1/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Burgess Queen Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot on Tuesday, headlined by the Burgess Queen Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Ration Aly (Bet Now: $6.00) hasn’t set the world on fire this time in but gee she won’t know herself back in a race like this. Race shape wasn’t against her last start over 1800m here and actually didn’t mind the way she found the line behind stablemate Buster Bash. This is a very moderate and she only has to run up to last start to win this IMO.

2 He’s A Lucky Lad (Bet Now: $3.30) can bounce back. Was just a run I thought last time behind Ghobella after getting back in the run but I think the big key is getting CJP back aboard to ride. All four career wins have come when he has steered so he’s a massive improver here.

6 Beaucount (Bet Now: $34.00) will jump on the bunny and look to pinch it. He tried to do that in the Ghobella race mentioned above and condition just gave out, tiring late. Suited up in trip and on speed is no disadvantage at Ascot. Knockout chance I’d suggest.

Not much of a maiden. Even contest but landed with 2 Just A Rumour (Bet Now: $4.20). He has been solid in two runs back from a break. Last start sat wide no cover for the trip and boxed on well enough I thought when fourth. Maps to get a much better run this time around and Blinkers on is a big tick.

8 Forever Classic (Bet Now: $2.90) is knocking on the door to break the maiden status. She’s placed in both career outings, the latest at Northam where she opted for cover after showing early speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite get there. Blinkers on should hopefully sharpen her up.

6 Stay Astern (Bet Now: $26.00) can be an improver at odds. Trialled well enough prior to resuming at Northam where he got back in the run before being presented wider and loomed but as soon as you had that thought, he went backwards. Winkers on, not penning him off one run yet.

1 Galaxy Affair (Bet Now: $3.80) was scratched from a much weaker race at Mount Barker on Sunday in preference for this, which looks a good lead. I think he brings the best form, his last start seeing him run a solid fourth to Bustler, a horse being talked up as a potential Group l prospect. That was his first run in a month so fitter, up to 1400m, he appeals.

5 Aiyza (Bet Now: $4.00) is around three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when getting the suck run in behind and battled away really well in defeat when second to a handy horse, Stellar Vista. Gets in well after the claim and does find a winnable race.

6 Legacy Of Tara (Bet Now: $5.50) comes here with relatively fresh legs for Susan Olive. Her last run came at Belmont back on September 24 when down the track behind Fly Away Home, but did pull up with an elevated heart rate, so there were excuses. Winkers on for the reutrn, her prior efforts were sound.

1 Market Stryke (Bet Now: $2.20) on top for me. Simon Miller trained gelding that is a month between runs since racing on Kalgoorlie Cup Day when close up behind the speed and battled on really well when a close up fourth to Powerful, who won in town next start, so the form reads really well, he maps ideally and gets the claim for Holly Watson. He’ll do me.

6 Mojo’s Luck (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Rubick for Luke Fernie that resumes. He hasn’t raced since August 20 at Belmont when struggling on the genuine wet ground when down the track behind Rejuva King. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but the stable generally have them ready to go, so watch the market.

2 Bandalera Beau (Bet Now: $9.50) is a big watch for me. He’s a handy four year old for Fred Kersley that resumes, having not raced since the Melvista when down the track behind Alaskan God, which is looking like Railway form, so it clearly reads well for a Class 3 and his trial to get ready was sharp. Hard to beat.

I am with 6 Rare Encounter (Bet Now: $2.25). When I first looked at this race, I was trying to find a way to get her beat, but I can’t. Was 1100m to 1400m when winning a maiden here last time and she did it by sitting back and launching late, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. You think there is room for improvement and she does a weak race IMO.

2 Mail (Bet Now: $7.00) will ensure this is a truly run mile. They rode with intent at Northam last time, ensuring it was a proper mile race, rolling at a decent clip, and he just kept running to win impressively. Not sure he can use those tactics and win again, but I think he’s a horse who will stick on.

3 Dusty’s Got Talent (Bet Now: $11.00) might want one more but I think he’s returned pretty well. He resumed over 1200m here where he got back in the run and while he was never a threat, I liked the way he finished his race off behind Night Shift. Straight to the mile is a query, but he’s got more upside than most.

If the first up win was no fluke, 11 Wild Belle (Bet Now: $1.45) will win this and should be Winx like odds. She smashed the clock when winning fresh in a Northam maiden. Copped pressure on speed but quickly beat it off with change up speed and she won by a space without being fully extended. Good test coming straight to town, but she looks very sharp.

10 Village Girl (Bet Now: $9.00) is the saver bet. Both career outings have come at Northam, sprouting wings late to win on debut and next start, the run was fair on paper, but she was back on a day where on speed was the spot to be, so be forgiving. Off the debut win, she can be some sort of threat here.

6 Got Ya (Bet Now: $31.00) can be included in wider multiples. Resumed over 1200m here where he got back from the wide gate and did make up solid headway without threatening. Has a much better gate to use to settle much closer and gets a jockey upgrade IMO. Think Wild Belle wins, and this guy is a place bet.

5 Rockin’ Rupert (Bet Now: $4.20) should take a power of beating back to a very moderate race like this. He was a real eye catcher two back behind Critical Altitude before going to this track/distance where he didn’t quite get the rub of the green and should have finished closer behind Bustler. That form just reads so well for this 0MWLY. Keen.

10 Real Danger (Bet Now: $5.50) is capable. She finished in front of Rockin’ Rupert in that race mentioned above won by Bustler. But, she had her chance and was entitled to finish closer. I reckon 1200m is the query, but with a soft trip from the gate, ideally back with cover, she can run an improved race.

2 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now: $17.00) is a daughter of Rogano that resumes. Her last run came at Belmont on August 20 when far from disgraced behind a handy one, Mercanto. She is a mare who races best on dry ground so she should get conditions to suit, and her best is good enough to run well.

She’s giving them weight, she’s going to give them a start, but I think 1 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $1.50) will give them a beating and stamp herself as a coming Group l winner this Carnival. To the eye, it was just a win in the Belgravia, but she was first up with 1800m as her Grand Final, trained different, but you can’t take away class, and she has got that, in spades, over this lot.

4 Vampi At Play (Bet Now: $6.50) commands some level of respect for the Parnham camp. She resumed over 1200m here a few weeks ago here where she got back in the run and was very good late behind Real Grace, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. If she can settle closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous.

5 Miss Drakova (Bet Now: $18.00) is a place bet if Amelia’s Jewel is silly short. She resumed over 1200m in a maiden here where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted in dominant fashion in a strong return. She gets the ideal map from the inside gate and 1400m should be fine.

12 Time Stands (Bet Now: $16.00) Still each way for me in the get out. She resumed at Belmont and gave them an absolute spanking before going here when close up behind Tinsnip. She then went to Geraldton where they rode her a bit upside down, purely because she was the best horse in the race, and indeed she was when winning. Tumbles down to 51.5kg after the claim, up to 1800m, she appeals for sure at the double figures.

11 Mack Mack (Bet Now: $4.50) deserves a crack in town for Dion Luciani. He is looking to make it three wins on the bounce, the two wins coming at Kalgoorlie. Maiden win was sharp before going to a Class 2 where McNaught got control in front and the ride won the race IMO. Harder here, but is racing in good form.

1 Henchard (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hard horse to follow and trust with confidence, but he does have class. They rode him with intent last start over the mile here, leading, and I reckon it just backfired when tiring late when fourth to Bannana. I reckon with a more conservative steer, he can run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 11 Wild Belle

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Amelia’s Jewel

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Ration Aly

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 2, 6, 8, 10

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 11, 12

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