10/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Guineas day

Caulfield Guineas Day is one of the better days on the Australian racing calendar with ten races, four of those at Group l level. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Like 5 Extreme Warrior (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) here in the opener. He’s a son of Extreme Choice for the Price/Kent stable that has had a couple of jumpouts here to get ready and what I’ve liked about the way he has gone about it is that when pressure has been applied, he has responded and responded nicely. Draws soft and has home track advantage.

12 Fake Love (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is an I Am Invincible trained filly that is having start one. Stable usually fire when they produce an early juvenile and this girl looks ready made, looking quite sharp in a recent jumpout alongside Extreme Warrior. Draws well towards the ail, which is an advantage with these early racy types, and stable gets Zahra to steer.

13 Naples (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) Is a Street Boss filly for James Cummings. The stable fired last Saturday in the 2YO race at Flemington so I’m respecting this girl, who has jumped out well leading in. Tricky gate to overcome, but should get three wide cover from there and Johnny Allen steers. Think she’s key chance against these.

The Cap D’Antibes looks as if it will be one of the best form races of the Spring and I think it will continue here via 3 Swats That (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS). Very good in defeat in that race behind September Run before confirming that form was strong with a commanding win in the Scarborough on Moir Night at the Valley. Third up, hard fit and noteworthy that John Allens rides this girl and not Muntaseera.

4 Muntaseera (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in excellent order for the Maher/Eustace camp. Jumped out quite well prior to resuming over 1100m here three weeks ago and the race just set up perfectly for her. Back, wide with cover, before blending into the race at the right time and her class came to the fore near the line. Looks to have come back well and is one of the hardest to beat.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for the Busuttin/Young filly 1 Letzbeglam (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS). Resumed in the Cap D’Antibes over the 1100m and just lacked the speed in the legs to go with them but was more than sound in defeat. Gets a rise to 1200m, which I do like for this girl, and she’s got a touch of class/quality.

6 Windstorm (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) looks the pony to bet on here. Pike gave him a peach when winning over 1400m here two weeks ago, sitting off a genuine speed before peeling wider into clear air and finishing right over the top for a strong win. If Runson and Cuba go at a good clip, it will set up perfect for him once again.

7 Phaistos (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Helmet that resumes. This guy ran in the 1400m race on Cup Day at Flemington and was luckless. I dare say that is the race connections will have eyes on again, or perhaps a Cantala with a win here. He is first up and comes here off the back of a couple of strong trials back in Sydney. Good fresh horse and stable in form so watch the market.

3 Travimyfriend (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) would love a drop of rain and then some to hit Caulfield. Surprised many with his win at Flemington two back at big odds before racing at this track/distance and he worked home okay without really threatening behind Windstorm. Not sure I could back him to win, but he’s a must for multiples.

It’s hard to get away from what 4 Felicia (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) did three weeks ago in the How Now. She absolutely spanked them under Craig Williams and ran really good time relative to the meeting. I think in time, she could measure up in Group l races ie Sangster/Goodwood, but these Mares races are perfect placement for her.

1 Xilong (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality daughter of Deep Field for the McEvoy camp that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Carnival when leading and tiring late in a fast run Goodwood won by Trekking, who beat Gytrash, which is just about A1 sprinting form in Australia. Trial win was fabulous and she’s right on track.

5 In Good Time (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is a ripper for Tracey Bartley that always runs well when she’s on the road and that was the case once again when she raced in the How Now three weeks back. Tried hard, but was clearly no match for Felicia, so I doubt she turns the tables on that Mare here, but should run well all the same.

3 Splintex (Bet Now: $7.00) is three weeks between runs for the Mark Newnham stable since racing in The Shorts when on a hot speed and he tried hard, but that brutal early tempo brought him undone when down the track behind Classique Legend. Think this is really good placement by the stable and should be hard to beat against this lot.

10 Diamond Effort (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Clinton McDonald trained mare that is a ripper and is proving to be effective on firm whereas once upon a time she was a swimmer. Luckless in the Moir behind Pippie. Not sure she wins, but should have run a place I feel. Tricky draw, but small field helps and she’s flying at the moment. Hard to beat.

7 Octane (Bet Now: $10.00) is a key threat for me. Phillip Stokes has done a wonderful job with this gelding and looks one of the leading chances here. He is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance and gee he was stiff. Could easily make a case to say he should have won instead of a luckless fourth to From Within. Clear air this time around, he’ll take a power of beating.

6 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $1.50) picks himself here. Still have my doubts on him being a Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup horse, but these WFA Group l races as an entire are important on the CV and he should get another one next to his name after a dominant win here two weeks ago in the Underwood. Only bad luck will beat him.

2 Humidor (Bet Now: $7.00) is absolutely flying for Chris Waller. Brilliant finale saw him win the Feehan first up to gain entry into the Cox Plate. Then went to the Underwood and was very good in inferior ground when second to Russian Camelot. Highly doubt he beats the boom horse here, but should run another positive race to get ready for the Cox Plate.

1 Gailo Chop (Bet Now: $23.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully. Needed the run in the Makybe Diva behind Fierce Impact before going to the Underwood and he was good late, just missing out on the third place to Arcadia Queen, finishing fourth to Russian Camelot. He’ll put himself near the front here and give a sight for a fair way.

1 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $3.10) won’t get a better chance to win a major. The majority think the Sydney fillies have a lap on the Melbourne contingent and with due respect, the fact Rock My Wand ran third in the Prelude says as much. Hungry Heart comes out of fast run races, especially the Flight Stakes last Saturday when pipped late by Montefilia. Waller wouldn’t back her up for the sake of it. She wins and wins well.

If 3 Instant Celebrity (Bet Now: $4.00) runs out the 1600m strongly, she’s the key threat to Hungry Heart. Just a little question mark on her at the trip, but class/brilliance may well get her home. Somewhat arrogant in the Prelude two weeks ago but what I will say is that she didn’t exactly savage the line like a horse wanting further, so I’d be cautious before taking anything under $4.

I think 4 Personal (Bet Now: $16.00) can turn the tables on Instant Celebrity. Pass mark for sure fresh in the Danehill before the Winkers went on in the Prelude and I thought she was very good to the line and through it when second to Instant Celebrity. She’ll eat up 1600m+ for sure and will be strong late compared to some here, who are suspect.

I’m a leading member of the 9 Mo’unga (Bet Now: $6.50) fan club and expect him to win this and then run well in a Cox Plate. Let down like a really good horse at Newcastle before going to the Dulcify and that’s where he showed he was no one hit wonder, producing a sparkling turn of foot to win impressively. Barring bad luck or a career PB from a rival, he wins again. He’s a star IMO.

1 Tagaloa (Bet Now: $4.50) is a query at a strong mile IMO, but he gets the soft gate to get every chance to see it out. His two runs back from a break have been just fair, firstly in the McNeil before a solid enough effort in the Sir Rupert Clarke. Both races haven’t rated through the roof, so that’s the query here, but he has class being the Blue Diamond winner.

I’m very wary of 2 King’s Legacy (Bet Now: $7.00). He comes out of two fast run races, which should have him cherry ripe for this assignment. Resumed and was good late in the Run To The Rose before going to the Golden Rose where he again closed his race off nicely when third to Ole Kirk and North Pacific. This is the race he has been set for and the stable are great Grand Final trainers.

15 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $4.40) looks one of the hardest to beat. Michael Moroney trained gelding that resumed over 1400m here two weeks ago where he led but was just a touch keen in the run. That probably brought him undone in the end when beaten narrowly by the hard fit and in form Windstorm. He’ll come on from that and is the one to beat.

4 I Am Superman (Bet Now: $9.50) deserves his crack at Group l level. Just not sure about him on a track with give in it, but the Snowden camp has him flying. 2/2 this time in, the latest coming in the Shannon at Rosehill when on speed and drawing clear late to win well. That form has already been franked with runners from that race going well in the Epsom last Saturday. Hard to beat provided the track isn’t overly rain affected.

2 Cascadian (Bet Now: $10.00) has such an awful racing pattern but his best is clearly good enough to win. He comes through the Sir Rupert Clarke where not much went right for him and clearly should have finished closer behind Behemoth. He has that pattern of flopping out the back and needing luck, but if he gets it, he’s good enough to take advantage of it.

A nation roars for a hero…the hero being 3 Orderofthegarter (Bet Now: $2.25). This is more than a likely a tune up for the Caulfield Cup next Saturday, but the depth is pretty thin as a whole and all things being equal, he should win. He smashed the clock when winning the Naturalism, stamping himself as one of the hardest to beat next Saturday. Should be winning this.

7 In Good Health (Bet Now: $6.50) will give a bold sight here I’m sure. Peter Moody has done a really good job with this mare, and it’s job done really after snaring blacktype two back in the Heatherlie. She then went to the Naturalism and was very game setting a hot speed and feeling the pinch late when fourth to Orderofthegarter. She’ll run well..last bit may test.

10 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $12.00) is going well as ever I feel for Archie Alexander. He looks to be flying. Ran in the Naturalism at Caulfield over 2000m and while he was never a winning threat, his last 200m was one of the best of the meeting. Blinkers back on, up to 2400m, sense of timing…he can only run well.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 3 Orderofthegarter

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Hungry Heart

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 3 Splintex

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 13, 15

Leg Four: 3

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