1.35) for me here in the opener. He resumed on October 23 over 1200m here where he had a nice sit just off the tempo before Parton eased him to clear running and gee he showed a lovely turn of foot to put the field away quite comfortably. Looks to be good depth to this event but gee he looks promising.
Big Danger: 12 House Of Fun (Bet Now: $5.00) is a consistent sprinter for John Size and Joao Moreira who really appreciated the drop back to 1200m here four weeks back, settling near the speed before Moreira got him clear air and pushed the button at the right time for a decisive victory. Meets a couple of quality types here, but he has the tough race experience on his side and Moreira sticks.
Long Shot: 8 Victory Machine (Bet Now: $17.00) was pretty solid here on debut when closing off okay for fourth before going to Happy Valley where he didn’t quite appear to handle the tight turns that track dishes up. I think he will be much better suited back on the bigger track and though drawn wide, he gets the services of Hugh Bowman.
Race Two (15:55) : Fantastic Light Handicap (Class 3) 1800m:
Back Me: 12 Willie Way (Bet Now: $3.40) has really turned the corner this time in, winning two on the bounce, the latest coming at this track/distance three weeks ago where he sat back off a fast tempo and Purton came with a well timed run to win in the final couple of strides. Not sure there will be as much pressure on speed here, so hopefully he takes advantage of gate two.
Big Danger: 11 Allcash (Bet Now: $9.00) finished off well two back at Happy Valley over 1800m, making up nice ground, before coming to the 2000m here where he had a nice sit before angling wide and hitting the front 150m out, only to be beaten near the peg. Back to 1800m will really suit and De Sousa steers.
Long Shot: 10 Unique Harvest (Bet Now: $101.00) was a super winner at this track/distance three back before a couple of below par efforts, including finishing down the track in the Happy Valley race Allcash contested. I’ve got him in the numbers here because I think he maps quite well and I don’t think he will have to work hard to lead. If he can get a cheap sectional, he will take some running down.
Race Three (16:30) : Jim And Tonic Handicap (Class 3) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Winner’s Way (Bet Now: $7.00) is a horse I am pretty keen on here. He ran over this track/distance three weeks back where he settled back in the ruck and got badly held up on the turn when appearing to have plenty to offer but when he did get clear, he really savaged the line to run second to the above average Volitation. Draws to get the run of the race and this race doesn’t appear to have as much quality. Keen.
Big Danger: 11 Beat The Clock (Bet Now: $1.95) is a Hinchinbrook gelding that was so impressive on debut here at the track/distance, bolting up by three and running sharp time before racing again at the track/distance and trying hard but was simply no match for People’s Knight. Can’t see much pressure inside, so I think Moreira can push the issue and get over without doing much work. If that is the case, he’ll take some beating.
Long Shot: 5 Booming Delight (Bet Now: $9.00) is a former European making his Hong Kong debut for John Moore with an eye towards the Derby. He performed well at Royal Ascot when starting favourite and was far from disgraced. I’m sure whatever he does here he will improve on, but he has been tuned up for his debut with a couple of trials, both of which in fast time, so he has had a good grounding.
Race Four (17:00) : Longines Hong Kong Vase 2400m:
Back Me: Going with 3 Big Orange (Bet Now: $8.00). He probably didn’t set the world on fire in two runs during the Melbourne Spring, but in saying that, he was far from disgraced on each occasion, starting off with a 10th in a brutally run Melbourne Cup (3200m) before running a game third in the Zipping Classic (2400m) behind Beautiful Romance. I think he is probably the best stayer in the race, and he will get the lead comfortably to my eye, and that is how this horse races best, when he is allowed to control the tempo, and that is a definite advantage at Sha Tin.
Big Danger: 1 Highland Reel (Bet Now: $1.60), for a period of time, was vastly underrated on the international stage but after his spank job of his rivals in the Breeders Cup Turf (2400m) showed the racing world that he is one of the best in the business. He won this race last year and in that Breeders Cup win, he smashed the 2014 Vase winner Flintshire, so he really ticks all the boxes and is a deserved favourite.
