1/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the iconic race features on a massive ten race card at Flemington on Tuesday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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I haven’t seen anything from the first starters to look away from 1 Zulfiqar (Bet Now: $3.00). He won the Maribyrong Trial here on Turnbull Day and was impressive, leading throughout and ran the best last 200m of the meeting, which is impressive for a two year old first starter on a Group l meeting. Moved so well in a jumpout here last Friday, he’s the one to beat.

3 Diabelli (Bet Now: $4.60) is a stablemate of Zulfiqar that is on debut and he’s the main threat I’d suggest. He jumped out alongside that horse last Friday and moved well inside, going nicely under no real riding. Bowman steers and I think he’ll be strong late, plus should be fine on breeding.

4 Exposition (Bet Now: $7.50) is the unknown. Chris Waller trained colt having start one off the back of just one trial, which came at Rosehill where he was off the front few and wasn’t really knocked about but didn’t move too bad. Waller/J Mac combo always has to be respected.

This is a very tricky race. I think you have to play the straight bat with 7 White Marlin (Bet Now: $2.10). 4/4 to start his career and 2/2 since joining GaiBott, the latest being a strong win over 2000m in an absolute slog to the line at Caulfield, which is a good sign for a horse only second up. Two time winner at 2400m in the UK, 2800m is fine, has upside and a touch of quality.

I think lowering the targets should see 5 Teewaters (Bet Now: $26.00) run a much improved race. Archie Alexander tried to get him towards a Melbourne Cup but his recent efforts confirmed he’s not up to that level, finishing down the track in the Geelong Cup, but to be fair, he was four deep the trip. Blinkers back on, wet track, C Williams back on, there is enough to suggest he can be a big improver.

14 Bell Ex One (Bet Now: $18.00) is flying for Steve Pateman. I reckon he’s getting ready for the 3000m races at The Valley but he’s in with a shout here. He ran over that track/distance last start and given the track pattern, he was very good in defeat behind Noonday Gun. Lacks the class, but will be strong late.

10 The Cunning Fox (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t raced since Anzac Day but the grounding is there to suggest he can run well fresh. He’s a good horse for Patrick Payne that resumes, having not raced since the St Leger when a game second to Alegron. Three jumpouts and a trial to get ready, fitness isn’t an issue, and the last month or so, this stable has got their horses ready first up. Hoping that continues here.

1 Love Tap (Bet Now: $13.00) can be hit and miss, but the best version of him is good enough to take this out. He resumes, having not raced since August 27 at Eagle Farm when leading and tiring late behind Bartholemeu Dias. I reckon a bit of cushion in the track is ideal and his two Sydney trials have been encouraging.

11 Standoff (Bet Now: $61.00) is eligible for easier but if they overdo it front, she can sit back and launch. She ran on Sale Cup Day last Sunday and was quite good from the back without threatening Prowling. She has a real liking for Flemington and won’t mind some juice in the ground.

7 Cool Kaap (Bet Now: $6.50) is a horse I want to give another chance to. He was very good fresh at Canterbury and to the eye, it was a plain effort at Warwick Farm last time, but the race shape and racing tight between horses just didn’t suit him I felt. Fitter, up to 1800m, J Mac on, he’ll do me each way.

12 Quang Tri (Bet Now: $2.30) is a ripper for Patrick Payne. She resumed on Caulfield Cup Day where she looked a good thing against an average bunch and despite the big weight, shifty track, she was much too good. The rise to 1800m looks fine, should get three/four wide cover and be strong late.

9 High Approach (Bet Now: $21.00) is a horse I do have time for. Archie Alexander trains this three year old, who was somewhat luckless fresh at Geelong before beating an average bunch on the Synthetic at Ballarat. He’ll eat up 1800m on breeding…doubt he wins, but a first four threat.

1000m horse for 1000m races…that’s why the each way bet for me is 5 Alpha Flight (Bet Now: $5.50). Team Jolly have been a bit quiet when it comes to bringing horses to Melbourne but this guy looks a decent short course animal. He spanked them at Morphettville last time when back to 1050m from 1250m, with sustained speed coming to the fore. He’ll land near the bunny, hard fit, in form, handles wet ground…hard to beat.

17 Kin (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for James Cummings. Strong winner fresh in a hot maiden at Newcastle before having a couple of runs at Caulfield where she has been absolutely luckless both times. Proven down the straight, fast run 1000m suits and she’ll be hard to beat if she’s within range.

14 Pyrois (Bet Now: $10.00) is a colt with talent. He resumed over 1200m at Newcastle when leading throughout and yes, the pattern was in his corner, but he did work and was there to be beaten, but found plenty and was too good. Back to 1000m I find interesting, but he’s the one that will be strong on speed.

1 Just Folk (Bet Now: $5.50) is a beauty for Josh Julius. Game second in the Seymour Cup two back before going to the Craven Plate and he loomed large to win but was simply no match for Cascadian. The track will have genuine give, he has class and the A1 form. Hard to beat.

