1/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hawkesbury, Hawkesbury Cup day

Hawkesbury will play host to their standalone Saturday meeting this weekend where the feature races are the Hawkesbury Cup and the Hawkesbury Guineas. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Hawkesbury Guineas 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Hawkesbury Guineas

Hawkesbury Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Hawkesbury Cup

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I’ll side with 1 Gleneagles (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) for David Payne. First run for the stable came in an 1100m maiden here. Got back off the speed before trucking his way through the field. Got clear and he really attacked the line, recording an impressive maiden win. He’s progressive, got class and the 1400m should be ideal.

Chris Waller loves to use this race as a JJ Atkins lead up and he has 2 Aslav (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) engaged. This is the first horse that Waller trains for James Harron and they are 1/1 in their partnership with this colt winning on debut here, knuckling down strongly when asked and drew clear late. Has to be respected.

5 Carartie (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) lacks the class of the first two, but she has had a better grounding with a 1200m run and 1400m run under the belt this prep. The 1400m run came at Kembla where she was back in an on speed dominated affair. Liked the way she finished her race off, so she’s a must for multiples.

Fitter and up to 1500m, see no reason why 6 Luvoir (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) can’t win again. Market didn’t want a bar of him fresh when racing over 1300m here. But, he sat on speed, clicked up and away he went. He was dominant and the overall time was sharp, so with upside, I think he can win again.

10 Ruby Tuesday (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is a mare that is in form for Gary Portelli. They rode her positively last time out at this track/distance at the midweeks and the end result was a dominant win in fast time. This is clearly a harder assignment but hard to knock the way she is going at the moment.

8 The Grinder (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Former Kiwi that made his Australian debut over 1300m at Warwick Farm where he was given a peach by J Mac and surged hard late to get the win. He’s got upside to come and the form around him when he raced in NZ does have substance.

I’m confident that 12 Charlton Park (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) runs well here. Scott Singleton trained mare that wasn’t exactly expected to do much fresh at Muswellbrook over 1280m according to the trainer, but nobody told the mare that. She led throughout and was very impressive with her sustained speed. She’s got improvement to come, suited up in trip…no reason why she can’t win again.

1 Golden Gorge (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS), on paper, looks so well placed in a Class 2 Highway given he recently contested a solid Town Plate Prelude at Wagga, an open sprint, and when trained in Victoria, he did win a metro race at Sandown, so he has the runs on the board, he has a good draw and gets Nash to steer. Very likeable, especially at 1400m.

2 Black Sunrise (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is going well for Cameron Crockett and has to be respected here. Ran over 1400m at Mudgee last time out where he got back off the speed and held up for a few strides before eventually getting clear and surging late to just miss out on the win when a narrow second. Deserves another win and is a definite winning chance.

I think they have found the key to 12 Yangtze Rapids (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS). Let hm roll forward and be on speed, something that isn’t usually known for a Waller horse, but this horse had been teasing to win for some time. But last start they rode positively from the outset and the end result was a dominant win, along with a trip to Queensland for the Derby. Got the upside and racing pattern now to go on with it.

1 Luncies (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat for me. Former UK galloper that made his Australian debut over 1550m at Canterbury where he got back to near last in the run and in a race dominated by the leader Mr Dependable (won since), he had no chance, but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off. He’ll take beating up in trip and fitter.

2 Mongolian Wolf (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) can sneak a first four spot at odds. He resumed over 1500m here and in a race where those near the speed dominated, I thought he was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Ruby Tuesday after getting a fair way back in the run. Not sure he wins, but a must for multiples.

2 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $3.50) is back on track. Thought she was plain two back in the Emancipation, so the stable freshened her up back to 1200m for the Sapphire instead of pressing on towards the Coolmore Legacy. She was excellent in the Sapphire in a fast run race won by Fasika. Reckon with improvement off that, she’s hard to beat.

5 Athiri (Bet Now: $2.80) looks the only other winning chance. Quality mare for James Cummings that resumes, with eyes towards the Tatts Tiara I dare say. She had a fab Spring/Summer, which included a couple of blacktype wins and a narrow second to Krone, who went on to win the Coolmore Classic, so the form around her reads well, and she looked sharp in a recent trial win here.

