10/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Scone, Scone Cup day

The two day Scone Carnival gets underway this Friday where it is Scone Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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The nominations looked as if this would be a strong maiden, but it doesn’t look great on paper. Still have to find the winner and I think it will be the first starter 2 Ice Shelf (Bet Now: $5.50), on debut for Kris Lees. This gelding has had three trials this prep in readiness for his debut and each time he has looked pretty good, the latest seeing him run second to stablemate Bellum, who won at Taree, so trial form reads okay and stable finds McEvoy for the debut.

10 Constanzia (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Maher/Eustace trained filly resuming. Made her debut at Muswellbrook back in August last year when wide with cover but battled away just fairly. Been given a good break and I have liked what I’ve seen from her in a couple of trials leading in. Market will be the guide as to how forward she is, but do have to respect the stable.

14 Applicant (Bet Now: $46.00) is an interesting runner. Paul Perry trains this son of Star Witness, who returns as a gelding after doing sweet nothing in seven career runs. Stable have had an okay run recently with their resuming runners and this bloke, now as a gelding, has trialled up okay on a couple of occasions. Seen worse $51 shots in what does look a tricky and perhaps suspect maiden.

8 Chanteresse (Bet Now: $3.80) is a daughter of Albrecht for James Cummings who has finished runner up in both career outings, both at Newcastle. Debut run saw her run second to the well performed Got Your Six before bumping into Merlinite where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but just felt the pinch late. I reckon with a bunny to chase, she’ll be more effective.

1 Cos I’m Good (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Stirling Osland trained three year old who is bursting to win a maiden. Was a few weeks between runs when racing in a maiden on Tamworth Cup Day where he had to do a bit of work in the run from the wide gate and that early burn probably beat him in the end when a narrow second. Has had good support in early betting and big tick is blinkers first time.

6 High Court (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Jeff Englebrecht trained galloper who had good market support when racing over 1280m at Muswellbrook but unfortunately for his fans, he got stuck wide no cover for the trip. Despite that, he stuck on really well in defeat behind Ecstatically. Draws gate one now, so should do no work from the gate and the claim for Clenton certainly helps.

Like 6 Sukwhinder (Bet Now: $4.40) here. Michael Costa has had good success at this Carnival previously and he brings this filly to Scone off the back of a pretty sharp debut win at Grafton where she showed good toe to lead them up at a decent clip, then kick away again and ran time relative to the day. Hard 1100m should be no issue for her, in an astute team, happy to be in her corner.

4 Longbottom (Bet Now: $1.85) looks hard to beat for Cav. Debuted with a pretty dominant win at Muswellbrook in what has turned out to be a really good form race. She then went to Eagle Farm where she was well supported and despite wandering about late, she was too good for a field which had depth to it. Back on her home track now, fresh legs, she clearly appeals as a leading chance.

Giving respect to 1 Spilt (Bet Now: $12.00) for Rod Northam. Tardy start was costly on debut at Muswellbrook before going to Dubbo last Sunday where he should have won. Just again, tardy away, giving away a start, had to duck and weave his way through the field, it was a bit of an ugly watch. He’s got the talent there, but now just has to put it all together now. If he does, he’s in the mix.

9 Think It Over (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented three year old for John Sargent. Loved the way he let down from the back to win first up at Goulburn before going to the Hawkesbury mile where he was very good in defeat from the back behind Lord Heron. That was his first run in a few weeks since the maiden win so would like to think there is plenty of room for improvement.

7 Pop Girl (Bet Now: $4.00) gets another chance for me. Was keen on her when she ran on the Kensington track on Easter Monday over 1400m but I just think the tempo was too hot for her and she was out of her comfort zone from a fair way out when fifth to Cuban Sizzle. Think she’ll take really good improvement from that and the trial leading into that run was outstanding.

1 Occupy (Bet Now: $8.00) is a former UK galloper for Kris Lees who made his Australian debut over 1400m at Newcastle a few weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run but closed off pretty well late behind Je Suis Tycoon, who ran well in a Highway last Saturday, so the form reads alright for this. Just depends where he gets to from the gate and whether or not he concedes a start.

