12/3/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Natasha Stakes day

Ten races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Natasha Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Natasha Stakes

4 Sichern (Bet Now: $3.30) rises a bit in grade/depth, but he’s flying this time in and no reason why he can’t make it three on the bounce. Was bolting on speed at Belmont last time and once the button was pushed, away he went and he was dominant. Good test here, but confident he can measure up.

5 Garage Days (Bet Now: $10.00) doesn’t win out of turn but is an honest animal for Adam Durrant that should be around the mark once again. Ran last Thursday at Pinjarra and worked to the line pretty well from off the speed when third to a handy horse in Short Talk. He’ll be strong at the end.

3 Point Taken (Bet Now: $7.50) is a daughter of Demerit for Jim Taylor that resumes. This girl can be hit and miss at times but her best is certainly good enough to be dangerous. Hasn’t raced since the latter part of the Spring where she contested some handy races and was far from disgraced. Couple of trials to get ready, she’s a first four contender.

9 Loopy’s Baby (Bet Now: $3.10) on top in what looks a pretty even race for the babies. Debuted over this track/distance two weeks ago where she worked home quite strongly out wide when second to Penny On The Queen. That followed some nice trial work so I think she does have talent.

2 Capricorn Man (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t been too bad in two career outings for Team Casey. Both runs have come over 1000m here. On debut was good late behind Man Crush before being ridden a touch warm last start and stuck to the task pretty well when second to Aiyza. The rise to 1200m suits and is a key threat.

6 Cruise To Victory (Bet Now: $20.00) is several weeks between runs for Louise Newman since racing over 1000m here. He was back and wide with cover, never really coming on and was quite plain I thought in the straight. But he gets a good gate to use and had trialled well prior to the debut, so wouldn’t shock me to see him run well.

5 Acromantula (Bet Now: $3.70) will have to cop pressure in front but he’s a horse who can absorb pressure and still be strong late. Couldn’t find the front three weeks ago here but despite that, he battled on well when second to Panzdown. Gets a weight pull on that horse and I think maps well on speed from the gate.

1 Panzdown (Bet Now: $2.15) looks to be back with a bang. Wide no cover for a chunk of the race when resuming in that race mentioned above but he was trucking and once Carbery pushed the button, away he went and his class was there for all to see. Second up syndrome or he’ll bounce off it. Market will be the guide.

6 Kramden (Bet Now: $61.00) gets an okay map I feel, stalking Acromantula. Ran two weeks back when on speed and tiring late behind Miss Frost. I reckon with a sit, he’ll be more effective, so if that can eventuate here, while I doubt he wins, he can sneak a first four spot at a price.

1 Material Witness (Bet Now: $5.00) has a fair bit on these re class I feel and with the claim, the gate, gee she looks well placed. Did a very good job from the back two weeks ago here when closing off well behind Miss Frost. That sort of form just reads so well for what looks a thin 1MW as a whole.

6 State Of Power (Bet Now: $1.95) is a key threat for me. This girl is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she chased the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite get there when third to Spin The Knife. No horse of that quality here IMO and I think maps pretty well from the draw.

7 Klondike Kenny (Bet Now: $34.00) is getting on in years but does come through the Miss Frost race mentioned above. He was back near last in the run and never really a factor, but the finale was more than sound despite being clearly outclassed. Much better suited here and I’d include in wider exotics.

I do think 1 Trix Of The Trade (Bet Now: $1.65) is a very sharp 1200m-1400m horse. Anything further, it’s class that is getting him home, as well as soft trips in transit, and I think that will be the case once again. He had to work his guts out to win the Lex Piper two weeks ago but just got there. He has the runs on the board, class…I think he wins again.

4 Henchard (Bet Now: $5.00) is a horse with talent. Momentum and a strong finale saw him win two back at Belmont before going to the Lex Piper when on speed and fought on pretty well in defeat behind Trix Of The Trade. I reckon with a more conservative steer, he’ll be more effective.

10 Rokanori… (Bet Now: $8.50) how good is he? 2/2 to start his career, both starts and wins coming at this track. Ran over 1400m here at the midweeks where he was there to be run down but found under pressure and was strong late in winning. Harder here, but I think he can measure up.

