11/5/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Rogan Josh Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday for Rogan Josh Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Lost City (Bet Now: $3.00) for me in the opener. Team Williams trained filly that resumed here last Wednesday where she was near the speed throughout and she tried her guts out but couldn’t quite see it through, nabbed late by Born And Bread. Good improvement to come, small field, good racing style and this isn’t a deep race.

2 Ginnivan (Bet Now: $3.00) is a son of Universal Ruler that resumes for Jim Taylor. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 2 at Ascot when wide no cover on speed and that early burn just told late in the piece when down the track behind Golden Fighter. Trial to get ready was good and he becomes dangerous if he finds the front.

1 Barney’s World (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the big query. Luke Fernie trains this three year old, who resumed with a strong win at this track/distance before backing up a week later where the market said he had three legs and ran accordingly behind Brave Strike, pulling up lame post race. If he runs up to the first up effort, he can take this out.

2 Prized Recruit (Bet Now: $7.50) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Lou Luciani trained gelding that is on debut off the back of some encouraging trial work, the latest being a win over 400m at Lark Hill and albeit the margin was narrow, he moved quite nicely. Maps ideally, will be strong late and this isn’t a deep contest.

7 Lucky I Am (Bet Now: $4.20) is on debut for Jim Taylor and commands respect. This girl trialled a couple of weeks back at Lark Hill where he led throughout and was quite strong to the line in getting the job done. Looks to get a good run on speed and has had the grounding to run really well.

9 So Fab (Bet Now: $5.00) is a daughter of Sessions for Dion Luciani that is on debut. This girl is on debut off the back of a trial win at Belmont over 400m. Moved well, ran decent time and seemingly had something in the locker. Tricky draw, but I think will press forward and take catching.

4 Bread To Flirt (Bet Now: $9.50) is the way I am leaning. Team Gangemi trained mare that has been racing really well at the moment without winning, the latest being two weeks ago over 1000m here when back near last but worked home with real purpose late in the piece when third to City Angel. Like her back up to 1200m and with a more positive ride, she’ll take holding out.

1 Famous Jurney (Bet Now: $17.00) is dangerous if ridden with more intent. They rode with a sit when resuming over 1000m here three weeks ago and he ran well but was never really a threat behind Barney’s World. Think with a clean jump, he’ll land near the front and run a beauty.

3 Deetea (Bet Now: $8.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran here on Anzac Day where she was near the speed throughout and tried hard but found one better in Dance Boss. The dreaded Bar Plates go on, which is the big query with her, but off last run, she commands respect.

3 The Boss Lady (Bet Now: $2.25) is a beauty for Michael Lane and seems the straight bat option. She is 2/2 this time in, the latest being three weeks ago where she looked in a bit of trouble but thankfully Lane got clear air with her late, she drove hard and class came to the fore to win. Creeping up in the relative weights but she’s a beauty and hard to knock the way she’s returned.

2 Stormy Tawny (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Oratorio for Team Williams that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Dec 30 when an outstanding winner over 1400m at Pinjarra. 1100m is on the short side for her but she has quality, she’s trialled up really well leading in and will be stronger than most at the end.

4 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $21.00) is a knockout hope. He ran over 1000m here two weeks back when wide no cover on speed throughout and he tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite get there when third to Brave Strike. Think with a more economical run in transit this time around, he’ll be around the mark.

8 Happy As Larry (Bet Now: $8.50) on top. Paul Jordan trained three year old that has been strong in two runs back from a spell, really catching the eye fresh at Pinjarra before going to the mile here two weeks ago when spotting those in front a start and while he was never a threat, I didn’t mind his finale behind Fly With Caution. Hard to beat if he can use the inside gate to advantage.

2 Annihilator (Bet Now: $51.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order and commands respect. He resumed over 1500m at Albany where he got behind the speed and was keen in the run but he kept on and was pretty good in defeat behind Catch These Hands. Fitter and up to the mile, hard to beat with luck from the gate.

6 Miss Rockjoy (Bet Now: $16.00) is dangerous at a big price if he can get some form of control on speed. She attempted to lead throughout two weeks back here but she did too much work on speed and tired late to run last behind Fly With Caution. If she leads and gets a cheap furlong or two, she’s dangerous.

6 Pleasure Cruise (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a great bet here I feel. He resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance where he was a drifter in betting but gee he was stiff not to be right in the finish, getting badly held up when wanting to build the revs. Stays at 1200m, which I find interesting, but if he gets clear air this time around and time to wind into his work, he’ll launch at them late.

4 Becalotti (Bet Now: $5.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She has placed in both runs back from a spell, both at this track/distance. Latest was a fortnight back when ridden with a sit and she found the line strongly, but just found a couple better. Blinkers back on, good map, she appeals.

1 Cross Statement (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the leader and he’ll take running down. He ran behind Chollima, the race Becalotti contested, from a fortnight back. He led and copped heat on speed, just feeling the pinch late in the piece. If he leads and gets a cheap time of it mid race, he’ll take beating.

2 Here For Cheques (Bet Now: $4.60) is on top for me. Bernie Miller trained gelding that was a strong winner over the mile here last Wednesday, sitting on speed before being clicked up and away she went to win and win well. Up in trip should be fine, hard fit, kind map…appeals big time.

1 Allez Allez (Bet Now: $4.50) has come back in really good order for Michael Lane and rates highly. Loved the way he toughed it out then let down to win over the mile here a fortnight back, knuckling down with purpose when asked for an effort by Brad Parnham and lifted late to score. Tricky gate, but hard to knock how well he’s racing.

4 Sowar (Bet Now: $7.00) has a kind map in his corner and is suited back up in trip. He ran behind Allez Allez two weeks back when tucked in behind the speed and tried hard but just lacked the quality to go with them late in the piece, perhaps finding them a tad sharp. Back up in trip, maps to do no work, dangerous for sure.

1 Casino Seventeen…(Bet Now: $3.30) is weight stopping this train? You can argue yes, but this race is seriously lacking depth compared to recent runs and for mine, even with the weight, he wins. He ran in the Diggers Cup on Anzac Day over 1800m here and was good in defeat but was never really a winning threat behind Currimundi. That was his first run in a month so fitter and up to 2100m, class edge, happy to be in his corner.

7 Ghobella (Bet Now: $2.50) is a key threat. This mare ran third in the Diggers Cup on Anzac Day. She got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late in the piece when a close up third to Currimundi. She was a month between runs and has good room for improvement, plus can settle closer.

9 Tena Koutou (Bet Now: $41.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He didn’t disgrace himself at in the Narrogin Cup two back before going to the Diggers Cup when back in trip and failed to make up any real headway late in the piece behind Currimundi. Much better suited up in trip and can run an improved race at a big price.

2 Sisu Warrior (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the good thing on the program. Team Williams trained gelding that ran last Saturday at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run and spotted those in front a start but I loved the way he found the line late in the piece when second to the in form Oly’s Choice. No horse of that quality here IMO and all things equal, he wins.

3 Above The Peg (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing in a real purple patch for Simon Miller. This gelding was knocking on the door to win and it came three weeks ago at this track/distance, looking to be absolutely bolting in behind before angling clear and he was too sharp for them late in the piece. He’s found winning form, he can go on with it.

5 Speed Dream (Bet Now: $27.00) is a few weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Pinjarra where he was near the speed throughout and was there to win but he just found them a bit sharp late in the piece when fourth to the in form Forest War. Hard fit now and up to 1400m, I am not dismissing him as a knockout hope.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Sisu Warrior

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Casino Seventeen

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 Pleasure Cruise

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2

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