12/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Gold Coast, Magic Millions day

One of the bigger race days in Queensland comes around this Saturday at the Gold Coast where it is Magic Millions Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 1.5 metres from the 1000m-400m; True for the remainder.

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Really, really strong maiden. I’ll back two runners in this race, starting with 11 Terminology (Bet Now: $2.25). The WaterBott team trains this filly, who has been a bit hit and miss at times but recently has raced more consistently. Was a month between runs when contesting the Gosford Guineas last time and she stuck on very well behind a dominant winner in Military Zone. Should take good improvement from that, will land on speed and be hard to run down.

2 Altair (Bet Now: $7.00) looks the key threat. Qatar Bloodstock gelding for Chris Waller who is first up. He hasn’t raced since a maiden in early October when running third to subsequent Stakes winner Diplomatico. The overall form around him reads very well and he has looked outstanding in a couple of trials. Looks ready to go first up for mine.

1 Rock (Bet Now: $9.00) is a son of Pierro for Team Hawkes that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since August 31 where he made his debut at Wyong where he looked a little lost around the tight track but once balanced up he was good late when second to Rectitude. Comes here with one trial under the belt but was pushed out and responded well to win the trial. Stable have a good record in this race.

Cheering for a local win in the shape of 3 Stanley Park (Bet Now: $4.80) for Toby Edmonds. Ran over 1400m at the Sunny Coast last time and he always looked in control and I think the half length margin flattered his rivals. 1400m sees him right out for mine so back to 1200m on his home track looks ideal. Better suited with a bunny to chase also so hopefully gets cover and something in front to run down.

11 Miss Toorak Flyer (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Jason Warren trained mare who is low flying at the moment. Resumed with an electric win from the back at Cranbourne before going to Randwick where she showed a nice turn of foot and looked home but Deprive got the split and finished best, and he has franked the form since. She’s a sharp mare but only has short burst so she’ll need to be cuddled and saved.

19 Not Surprising (Bet Now: $31.00) could run a race at odds with the right run in transit. Looked in need of the run first up at Scone before going to this track/distance where she attempted to lead all the way, not her normal pattern, and she fought on well when third to Unique Magic, who is a handy mare. If this girl can get a soft trip off the pace, she could fill a minor spot.

15 Tokoriki Lad (Bet Now: $10.00) for me. Tony Gollan trains this gelding, who was good without luck in town in the first two runs this time in but dropped back to the provincials over 1400m here a fortnight ago and his class was too much for them, winning impressively. The talent has been there since day one and hopefully that last start will do his confidence the world of good.

4 Mishani Bullitt (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented four year old for Les Kelly who is four weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m at Doomben where he didn’t get much luck in the straight and clearly should have finished closer when fifth to Impregnable, beaten 1.5L. Runner up Stanley Park franked that form, he’s on his home track and his second up record is solid enough.

2 Fit For Purpose (Bet Now: $15.00) is one of the class runners of the field and drops a fair bit in depth after resuming in the Falvelon where he got back to near last and couldn’t come on behind Fiery Heights, but the horse was dominated by those in front and he had no chance. Really good second up record, has run well at the Gold Coast and he can certainly win this if he’s anywhere near right.

This race is always tricky to sort out but I think each way you can’t go wrong backing 2 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $10.00). He comes through the Summer Cup at Randwick where he was around a month between runs and ran well in defeat I thought when fourth to Fierce Impact. As he’s getting older, the staying trips seem more to his liking and hopefully he gets a dry track.

4 Tumultuous (Bet Now: $3.70) won this race last year and I reckon he’s ticking over really nicely to defend his title. He ran in the Shoot Out at Doomben a fortnight ago and was very one paced but his last 100m he surged hard and just missed out on picking up all the way winner Tally. Extra 200m and bigger track looks ideal for him and I think there is more upside to come.

It would be a great training performance from Barry Lockwood if 14 Surprise Bullet (Bet Now: $12.00) could get the job done. This bloke landed some big bets when getting the job done over the Eagle Farm mile last time, aided by a lovely steer from Brad Stewart, diving through nearer the inside and proving too good. The 2200m should be okay. Okay this soon into a prep? Time will tell.

Houtzen does look the obvious but I can’t back her at the odds on offer, so each way, 2 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $12.00) will do me. He’s really yet to run a bad race since joining John O’Shea and appears ready to rock and roll for this. Ran at Flemington during Cup Week where he looked home when Tye pushed the button but was bloused on the peg by Thermal Current. The Canterbury trial looked outstanding, bomb fresh horse and the speed in front will be hot, so he’ll get his chance.

3 Houtzen (Bet Now: $1.75) is the horse to beat on form, clearly. If she gets a good run near the speed, she’ll probably win, but could I take the short odds? No. She comes here off the back of a brilliant all the way win in the Bribie, and smashed the track record in the process. Her Melbourne Spring was desperately unlucky and she deserves a big race success. I think she gets a great chance here.