Long Shot: He might be outclassed, but for wider exotics, I’ll be chucking in the kiwi raider 10 Benzini (Bet Now: $31.00). He performed pretty well during the Winter and the form around him during the Brisbane Carnival held up strongly in the Metropolitan and to an extent, the Caulfield Cup. Last start at Ellerslie was over the mile and he finished his race off okay from the back in a slowly run race. 2400m here is ideal, he’ll appreciate a fast tempo and he will be strong late. Doubt he can win, but exotics and perhaps a place bet are in order.
Race Five (17:40) : Longines Hong Kong International Sprint 1200m:
Back Me: It’s been 15 years since an Australian horse has saluted on International Day but I think that could well change courtesy of 12 Takedown (Bet Now: $7.00). I think even Gary Moore would agree when I say he isn’t the most naturally gifted horse going around in the race. But what he lacks in brilliance, he makes up for in spades of courage and toughness, as we saw when he won the Winterbottom (1200m) at Ascot, sitting outside the speed and fighting like a tiger to wear down Sheidel. I don’t think he’ll have to do too much work to sit on the speed here and from all reports, he has handled the trip over beautifully. I am happy to be in his corner because I am just not sure how well the local runner are going.
Big Danger: The Japanese look set to dominate the meeting in the features and I think 6 Big Arthur (Bet Now: $4.80) is a great chance of being one of those that will be prominent. He comes through the Sprinters Stakes (1200m) and if you backed him, it was just an absolute nightmare to watch and really, had he got clear at the right time, he would have bolted in. Pre-post markets had him second pick in betting at around the $5 mark, but I think he should clearly be favourite. High class animal who will take some beating.
Long Shot: Not sure he can win, but I think 7 Rebel Dane (Bet Now: $17.00) is a silly price. He had been quite consistent during the Winter/Spring, which ended with a super win in the Manikato (1200m), aided by a brilliant steer from Ben Melham. Keep in mind he beat Chautauqua and Buffering in that race, both of which have been international Group l winners in 2016, which is a big tick here and his trial at Rosehill before jetting off was very good to the eye.
Race Six (18:15) : Flying Dance Handicap (Class 1) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Mr Bogart (Bet Now: $3.50) brought about the downfall of Pakistan Star two back before racing at this track/distance four weeks back where he had a charmed run just off the speed before Purton eased him to the outside where he dashed to the front and gave a really good kick but was no match late for the above average Racing Supernova. He does get a 2kg weight swing on that horse here, so I think he can turn the tables and is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 6 Blizzard (Bet Now: $5.00) was really good in defeat when finishing third in that Racing Supernova race given he was wide most of the way and he seemed to pull hard at various stages, so he really had no right to still be there at the finish but he kept finding. Again draws tricky, but Moreira steers and he does get a 3.5kg weight pull on the winner.
Long Shot: 10 Key Witness (Bet Now: $12.00) is a bit of a risk at 1400m, but he goes in based on how well he is racing at the moment. He ran over 1200m here three weeks back where he was huge, sitting three and four wide no cover for the trip yet looked to travel sweetly in transit, hitting the lead 200m out before that hard run just told late and he was grabbed near the line. Draws much better here and tumbles in weight, so I think if he is going to run 1400m, he gets his chance here.
Race Seven (18:50) : Longines Hong Kong Mile 1600m:
Back Me: Pretty keen here on 1 Able Friend (Bet Now: $5.00). He resumed off a decent layoff in the Jockey Club Sprint (1200m) where he had a soft trip nearer the inside and gee he looked to travel well in the run under Tommy Berry. When he presented, he looked as if he was going to be a real threat but he just died on the run late. He’ll love the rise to the mile, getting fitter, and he is an absolute champion. His pre-post price of $6 looked outstanding shopping.
Big Danger: 5 Beauty Only (Bet Now: $8.00) won the Jockey Club Mile (1600m), the key lead up to this event. He sat off them in the run and for the most part, he never really looked like picking them up but once he balanced up and lengthened over the final 200m, he savaged the peg to grab victory in the last couple of strides. Looks to have some upside left and I doubt anything from that race will turn the tables on him here.