Gee I think 12 Polhampton (Bet Now: $12.00) is worth having something on. Resumed at Warwick Farm without a trial and did look to parade as if she needed a trial. Despite that, she ran an absolute beauty against the track pattern for that meeting when fourth to Invictus Salute. Has since trialled last week at Hawkesbury and looked very good there, so she’s ready to go for mine.

2 Phaistos (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Helmet for James Cummings that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since January 4 at Cranbourne where he ran a close up second against the older horses over the mile. Been given a good break and looked to go about his business quite nicely in a recent Randwick trial over 1000m. He’ll likely opt for cover first up, but the form from the opening prep does read well.

I reckon back to 1100m will suit the Bjorn Baker trained 14 Glamarama (Bet Now: $14.00). Impressive debut winner over 1000m at Orange before going to the Bathurst 1200m where Greg Ryan gave the filly a peach from the gate and did everything bar get it home when second. Reckon back in trip will suit her and the form from both races has been solid enough. Winning chance with the right run.

May want a touch further but happy to be in the corner of the John Sargent trained 5 High Shine (Bet Now: $3.00), who made her Australian debut over 1300m at Warwick Farm where she was held up a touch on the turn but once she got clear, the turn of foot was there and she was most impressive, with a stack of improvement to come. If this was 1500m, absolute moral, but off that win, she has speed in the legs so perhaps remaining at 1300m could be okay.

There is plenty to like about the James Cummings trained 9 Sakura (Bet Now: $4.50). Last two wins have come over 1200m at Kembla, and the last win was most impressive. Had to chase a genuine speed and seemingly was going nowhere for a couple of strides but picked up and really attacked the line late. Think up to 1300m on the bigger track will suit her and stable love to target this Carnival.

Third up from a break, 1 Nicco Lad (Bet Now: $4.50) should just about be ready to show his best. Both runs back from a spell have come at Warwick Farm and it’s been a rather ugly watch if you were on either time, with the three year old getting little to no luck in each run after seemingly being full of running. Should get clear air this time around and the trials leading up to the resumption were too good to ignore.

11 Salsonic (Bet Now: $26.00) on top for me in the Cup. He comes through a 1400m race at Randwick from three weeks ago where I thought his effort was very good. Once again, his racing pattern of getting out the back and rushing home brought him undone, but his late splits were once again. Strongly run mile, big track, hard fit now…gee the set up looks ideal for him to run well.

Up in trip will suit the Matty Smith trained 4 Fierce Impact (Bet Now: $3.40). Couldn’t pick his feet up fresh in the Ajax before being freshened up and racing in the All Aged where he was far from disgraced behind Pierata despite being outclassed, with his late splits being quite good. Was down to run in the Hollindale last week, but not sure WFA is his go. Better suited here and is a leading chance.

Maybe one more run needed, but I did like the resumption of 3 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $8.00) at Randwick. That was over 1400m and he just found them a tad sharp fresh but his late splits were some of the best in the race. Was down to run last week at 1400m but was scratched and finds the mile second up, which I like, and stable is ticking over really nicely at the moment.

14 I Am Awesome (Bet Now: $12.00) is not without winning claims here. Trials and market said she’d need the run first up over 1350m at Wyong but you could make a little case that she should have fought the finish out. Just not sure she was 100% happy between runners on that tight track and was held up at times when third to High Rush. Big track, second up at 1400m, she’s a threat for sure.

12 Valree (Bet Now: $12.00) looks to be going really well at the moment for the Rod Northam stable. Won well at Muswellbrook three back before placing at her next two, the latest being in the Tamworth Cup where she was a bit keen in the run but chased hard all the way when third to Unbiased. Back on her home track now, where she loves racing at, and she can win here for sure.

10 Editors (Bet Now: $17.00) is a son of Street Cry for the Ross Stitt team who looks to be racing in near career best form at the moment, winning two on the bounce, the first win coming at Port Macquarie before going to Gosford where he was back nearer the inside before getting the split between runners and diving through to win impressively. 1400m on the big track looks ideal and is a definite threat.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 High Shine

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 9 Think It Over

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Salsonic

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 5, 12, 14

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 11

Leg Four: 4, 6, 10, 12, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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