1/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

A bumper nine race program has been set down for Flemington on Saturday for Turnbull Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Mount Olympus (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) looks a colt with good talent. Majority of these jumped out here last week down the straight and I was impressed by this guy. The time was nothing flash relative to the morning, but what I liked is that when asked, he responded and produced good change up speed. Market is the guide but I reckon he goes pretty good.

2 Beluga Express (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a Team Hayes trained colt that debuts after trialling here last Thursday. He sat off the speed before Nolen presented him clear air and under light riding, he went through his gears nicely and seemingly moved well enough to my eye. Stable are good with their juveniles, so he commands respect.

10 Charm Stone (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is in the mix. Price/Kent trained daughter of I Am Invincible that ran down the straight here in a jumpout and seemingly moved pretty well to my eye when second. Jamie Kah booked for the ride and drawn out, I think she’ll get clear air and is dangerous.

Keen on 2 Character (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). He has a good third up record and has quality when right. Looked all over a winner of the Cameron at Newcastle last time but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to surprise winner Wild Chap, but he was out wide on a day where the inside was red hot. Hard fit now, maps ideally and a firm deck should see him prove hard to beat.

7 Visinari (Bet Now: $1.85 TOP ODDS) is here to rock and roll fresh I’d suggest. He’s a good horse for the Price/Kent camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since June 18 here when a close up second to Tuvalu, who ran so well in the Sir Rupert Clarke, so the form has been ticked off, his jumpout work has been strong and did spank them fresh last prep.

5 Poland (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is capable with his best. He resumed three weeks ago down the straight in the Bobbie Lewis and was never a factor given where he was out the back so be forgiving of the effort behind Baller. The rise to 1400m looks ideal and his best is clearly good enough to take this out.

4 Moko (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is one of a couple I’m early specking for the Oaks. She resumed on the Synthetic where I thought she was a good thing on paper but Thornton rode her like it was a trial, flopping out the back and taking far too long to get rolling, motoring late to finish second. Eats up the mile and has quality from her 2YO season, plus gets a ripping jockey upgrade with Jamie Kah steering. Leading contender.

1 She’s Licketysplit (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is the class runner of the field and that class will carry her a long way. She resumed in the Guineas Prelude where she was doing work on speed and though safely held late by Boogie Dancer, I really liked the way she stuck on to finish third. Fitter, up to the mile, hard to beat.

2 Sumatra (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a filly with good talent for James Cummings. Ran in the Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield two weeks ago and was never a factor to run past Boogie Dancer but was very good late when second to that filly. Should eat up the mile and I do think the penny has dropped.

8 Excelida (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is worth an each way ticket I feel. She resumed two weeks ago in the How Now at Caulfield and ran as well as she could have first up IMO on testing ground behind Zapateo. Fitter and up to 1400m and onto a firmer deck, bigger track, I think she’ll run a beauty at odds.

1 Yearning (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is hard to beat. Team Hawkes trained mare that resumed three weeks ago in the Let’s Elope at this track/distance and was good from off the speed when a closing third to Kissonallforcheeks. That form race stood up in the Stocks last Friday night and fitter, she’ll be hard to hold out.

5 Argentia (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) will need luck from the gate but she has the quality to be dangerous. She resumes, having not raced since the Sangster when back and making up some ground without threatening behind Snapdancer. Liked the way she went in a recent Flemington jumpout and hopefully can settle closer in the run, not just flopping out the back.

3 Giga Kick (Bet Now: $1.85) has been really well handled by Clayton Douglas. They could have easily gone down the Caulfield Guineas path but they have kept him on ice and focused on the Coolmore, with this as a starting point. He was superb in winning the Vain, wearing down Alpha One. Jumpout was a good piece of work and proven down the straight. Hard to beat.

Back on a firmer deck, I want to give 8 Doull (Bet Now: $6.00) another chance. He resumed down the straight here three weeks ago and on face value, was quite plain, but he was near the speed, which wasn’t the spot to be given the strong headwind, plus the track was quite wet. Back on top of the ground, J Kah on, he can run a much improved race.