Long Shot: A horse to keep an eye on from the Jockey Club Mile (1600m) is 2 Contentment (Bet Now: $13.00). He probably isn’t the horse he was from last season and prior, but there was merit in his last start effort because he was ridden up on the speed, which probably isn’t his go, and was off the bit before the turn. Looked gone, but he fought on strongly and was only beaten a length by three horses who had the sit behind him. I think with a more conservative ride, he will be more effective and is the clear value in the race for me.
Race Eight (19:30) : Longines Hong Kong Cup 2000m:
Back Me: The pre-post money was strong for 2 Maurice (Bet Now: $1.90) and I am not surprised it did because he just has lengths on these if he turns up fit and healthy, and based on what I’ve seen in trackwork via the HKJC website, he has settled into Hong Kong beautifully. His Tenno Sho (2000m) win was dominant even though I think Ryan Moore pushed the button a stride or two early. He is a world class animal who should stamp himself as one of the worlds best with a dominant win here. Keen.
Big Danger: 1 A Shin Hikari (Bet Now: $4.50) scored a breathtaking win in this race last year, leading at a hectic gallop from the start and giving nothing else a look in. The win two back at Chantilly was that of a high class horse before he attempted to lead all the way in the Tenno Sho and he was a beaten horse at the top of the straight. The old saying is that you can forgive a good horse for one poor run. If you can, he is right in the game.
Long Shot: Forgiving a good horse for a poor run should also be applied to 3 Designs On Rome (Bet Now: $9.00), who finished near the back in the lead up, the Jockey Club Cup (2000m), but as I said, forgive and forget he went around, because there was a bit of rain about that day and he is a horse who isn’t effective on a track with give in it, and the pace of the race was very slow, and considering he was last in the run, he had no hope. He’ll get a genuine tempo here via A Shin Hikari and is capable of a sharp bounce back.
Race Nine (20:10) : Lord Kanaloa Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Mr Stunning (Bet Now: $1.95) looks one of the better bets for the afternoon/evening. He resumed over this track/distance three weeks back and gee if you backed him, I apologise for bringing up the nightmare again, because he should have bolted in but just had no luck in the straight when running fourth to Line Seeker. He meets that horse 1.5kg better at the weights here, so he’ll turn the tables and he is drawn out, so he’ll get clear running here.
Big Danger: 2 New Asia Sunrise (Bet Now: $7.50) is another that had no luck in the Line Seeker race. He also was badly held up at various stages in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer, and when he did get clear, he savaged the line to run a close up third. Might have to do a bit of work from the sticky gate, but Prebble jumps back on this horse and when this horse was winning constantly last time in, Prebble was steering.
Long Shot: 6 Merion (Bet Now: $17.00) on ability is probably one of the best in the race, but he is just an absolute fruit loop upstairs. He comes back to 1200m after racing over the mile three weeks back where nothing went right for him, sitting wide no cover out the back and was forced near the plush toy stand on the turn. Forgive and forget. If he can get cover here and a drag into the event, he can threaten.
Race Ten (20:50) : Eishin Preston Handicap (Class 2) 1600m:
Back Me: I think 13 Western Express (Bet Now: $4.60) is the best of the entire program and I’m very tempted to stand him out in the quaddie. There was just so much arrogance about his debut win here where Moreira had him just off the tempo and once he angled him clear, despite taking a couple of strides, gee he lengthened out like a potential Group l horse. If he can slot in and get cover, game over.
Big Danger: 5 Pakistan Star (Bet Now: $1.75) is the obvious threat. He is the hype for Hong Kong given his incredible racing pattern and the freak sectionals he can produce. But that racing pattern has brought him undone recently where he has just got too far back. That needs to change if he is going to be a Group l horse but I still think he is a massive chance here.
Long Shot: The query runner is obviously 2 Eagle Way (Bet Now: $13.00). Queensland Derby runner who is now with John Moore in pursuit of the Hong Kong Derby and Bowman steers. From all reports and from what I’ve seen, his trials/trackwork has been sharp enough to suggest he can go well here first up, and we know he has the class and booming finish to feature prominently.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Maurice
NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 13 Western Express
VALUE: Race Four Number 3 Big Orange
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 13
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9
Leg Four: 5, 13
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