9 Irish Constabulary (Bet Now: $27.00) is an absolute beauty for the Symons/Laxon stable. Rarely runs a bad race but seems to have gone to a new level this time in. Closed off alright behind Houtzen in the Bribie before a fast finishing second to Fiery Heights in the Falvelon. He’ll get back from the wide gate, appreciate the brutal speed and have last look at them.

Class to come to the fore via 1 Invincibella (Bet Now: $3.60). On face value and first look in the Nudgee, I was really disappointed with her effort where she got back and didn’t really come on, but when they’re running home in 33.6, she really had no chance. She’s a Group l class mare at her best, and if she can sit closer in the run, I’m confident she can make it two straight in this race.

9 Platinum Angel (Bet Now: $17.00) is a quality Darren Weir mare who can run well here for sure. Arguably should have won two back in the City Of Marion at Morphettville but had no luck. She then went to the Christmas Stakes at Caulfield and was solid late behind stablemate Native Soldier, but was then found to have pulled up lame. If she’s recovered 100% from that, which I assume she has, she showed in the Spring she’s got the quality.

Don’t underestimate 12 Sasso Corbaro (Bet Now: $20.00). She didn’t run a bad race in the Guineas last year behind Pierata and appears spot on for 2019. Resumed at the Sunny Coast on Boxing Day where she looked a good thing and under a confident ride from Fradd, her class was too much and she was a strong winner. Confident she can be around the mark with the right run.

For mine, it’s either an 8 Outback Barbie (Bet Now: $2.30) win or it’ll be a complete wipeout for punters. I think with Native Soldier out, she’s the best horse in the race, by a few lengths, and has been specifically set for this race after a short Sydney Spring. Forget the Vo Rogue run last time. Just got too far back and was never really in clear air at any stage to build the revs. Hopefully that can eventuate here and she can showcase her brilliance.

Always have to be wary of Team Snowden in big races, so I’m respecting 3 Bondi (Bet Now: $10.00). The phrase ‘Being set for a Grand Final’ is overused in racing, but when it comes to the Snowden stable, it’s 100% on the money. Time and time again we see them fire third up into the big dance with their runners. Bondi resumed in the Wyong Magic Millions and was more than sound before going to Randwick where he surprisingly led and just tired late. Hopefully with a sit, he’ll be far more effective.

They should go quick in front, so one horse who will be suited by that is 12 Plumaro (Bet Now: $35.00). Two things she needs in her races- Clear air and a tempo. She got that a few runs ago when winning and hasn’t got that since. She’ll be flashing home late, probably a place only chance given the barrier and start she’ll concede, but she can motor home that’s for sure.

There are three horses I want to back here. 8 Exhilarates (Bet Now: $4.80) is the horse with the sense of timing ala Sunlight last year. She got her way into the field after winning here last Saturday. Not sure she beat much overall, but it was the manner in which she put them away. It was pretty much hands and heels from McEvoy and the time she ran was very solid relative to the day. She might be finally living up to the hype from before her debut.

4 Dubious (Bet Now: $4.80) has to be respected. He’s the Breeders Plate winner and every year that form stands up. The negative is that it really hasn’t stood up this season, but he did score a sharp win first up at Eagle Farm and ran time. Just needs to stretch his brilliance to 1200m but there is no signs suggesting he won’t handle it and he gets the lum draw.

14 Movie Role (Bet Now: $15.00) could be the knockout at odds. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this filly, who debuted down the straight behind Yes Yes Yes and was sound before going to Randwick a fortnight ago where she got a lovely run nearer the inside before getting the split and showing a nice turn of foot to win, beating Hightail, who franked that form last Saturday. Looks a filly with real upside and I think she’ll run well.

Hoping the Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle can come to the fore via their tough galloper 2 Arbeitsam (Bet Now: $4.20). He resumes for the WaterBott stable after a solid enough Spring campaign, which ended in the Craven Plate when a close up fourth to noted swimmer Moss ‘N’ Dale on Everest Day. He’s had two trials to prepare and has been pushed out but responded. He’s a tough animal to get past when on speed and he did run a game second in this race last year, in what looked a harder edition.

5 Sambro (Bet Now: $6.50) has to be respected. Chris Waller trains this bloke, who was set for the Villiers last time and he was one of the lone survivors of those near the speed, which was fast, when fourth to Sky Boy. What I will say is that the form out of the Villiers has been suspect, but he’s too good of a horse and that was a hard mile so back to 1400m looks ideal.

The local galloper 11 Cadogan (Bet Now: $7.50) is in with a definite chance. This bloke has really turned his career around since joining Toby Edmonds, formerly with Bjorn Baker. He ran over 1400m at Eagle Farm last time where he got a mile back in the run before Jackson Murphy found clear air with him on the turn and rounded them up very nicely to win. On his home track, hard fit, in form, he’ll give the locals a great sight I’m sure.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Invincibella

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Outback Barbie

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 15 Tokoriki Lad

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 14

Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 11, 13

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