5 Buenos Noches (Bet Now: $4.50) has a few loose screws upstairs but clearly he has a good engine. Got the win on protest here three weeks back, with Spacewalk causing interference and taking the run of Buenos Noches, with Froggy getting the win in the Stewards room. Proven straight peformer, he’ll sit back and launch late.

8 Lunar Flare (Bet Now: $9.00) will eat up 2500m. She ran in the Naturalism at Caulfield where Dee rode her like it was a barrier trial. Sat back, no initiative and just left the run far too late. Proven performer at the trip and with a more positive steer, I think she’s good enough to take this out.

2 Vow And Declare (Bet Now: $8.00) looked absolutely cast as a horse but I think he’s flying for Danny O’Brien. He was an eye catcher fresh at Caulfield behind Jimmy The Bear before going here three weeks back and he was very good from the back when third to High Emocean. Getting towards peak fitness and up to 2500m, I think he commands respect.

11 Francesco Guardi (Bet Now: $18.00) is sneaky flying for Chris Waller. On paper, it was just a run in the Kingston Town, but the race shape and splits indicate the run had plenty of merit. He had a break between runs and was building the revs nicely but just couldn’t quite sustain. Better for the run, he’s dangerous at odds.

I’ve been saying for a few weeks that 2 Duais (Bet Now: $5.50) is a moral for the Turnbull. Here she is and I won’t be dropping off. She was very good fresh in the Memsie before going to the George Main where she was never a factor given the race shape but she kept finding the line behind Anamoe. Proven big time performer at the track/distance and this race has been in mind all prep.

I love 16 Surefire (Bet Now: $9.50) as a horse and I am very keen to see how he goes on a firm deck, the first time he’ll see one since arriving in Australia. Ridden upside down in the Kingston Town so I am forgiving of that effort. Prior runs were very good so on a dry deck, down in the weights…he’ll take beating.

5 Great House (Bet Now: $21.00) is flying for Chris Waller and with enormous upside, he commands respect. He resumed at Flemington and was one of the eye catchers of the meeting when a close up third to impressive winner Makram. Might want one more, but that return was too good to ignore.

2 Baller (Bet Now: $9.00) can win again. He got the suck run behind them when resuming in the Bobbie Lewis before cutting back inside and showing electric change up speed to win and win well. He is a bomb fresh horse but is just as capable second up, and last start proved the straight track is no issue at all.

3 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $9.00) is a straight track specialist who can bounce back. I reckon they rode him a touch warm fresh in the Bobbie Lewis and he just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Baller. He has a fab track/distance record and has class, so I wouldn’t be dismissing him as of yet.

7 Tycoonist (Bet Now: $31.00) can run an improved race. He resumed in the Theo Marks and was one of many who had no luck at a vital stage and went around like it was a barrier trial. That has been the story of his life really with his pattern but if he can get the rub of the green, he’ll launch late.

11 Cadazio (Bet Now: $8.00) has to be given another chance. He ran in the Exford three weeks ago here and was just too bad to be true. He was back and wide throughout but didn’t finish off as I thought he would. I reckon fitter, firmer footing and up to 1800m, you’ll see a much better horse and a serious Derby contender.

4 Artzino (Bet Now: $4.20) is a nice horse for the Price/Kent camp. Maiden win at Sandown was strong last time at the midweeks, sitting back before coming wider and what I liked is that he was very strong to the line and through it, which is expected given he is by Tarzino. Eats up 1800m and the big track. Hard to beat.

7 Makalu (Bet Now: $31.00) is in with a shout. Annabel Neasham trained three year old that won a 1400m maiden on Newcastle Cup Day. He was on speed and there to be run down but found plenty under pressure to score. He races as if 1800m will suit and does no work from the gate.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Moko

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Character

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 11 Cadazio

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 10, 11

Leg Two: 2, 16

Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 12

Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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