13 Lord Vladivostok (Bet Now: $8.00) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. He ran in the Murray Bridge Cup when three and four wide for the trip but he was trucking in the run and looked home when Pannell pushed the button but was nabbed on the peg by Agreeable. Think Saturday was a prep run when back in trip so now back up in trip now is a positive. Hard fit now and up in trip, he’s a key threat.

7 Regal Lion (Bet Now: $13.00) is three weeks between runs for Annabel Neasham since racing in the Herbert Power at Caulfield where he got back in the run and was never really a threat, finishing down the track behind Saracen Knight. The win prior at Sandown was outstanding, so have to give him another chance.

The more I do the form on this race, the more I warm to 12 Hoo Ya Mal (Bet Now: $14.00). Several months ago, I thought he was zero chance and just assumed the runner up finish in the Derby was a fluke given he was $151. But I think he’s going into this race as one of the leading contenders. That Gordon Stakes form line has been red hot, he won soon after and just couldn’t go with them in a pretty strong St Leger. He might be 6-12 months away, but I can’t let him go because he has the potential to be special.

Jury was out after the Hill Stakes on 4 Montefilia (Bet Now: $11.00), but that run can be excused given it was a fast run race and she resumed in essentially a barrier trial prior. David Payne is a very good trainer of stayers and really, his stable has been firing in recent weeks/months, as seen when a slashing fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Been set for the race and a drop of rain would certainly enhance her claims. She’s right in the mix and can certainly win this.

I am stunned 8 Deauville Legend (Bet Now: $3.60) is Melbourne Cup favourite.  Yes, he has the right profile of being the Northern Hemisphere 3YO, but we are awake to it now and not just giving them 51kg/thereabouts. He’s got 55kg, so he’s weighted on the assumption he’ll be too good. He might well be too good, and the Great Voltigeur win was outstanding, but this is next level, and I’m alone in thinking K McEvoy on is a negative.

Plenty of people have dropped off 2 Duais (Bet Now: $21.00), thinking she hasn’t come up this time in. I think she is right on track. The Autumn, it was a case of being not sure what they had, but she then was luckless in the Chipping Norton, confirming the promise with an Australian Cup/Tancred double. This prep, her sole focus has been the Melbourne Cup. If the track is Soft 5/6 come jump time, I think she’s #1 seed for the locals. Just not sure she gets it, but she’s the best horse in the race.

Have to take a chance with 14 Green Fly (Bet Now: $9.50), a former French galloper which makes his Australian debut for Team Freedman. His form reads pretty well for a race like this to my eye, and his latest jumpout, I thought he moved well on speed without really being asked. Likes wet ground, and really, this is such a winnable race.

The wet track is a query with 6 Minsk Moment (Bet Now: $5.50) but he’s found winning form. He looked so well placed on Geelong Cup Day and under a peach from J Mac, he launched late to finish over the top for a good win. If this track was dry, he’d be top pick. Just not entirely sure he’s happy on wet ground.

13 Detonator Jack (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very interesting runner. Quality animal for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the SA Derby where he was ridden quite negatively and spotted those in front too much head start when third to Jungle Magnate. Resuming at 1400m is the unknown but he could well be just better than them. Watch the market.

Back to 1400m is ideal for 18 Finepoint (Bet Now: $10.00). Chris Waller trained mare that ran over the mile in the Angst last start and I thought she was going to win when presented clear air but being a tad keen in the run, 1600m just found her out when third to Hope In Your Heart. More genuine tempo at 1400m, hard fit, I think she’s a good each way gamble.

1 Promise Of Success (Bet Now: $5.00) is the class of the field and that will carry her a long way. She is half looking for redemption after being scratched on raceday before this race last year. She comes back in winning form after taking out The Invitation at Randwick in good style, just fending off Electric Girl. Hard to beat I’d suggest with room for improvement.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 7 Mac N Cheese (Bet Now: $26.00). This mare resumed in the Black Pearl on Geelong Cup Day and while she was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Turaath. Might want one more, but inside gate sees her do no work and is fine on wet ground.

10 Nicolini Vito (Bet Now: $5.50) will do me in the get out. Team Hayes trained gelding that had a mini freshen up prior to racing at Caulfield where he got a fair way back in the run but loved the way he closed off when second to Gravina. Proven straight track performer, sense of timing, draws right part of the track, he’ll do me.

11 Zethus (Bet Now: $4.20) has returned in pretty good order. Had the suck run behind the speed and proved too good for them fresh at The Valley before going to Caulfield where he was wide and doing work, but battled on pretty well in defeat behind Gravina. Hard fit now, drawn wide to get clear air, hard to beat.

16 Vespertine (Bet Now: $8.50) might want one more but she has a touch of quality about her. Resumed in the Northwood Plume at Caulfield and I thought she warmed to the task nicely late without threatening behind Literary Magnate. Has run well down the straight before and will be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 White Marlin

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Zulfiqar

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 18 Finepoint

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, 24

Leg Two: 5, 6, 10, 13, 14

Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 18

Leg Four: 6, 10, 11, 16

$50 Investment = 7.81% of the dividend if successful

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