9 Jen Rules (Bet Now: $17.00) is another that is starting to find positive form. Wasn’t exactly sold on her two back in the Birthday Card but she found firmer footing, somewhat, in the Sapphire and worked home strongly from the back behind Fasika. She is a mare who excels on firm footing and she should get that here.

4 Wayupinthesky (Bet Now: $31.00) I do like back to 1100m. Both career wins have come at the trip and I think while she ran well in the Birthday Card, I think that rubber stamped that six furlongs at this level just finds her out. 1100m is her sweet spot and the mini freshen up I do like given she races best on the fresh side.

11 Embracer (Bet Now: $5.00) is an interesting runner. WaterBott trained sprinter that had a two run Winter prep and ran well fresh, but failed next start and was spelled. I think he’s much better on top of the ground and his recent trial win at Randwick suggests he could well be back and ready to run a big race fresh.

1 Special Reward (Bet Now: $8.50) is a talented sprinter for Kris Lees that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Falvelon at Eagle Farm on Boxing Day when wide no cover and feeling the pinch late behind Roheryn. He’s a good fresh and the trials from him are to be expected. He always trials well, so he commands respect.

3 Ellsberg (Bet Now: $1.90) looks a potential Stradbroke horse so with that in mind, I’m clearly in his corner here. Resumed two weeks ago in the South Pacific and really, the race was over after 200m. Once Clark found the front and found control, he was never getting beat. Looks to have really come on with the first prep under the belt and I think he can go on with it.

10 Elizabeel (Bet Now: $8.00) is on the seven day back up for John Sargent after racing last Saturday in the J H B Carr. Led most of the way and looked home when Dolan kicked on her, but she couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by All Hallow’s Eve. Gets a suck run behind Ellsberg and should run well.

5 Rainbow Connection (Bet Now: $7.50) is a nice horse for Matty Dunn. Whether this is too soon for him I’m not sure but he has a good engine under the hood. Real eye catcher against the race shape in the South Pacific behind Ellsberg when a closing third. If he can sit closer in the run, I think he’ll be dangerous.

With due respect, this is such an awful edition of this race. Awful overall, so I think just go with the best horse in the race, which is clearly 1 Greysful Glamour (Bet Now: $7.00). Forget she went around in the Coolmore Legacy. The track had give in it and Mark Newnham has stated that when this mare is on a wet track, she turns it up, so touch wood we get a dry deck for her, she can control from the front and prove hard to run down.

2 Archedemus (Bet Now: $6.50) won this race a couple of years ago so keen to see how he goes. On the seven day back up after racing over 1400m last Saturday at Randwick when near the speed and battling on okay behind Rocha Clock. He did a ten day back up in the Spring and won The Gong, so the back up should be okay.

5 Costello (Bet Now: $51.00) is a David Payne trained stayer that resumes. I would suggest a race like the Grafton Cup or the Winter staying features in Sydney could be on the cards for this guy. Hasn’t raced since Golden Eagle Day when down the track in the ATC Cup behind Greysful Glamour. Thought he trialled up well on Tuesday, so watch the market.

Keen on 6 Grande Rumore (Bet Now: $2.40). He reminds me of Cristal Breeze. Not because they both kicked off their Australian career with a win at Canterbury. It was the way he trialled, his UK form. Very similar to the Provincial Championship winner. He’s a very progressive horse that I think can measure up to this lot.

This race has really fallen away after scratchings. 9 Ocean Emperor (Bet Now: $6.00) is lightly raced and showing decent promise. He attempted to lead throughout at Canterbury last time out and gave a really good kick in front. Looked home, but Bowman magic aboard Mollycoddle beat him on the line. Lands on speed and will be hard to get past.

7 Serena (Bet Now: $17.00) is the fascinating runner. Former Kiwi that makes her Australian debut for Robert Pearse. Last start, she did place in a Mares Stakes race, which reads well for what is, overall, a moderate 78, and I liked the way she closed off in her Randwick trial. Knockout chance at odds.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Ellsberg

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Sweet Deal

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 12 Charlton Park

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Four: 6, 7, 9, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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