1 Constant Dreaming (Bet Now: $1.80) looks the one to beat. She was there to be run down in the 1000 Guineas two weeks ago but she held them safely at bay, and on the line I thought she was just edging clear. She’ll have no drama with the extra and I think those behind her from the Guineas are going to struggle to turn the tables.

2 Fine Romance (Bet Now: $2.90) gets Winkers first time and this run and then the Oaks will be a good guide I feel to the training ability of Hayden Ballantyne. He’s been handed some lovely horses and this time of the year, the Cerise and White dominate these 3YO Classic races. Thought she was comfortably held in the Guineas but perhaps some tinkering with the gear will spark her up.

9 Broadway Brenda (Bet Now: $19.00) is the knockout chance. Stablemate of Constant Dreaming that comes here off the back of a maiden win at Pinjarra over the mile. It was only a narrow win, but she overcome the race shape and she got better as the race got deeper, so 2200m I think is idea and is in the right camp.

3 Tena Koutou (Bet Now: $3.80) is a horse with good talent I feel. Strong winner over the mile here four weeks ago and he got better as the race went on, proving too strong for Crescent City, who won last Saturday, so the form reads well, and he looks like a horse that wants the trip.

10 Without Reason (Bet Now: $15.00) has found winning form and I think with that, he can certainly hold it. He was specked at odds last Wednesday when racing here, sitting back in the run before getting a drag into the race and launched late to win. He’ll be strong at the end here.

11 Melarab (Bet Now: $41.00) should be suited up in trip. Fred Kersley trained gelding that resumed over the mile at Pinjarra where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Indominus. Might want one more, but has upside to come and proven at this level.

3 Picture Perfect (Bet Now: $23.00) has got more upside than most, he brings the strong form, the ideal rise in trip and gets in nicely after the claim. Just found them a bit rich in the Detonator last time behind True Attraction but that form stood up in the Bunbury Cup last Saturday. I think he’s definitely worth a throw at the stumps at a price.

6 Tri For Us (Bet Now: $2.70) is an Adam Durrant trained mare heading in the right direction. Looking to make it three on the bounce, her latest win coming over 1800m here a fortnight back when given a peach by Chris Parnham. 2100m is the query but should get a lovely run from the gate and is a mare in form.

4 Chili Is Hot (Bet Now: $6.50) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday in the Bunbury Cup where she got a mile out of her ground but her finale wasn’t too bad I thought. Much better suited in a race like this and with the claim for Holly Watson, she does get in quite well.

Bursting to win a race… a phrase that can get over used, but seriously, it applies to 4 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $2.70). He should have won two weeks ago over 1200m here but I just thought Parnham took a stride or two too long to get clear and it cost him the race. Like him up to 1400m and with clear air from the 400m mark, he’ll take holding out.

3 Cristal Dane (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Dion Luciani trained mare that is absolutely flying at the moment. Dominant win over this track/distance a fortnight back, with sustained speed from the front coming to the fore in an awesome display. She’ll lead again and look the winner for a fair chunk of the race.

6 Mini Winnie (Bet Now: $14.00) comes through the race mentioned above that Comes A Time contested, which was won by Kenyluck. He was wide with cover throughout and seemed to get a decent run in transit but failed to finish it off. Not sure he wins, but a first four contender if he brings his best.

If 2 How’s The Serenity (Bet Now: $1.80) brings anything of what she produced here last Saturday, then she wins again. It was a weaker field she beat last weekend, but the change up speed she produced was just something else and she spanked them. Off that, it’s hard to get away from her.

7 Reign Of Fire (Bet Now: $13.00) should be suited up to 1200m. Ran over 1000m here two weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, his finale was very good behind Miss Frost. He’s hard to catch, but a win isn’t far away.

5 Sassy Trader (Bet Now: $6.50) looks to be an improver. Ran over 1100m here last Saturday where he was back and chasing the speed but liked the way he finished his race off behind Express Time in a good effort. Like him up to 1200m and from the good draw, he’ll get a suck run.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 2 How’s The Serenity

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Material Witness

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Picture Perfect

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3, 6, 10, 11

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 10

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 7

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful