10/4/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WATC Derby day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday with a strong nine race card, where it is WA Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

WATC Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the WATC Derby

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1 Prized Nemesis (Bet Now: $5.50) is two weeks between runs for Anne King after bolting up here. It wasn’t a strong race compared to what he faces here, but he was dominant in the run to the line and his overall time was solid enough. Harder here, but he’s in form and should prove hard to beat.

4 City Circle (Bet Now: $2.40) is on the seven day back up for Neville Parnham after racing last Saturday over 1000m here. She chased strongly from off the speed but just failed to pick up an in form Requisition. She does seem effective at 1000m so the 1100m is a query but off the last run, she should be fine.

5 Carabiner (Bet Now: $11.00) should improve off the resumption. That came two weeks ago over 1200m here behind Prized Nemesis. Sat back off the speed and didn’t really fire, but was only beaten just over four lengths. Needs to improve a fair bit I’d suggest, so not sure I could back to win, but one for exotics.

1 Notorious One (Bet Now: $3.50) should take a power of beating I’d suggest. Jury was somewhat out after his trial but his resumption two weeks ago over 1400m here suggested he has come back really well. He was building the revs and ready to burst through and win, but the gap didn’t present. Better luck this time around and he’ll give this a shake.

6 Standout Rose (Bet Now: $2.10) should appreciate the rise to the mile. Bruce Watkins trained filly that takes on the older horses, but as a whole, the depth here isn’t overly strong. She ran over 1400m here last Saturday and worked home very strongly from off the speed when third to Billy Ain’t Silly. Leading contender.

5 Rogues Point (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the quick back up for Justin Warwick after racing on Sunday at Albany. He sat back off the speed before peeling wider and launching late, just missing out on picking up Captain Sharmane. Was 1400m back to 1230m there so back up in trip, he could be dangerous.

I think class gets 1 Kallaroo (Bet Now: $17.00) home fresh. Quality three year old for Dan Morton that resumes after a solid Spring Carnival, where the highlight was clearly the Fairetha win when beating home boom three year old Western Empire. Closed off strongly behind Rock Magic in a recent trial and he’ll be charging at these late, hopefully finishing over the top.

2 Kaptain Kaos (Bet Now: $2.45) has done a super job since joining Michael Grantham, winning 2/2. Impressive first up maiden win at Bunbury, then proved that was no fluke with a dominant win at this track/distance when beating the older horses. Ran solid time as well, so think he has to be respected.

8 Let’s Cut Loose (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Simon Miller trained filly who looks progressive. She resumed in a maiden at this track/distance and under the urgings of Pike, the filly lifted late and got up to win. Her overall time was plain so in that regard, she needs to improve, but is in the right camp to do so.

Siding with 1 Ain’t No Other Man (Bet Now: $3.60). It was a sustained market push for him when he resumed at this track/distance. The betting was spot on as he sat off a decent speed, came wider and unleashed a brilliant finale to get over the top and landed the plunge. He can go on with it here.

3 Featherweight (Bet Now: $2.25) has the form around him to give this a shake. He tried to sneak into the Karrakatta Plate via the Supremacy/Perth and while he didn’t win and force his way into the field, he did try hard and was game in defeat. This looks more his level and should prove hard to beat.

6 Written Exceed (Bet Now: $18.00) is an interesting runner. Son of Safeguard on debut for the Trevor Andrews yard. He has had two trials this prep to get ready for start one, with a 400m trial followed by a 1000m trial, both of which were at Belmont, and he looked to go about his business nicely. Should be respected.

7 Bogart (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing very well at the moment for Adam Durrant and confident he can get back to winning ways. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and worked home strongly from off the speed when second to the in form That’s Funny Az. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s certainly good enough.

1 Cockney Crew (Bet Now: $4.80) deserves another chance. He resumed several weeks ago in the Detonator where he went out quite hard on speed, which left him with pretty much nothing left for the straight, ending up running last. Two subsequent tick over trials have been strong and we know his best is good enough.

5 Adornment (Bet Now: $7.00) is a handy mare that resumes. She will have eyes on feature races during the Winter I dare say over a staying trip so whatever she does here, she will improve on, but during the Summer she was putting it together and ended up running in the Perth Cup. She’ll get back and work home, potentially sneaking a first four spot.

With the run under the belt, I think 3 Some Sort (Bet Now: $2.60) will be better for it and prove hard to run down. Market took a set against him fresh at this track/distance two weeks ago and while it was proven right, he did a good job in front and kicking on as he did to run third. Better for that, he’ll land on speed and prove hard to get past.

9 Angelic Miss (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Savabeel for Simon Miller that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since December 5 at this track/distance when back near last in the run and working home strongly without threatening behind Dark Mission. How strong is that form? Not sure, but this mare looks to be going well if her recent trial is any guide.

5 Sweet Angeline (Bet Now: $8.00) is a former Singapore mare who has done a pretty good job since joining Justin Warwick. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Bunbury before going to Albany on Sunday where she landed in a plum spot under Lucy Warwick and finished best to win narrowly but impressively. Upside to come so gets some level of respect.

I’m hoping the defeat of 9 Clairvoyance (Bet Now: $1.65) last Saturday will ensure she won’t be silly short for this and then you can bet up. Have to remember that she only had one soft 400m trial leading into last weekend, so I’m treating that more as an 1100m barrier trial. Hoping that is the case, it brings her on and we can see how good she is.

3 Platinum Bullet (Bet Now: $4.20) should appreciate a rise in trip for Simon Miller. She ran last Saturday in that race mentioned above. Came off the bit a fair way out and for a few strides, looked to be going nowhere, but picked up and surged hard to just miss. Off that, she’ll take beating here.

4 Cockyjoy (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the seven day back up and comes back in trip. He ran last Saturday over 1500m here when back near last in the run and while he was never really a winning factor, he did make up minor headway. I highly doubt he wins this, but is one I could include in multiples.

I’ve been hot on 4 Flash Ducati (Bet Now: $35.00) as a Derby horse and I’m not going to drop off. He’s been held by Western Empire his past three since winning his maiden. The problem for him is that those races were sit/sprints. I just hope this becomes a proper 2400m contest, because his maiden win showed he appreciates a good tempo.

If this becomes another sit/sprint, 1 Western Empire (Bet Now: $1.30) may as well be a $1.10 chance. He will just be too good. He has had sit/sprints his past three and has been dominant each time. Tricky draw, but will find cover and I think the only way he can get beat is if this is a proper 2400m race and not a 600m dash.

10 Holyoake (Bet Now: $27.00) is the filly I want from the Oaks. I thought she was very good late after getting a fair way back in the run. Her late splits were some of the best of the race, so hopefully the inside gate is used to advantage and if indeed that can be the case, I think she’ll run a positive race at a big price.

Going the way of 8 Creator (Bet Now: $3.20) for the Gangemi camp. He’s had two runs for the stable and has got better. Latest run came two weeks ago over 1200m here when a closing second to Amasensus, his second run at the trip. Think he wants further, and he gets that here, so I’m in his corner.

6 Tommy Blue (Bet Now: $7.00) is a really good mare for Simon Miller that will put herself on speed and give her all. That was the case at Pinjarra over 1300m last start. She was there to be run down but she found under Pike and the champion hoop lifted her late when it mattered. She’ll look the winner. Last bit will test.

9 Dark Mission (Bet Now: $5.00) has the talent under the hood to give this a shake. This mare ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where she was back near last in the run and while she was never really a winning threat, I liked the way she finished her race. Whether she wants further, I’m not sure, but will be closing at the end.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Clairvoyance

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Kallaroo

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Flash Ducati

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 8, 9

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 4

Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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