Hong Kong form analyst Xavier Blair previews tomorrows Happy Valley race meet.
Race 1 – SHEUNG SHUI HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1000m
Rating 60-40
Our Pegasus (4) has had five starts in Hong Kong for four dismal efforts but his latest here at Happy Valley over 1000m was excellent where he covered ground on the speed and battled on really well to finish a close up fourth. He looks to be finding some form and has drawn ideally here. Withallmyheart (10) deserves another win as he has been racing very consistently at this level in recent times. Coming off consecutive placings behind High Return and Destiny’s Child, he looks well placed here to make it six career wins from a good gate. Mighty Feeling (11) may be a touch of odds in this event and his run here two back behind Secret Of Winning should be forgiven as he sat four wide without any cover. He should position nicely from gate four and can place at nice odds. Thunder Flash (2) is always thereabouts at this level and enjoys racing here over 1000m. I have a feeling he will be unders but if he gets to a silly price then it would be smart to step in as he really shouldn’t miss a placing.
Selections:
4-10-11-2
Race 2 – YUEN LONG HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1650m
Rating 60-40
I like one at odds here with the David Ferraris trained Fantastisch (10) being the unlucky runner last start behind Absolute Hedge where he was blocked for a run on numerous times down the straight. He wasn’t far away at his previous starts but he looks to be coming along well and can win at odds. Classa Supreme (12) could lead them a merry dance from the top tonight as he gets in with just 105 pounds for apprentice jockey T H So. From a good gate he will find the top without trouble and is a great each way prospect. Precision Magic (5) has been trapped wide in most of his recent runs but has still finished the race off well to be close up behind the winner. Prebble jumps on as he steps out onto Happy Valley for the first time. Form through A Walk In The Park, Happy Seven and National Treasure reads exceptionally well. Win A Dozen (6) is drawn to get the gun run and the key engagement of Beadman for trainer Manfred Man is a killer combination. Don’t sell him short.
Selections:
10-12-5-6
Race 3 – TAI PO HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1200m
Rating 60-40
Big Kahuna (8) only has the two wins to his name but his second win came earlier this season over this track and distance where he defeated Fast Go after box seating. He is drawn to obtain an identical run tonight and will take some holding out. Morning Green (3) has been very disappointing after showing promise late last year where he has failed to finish off his races. He has started favourite in all of his four starts but gets some key gear changes tonight with the blinkers going on to sharpen him up. Just Chill (4) is a reliable each way fancy that just couldn’t pick up Destiny’s Child last start where he received every chance. I don’t think he can win but certainly won’t be far away. Solar Up (11) gets Douglas Whyte and has been consistent on the All Weather Track recently.
Selections:
8-3-4-11
Race 4 – TSUEN WAN HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1650m
Rating 60-40
Very wide open race with many winning chances but I’ve settled on Implied Volatility (9) who was a touch unlucky two runs back behind Record High and does meet that fellow on better terms for his length and three-quarter defeat. Forget his latest run at Sha Tin when trapped wide and he should go close here tonight. Chater De Lago (1) likes to rattle home down the middle of the track and has won four times here doing so. Zac Purton should take him back from a wide gate and he will be the strongest at the finish. Record High (4) won well last start over the mile and can certainly win again although he meets Implied Volatility (9) slightly worse off. Spicy Fruity (12) will ensure a good tempo and did win well at Sha Tin recently defeating High Note where he led and kicked strongly.
Selections:
9-1-4-12
Race 5 – SAI KUNG HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1200m
Rating 80-60
Magic Sweep (4) has run into the flying Loyal Army at his past two and that fellow isn’t in this event tonight and he looks a good hope in the first leg of the Quaddie. Excellent stats over these conditions and Prebble sticks with him make him a solid each way fancy. Happy Reunion (6) is becoming costly for punters, being beaten favourite at his past few. He could be unders again but he looks capable of winning from a good draw although I wouldn’t take anything overly short about him. Bondi Lad (11) has opened up ridiculous odds in the early markets and is definitely not a 33-1 chance. He was pressured in the lead last start and was only beaten just over a length at the finish. From a wide gate he has no choice but to go forward but may get an uncontested lead. Winner Smart (10) makes his course debut and has Douglas Whyte on top. All of his recent form has been on the All Weather track and he gets no favours from a wide gate but it wouldn’t completely shocked if he ran on into a placing.
Selections:
4-6-11-10
Race 6 – KWAI CHUNG HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1200m
Rating 80-60
Loyal Army (4) is absolutely flying at the moment! He has won his past two in good style, defeating the handy Cars King Prawn on both occasions. He draws poorly tonight and goes up in weight but winning form is good form and boy is this horse in form! Blade Force (12) vied for the lead last start but couldn’t quite cross to the fence and his effort to finish close up was super. He has to contend with an extreme draw but if he can cross to the front he will be mighty hard to run down with a light weight. Nugget Warrior (1) is as consistent as they come and coming off consecutive placings on this course where he found Loyal Army a shade too strong and then closed well from three back the fence. He is drawn to get the gun run and does drop in weight for his latest second to Team Work over this distance. One at a bit of value who enjoys these conditions is One Wee Acorn (2) who stormed home four runs back in a similar race to defeat Royal Doctor. His subsequent starts have been good, including close up finishes behind Presto and Brave Kid on the Sha Tin course. He is better suited back to Happy Valley tonight and should be good each way odds.
Selections:
4-12-1-2
Race 7 – THE ROTARY CENTENARY CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)
Turf ,”A” Course ,1650m
Rating 80-60
Happy Seven (4) looks the goods here with Prebble up and a gun draw. Back to back wins over this distance on the Sha Tin course, he simply looks too good for these and will be making his way up through the ratings pretty quickly. One at odds and a good quinella horse is Happy Tumbler (6) who looks suited by the rise in distance after some strong performances over lesser ground where he has run on both starts since coming from Australian trainer Peter Moody. Darren Beadman takes the ride and he looks an each way prospect at a price. Easy Ahead (5) looks the leader here and if you overlook his previous run over 1800m where he struggled to run it out, he looks a top hope back to the mile. He led till the last stride when just beaten by Luminous two runs back and should be in front for a long way again. Strawberry (3) is also coming back in distance but he’s going really well at the moment and shouldn’t be left out of calculations.
Selections:
4-6-5-3
Race 8 – SHA TIN HANDICAP
Turf ,”A” Course ,1650m
Rating 80-60
I like Soviet Pearl (1) here in the last as he simply has been racing against better horses for a race of this caliber. He returns to the Happy Valley circuit which he is a winner after close up efforts behind Super Satin, Danzulu and A Walk In The Park. He has a horror draw to contend with but he should be able to overcome it. My Mate Adric (10) should be rock hard fit now after a solid on pace placing behind Yue Lu Treasure last start. He has impressed on the training track and looks in good order. Bullish Win (3) should start favourite here and did put in a good effort when leading and being run down late behind Flying In last start. He draws to lead again and Brett Prebble jumps on. Absolute Hedge (11) rises in class after a commanding victory over this distance last start, defeating up and comer The Untouchablelad. This is his right level and should enjoy the weight relief and a good draw while he can with leading jockey Douglas Whyte.
Selections:
1-10-3-11
Written by Xavier Blair
