10/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Farnley Stakes day

The Belmont Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Farnley Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres from the 1600m-400m; True for the remainder.

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Not much of a race this. I think firmer footing and a likely soft lead sees me lean towards 1 Sockoff (Bet Now: $2.00). She ran four weeks ago on a bottomless deck here and couldn’t pick her feet up late behind Ghost Who Walks, who is flying this time in. Firmer deck, gets the lead, claim, she’ll take beating.

2 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $4.40) can be an improver. Not sure the race shape was to his liking a fortnight back over 1200m here, just battling late despite getting a touch held up behind Trevern. Chris Parnham is back aboard and I do think back to 1000m is a big positive for him.

6 Ultimate Command (Bet Now: $12.00) is capable with her best. She was wide no cover last Wednesday here and couldn’t quite finish it off in a forgive run I thought behind Double Jeopardy in a race similar to this. She hasn’t done much since her 2YO days, but this race is lacking depth.

6 Tiffany Street (Bet Now: $2.50) is a talented filly for Dan Morton that resumes and confident she can make it 3/3 to start her career. She had two runs in the Autumn to start her career and each time she was quite dominant in the run to the line. Potentially a Champion Fillies candidate? Trial was sharp so confident she wins.

1 Man Crush (Bet Now: $6.00) is the class runner and that will carry him a long way. He resumes, having not raced since the Karrakatta when on speed and tiring late behind the best 3YO in Australia I think, Amelia’s Jewel. Resumes without a trial, but CJP booked tells me there is intent. Watch the market.

3 Swim Through (Bet Now: $31.00) would love this track to dry out because I don’t think he has handled the wet ground in both runs this time in, the latest being a smart one, Baby Paris. If he can find a firmer deck, I think he’ll run a much improved race at odds against this lot.

6 Real Grace (Bet Now: $5.50) gets another chance for me. Was really keen on her when she resumed here last Saturday but unfortunately, it was another barrier trial as she had no luck at all when seemingly full of running. Backing up isn’t a shock and like last week, she finds another thin race.

5 Enticing (Bet Now: $13.00) is also on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday here. She contested a race similar to this and battled on really well in defeat when third to Ginger Green and Alsephina, two handy animals. Think that form will hold up nicely for this.

3 Strathmore Rose (Bet Now: $11.00) is a query at a strong 1200m but a soft gate and a likely economical run helps her cause. She ran last Saturday as well where she was outside the speed and going comfortably it seemed. Clicked up and took the front but was nabbed late. I doubt she can win given the 1200m question mark, but a must for exotics.

Happy to stick with 5 Western Knight (Bet Now: $2.05). Was keen on him two weeks ago at this track/distance but he was ridden quite negatively by CJP I thought and the horse was clearly unlucky when a closing second, clocking the best late splits of the race by far. Love him up to 1400m and hard to beat with clear air.

3 Reign Of Fire (Bet Now: $3.90) has come back in really good order for Colin Webster. Strong winner three weeks back over 1200m here, sitting back in the run before coming with a well timed run under Dyson to win nicely, seemingly lapping up the wet conditions. Yet to prove himself at 1400m but every indication is that he’ll be fine.

1 Red Publisher (Bet Now: $19.00) has seen better days but he is first up and with these old stagers, they can pull out a run fresh. Last start was in the Esperance Cup where he failed to fire and although he resumes without a trial, he does get a claim for Dyson, so I could see him sneaking a first four spot at a big price.

3 Noble Born (Bet Now: $2.70) has done little wrong this time in for Simon Miller and given how well she is racing, I think she is your starting point. She spanked them at this track/distance last time, going at a solid clip in front and she just kept going, winning by a space. More depth here, but hard to knock the way she’s going.

6 Candlelight Supper (Bet Now: $5.00) deserve a crack at this level. Alan Matthews has this mare going super at the moment, looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Both wins have come here, winning the maiden two back before a dominant Class 1 victory. Tricky gate but she commands respect.

2 Power Of St George (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday at this track/distance where he got a mile back in the run in a race where those near the speed/fence dominated proceedings, so I want to be forgiving. Dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

3 Buster Bash (Bet Now: $2.00) on top. David Harrison trained gelding that was a tough winner here two weeks ago at this track/distance. Westriver Miracle was there to beat him but he found when required, fending off that horse for a game win. Similar race, I think he only has to hold his form to win again.

6 Westriver Miracle (Bet Now: $2.80) has done a super job this time in. He pushed Buster Bash all the way a fortnight back in the race mentioned above and looked the winner but the other horse just has a bit too much grit. He’ll be around the mark again and does get Chris Parnham.

5 Blinder (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who hasn’t won in a long time but is racing well. Ran third in the Buster Bash race mentioned above where he seemed to have every chance when presented but battled late when third. Not sure he wins, but a must for multiples.

5 State Of Power (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the one to beat. Simon Miller trained mare that led throughout two weeks ago at this track/distance, just getting the win over Cash Away, who won last Saturday, so the form has been ticked off and once again gets in nicely after the claim for Holly Watson, who is very good on front runners. She’ll do me.

6 Time Scale (Bet Now: $7.50) is a stablemate of State Of Power that resumes. She hasn’t raced since April 16 at Ascot where she led and was just plain to the eye behind Kia Ora Star, perhaps an end of prep run? Trial was solid enough and she has a strong record at the track/distance.

3 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $10.00) is sneaky flying. Just don’t think he’s a winning threat, but a first four contender, yes. Attempted to lead throughout last Saturday over 1300m and gave a sight but couldn’t quite finish it off. Reckon this is a prep run for something else, but he’s got the hard grounding to be strong late.

Provided the track isn’t too bad, good luck beating 2 Resortman (Bet Now: $3.00).  He loved the firmer deck two weeks ago in the Idyllic Prince and duly made a mess of them in a dominant display. He can be hit and miss but is clearly better on firmer tracks and is the best horse at around this level. Tricky gate, but he looks a bit too good.

7 Phanta comes (Bet Now: $3.40) back to 1400m after racing over the mile here three weeks back where he was on speed and looked to travek well. He gave a good kick but I reckon the mile sees him right out when fourth to Ginger Flyer. Back to 1400m, potentially a soft lead, he can bounce back.

1 True Attraction (Bet Now: $18.00) is likely on a Perth Cup path, potentially, so whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he is the clear class runner. He hasn’t raced since the Pinjarra Cup when producing an end of prep run when down the track. Loves Belmont and two trials to get ready, so watch the market.

8 Advanced (Bet Now: $2.45) gets another chance. Like most, I was keen on him when he resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance but given the strong market support, I thought he was quite plain after getting every chance behind the speed, finishing third. Parnham jumps back aboard and he did click with the horse last prep, so I am hoping the jockey switch can bring improvement.

2 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $7.50) is in the mix if he runs up to last start. Rode him warm two back and it backfired. They then rode him with a sit two weeks ago and he rocketed late behind Vane Tempest, finishing third in a strong effort. If he runs up to that, he can win this.

6 Holy Ghost (Bet Now: $13.00) looks better suited at this level. He ran last Saturday in a strong 72 and just lacked the class to go with them late, finishing midfield behind Mood Swings. Run prior behind Mercanto was strong and off that, he is regarded as a knockout chance IMO.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Resortman

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 8 Advanced

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 6 Reak Grace

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 8

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