12/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Run To The Rose day

7.5A bumper nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, highlighted of course by a crack field lining up in the Run To The Rose (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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I just hope the tactics are more positive aboard 2 Korcho (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). Had a mini freshen up after a couple of dominant staying wins prior to racing here two weeks ago where he was ridden pretty much like it was a barrier trial so want to be totally forgiving of that effort. Fitter, up to 2400m, and hopefully a more positive steer, think he can bounce back.

3 Cadre Du Noir (Bet Now: $1.75 TOP ODDS) does look progressive, but opening odds on? Please. Visually, very impressive when winning at Sandown last time out, but in the fair dinkum stakes, he put five lengths on Austria, who couldn’t win midweek in Sydney, so not sure about the strength of the form, but the Maher/Eustace stable in 2000m+ races have a fab record, going around 22% last 12 months.

5 Birth Of Venus (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is an honest mare for Chris Waller that is deserving of a Saturday win, but is just finding it hard to breakthrough. Just went a bit keen in the Kiss The Bride race from three weeks ago at Randwick and that probably brought her undone when a narrow second. She’s going well. Just can’t crack it.

Think there’s a really good each way bet here in the shape of the Wayne Wilkes trained 9 Dulette (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS). He resumed in strong Benchmark race during the Taree Carnival where the market said he was ready to go. Just not sure he’s a horse who can sit/sprint. The two second up runs he has had for the stable, the first one he should have won and the second one, he bled in the Country Championship Qualifier. He’s hard to beat.

8 Yulong Base (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is one with upside and progression for Cody Morgan. Not sure he beat a great deal when winning a Highway here two weeks ago, but I liked the way he put them away under a lovely steer from Andrew Gibbons. Tricky draw, but has early speed and the Blinkers going back signals more intent.

If I like Dulette, I have to like 10 Harbouring (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). He resumed in the same race Dulette resumed in and I thought he closed off very well late in an eye catching resumption. Has run well in Highways previously and with the claim for an in form JVO, think he gets in pretty well and is another that represents good value.

3 Yonkers (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better bets on the program. Chris Waller trained galloper that I think is beautifully placed with the claim for Louise Day. He resumed in a very strong 88 at Randwick three weeks ago and I loved the way he worked home late when third to McCormack, producing some of the best late splits of the race. Tick over trial was very good and 88 back to 78, clearly the one to beat.

4 New King (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has to be given another chance. Impressive winner here two back before staying at around the mile three weeks back at Randwick and was ridden far too negatively against the race shape behind Frosty Rocks. Hopefully more intent is shown and if that indeed happens, he can bounce back for sure.

Good bit of confidence perhaps that Chris Waller scratched 9 Guise (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) from a much easier race at Canterbury on Wednesday in preference for this harder assignment. He ran here two weeks ago and looked home when she burst through. But the stablemate Word For Word for the bob in and held on. Not sure she wins, but is a must for multiples.

I think if 5 Masked Crusader (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) gets beat here, scrap Everest/Golden Eagle talk. He’s not up to that level. If connections think he is that good, he should be winning this and winning it convincingly. Just had too much to do here first up but worked to the line strongly when second to Varda. Fitter, firmer footing helps, but just a query on 1100m here.

1 Fiteuse (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) has a touch of class/quality about her. She resumes for John Thompson with I dare say some blacktype in mind for the Spring. She got blacktype in the Autumn with a win in the Denise’s Joy, so the talent is there, and she has trialled well leading. Just a matter of where she gets to in the run from the gate.

7 Hilo (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Lonhro for James Cummings that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since May 23 at Flemington when finding a heavy track and struggling somewhat behind Roccabascerana. He seems to save his best for when he has fresh legs and the two trials leading in indicate he’s ready to go.

Just staying at around this distance range is the knock with 7 Mo’unga (Bet Now: $2.60), but he is well and truly the best horse in the race. What he produced when winning first up at Newcastle was outstanding and straight away was sent to top of the betting for the Spring Champion. Hopefully he has enough speed in the legs to be okay staying at around this trip.

I think this race will be a guide as to whether or not 4 Overlord (Bet Now: $5.00) is a contender of pretender. I was keen on him first up in the Ming Dynasty here two weeks ago and yes, tempo was against and he was tardy away, but still expected a bit more. If he is going to be a Group l horse, think he has to be winning here.

5 Bazooka (Bet Now: $14.00) did have the race fitness under the belt, but he beat Overlord fair and square when they filled the placings behind Holyfield in the Ming Dynasty. He had a soft run on the fence and found the line pretty well, so a rise to 1500m should be fine and always have to respect the David Payne runners at a trip.

This isn’t a GF, it’s a lead up, so I’ll go with the colt that has race fitness, 5 North Pacific (Bet Now: $5.50). His two starts/wins this time in have simply been brilliant, especially the way he spanked them in the Up And Coming. There was talk that he’d go straight to the Golden Rose, so interesting he runs here, but gets gate one and J Mac.

1 Farnan (Bet Now: $2.15) is the #1 seed of the big boys. Could make a case that he should be unbeaten had it not been for an awful prep at the Gold Coast to get ready for the Magic Millions. Made amends with a commanding Sydney Autumn, culminating in a Slipper triumph. Has lit up the track in trials and Gai being Gai, she won’t hear of this horse getting beat.

The noise out of the Snowden camp is too positive to ignore when it comes to 2 King’s Legacy (Bet Now: $26.00). He took out the Sires and Champagne to establish himself as a top class colt. 1200m is short of his best, with his GF likely to be the Caulfield Guineas, but the stable are talking him up big time and it’s rare they do that.

If Regan can take advantage of gate one with 2 Niccanova (Bet Now: $11.00), gee I think he’ll run a beauty at odds. Comes through the Winx Stakes where he got a fair way back in the run but loved the way he found the line in defeat. Gate one, I hope, is used to advantage, and given the weight scale of the race, I think he’s really well in.

5 Funstar (Bet Now: $3.40) has the class/quality/brilliance to really put these away. Resumed in the Show County and I thought was just fair behind Roheryn, but she was first up and the tempo wasn’t hot. Think she’ll come right on from that and is one that steps up in trip, not coming back, plus J Mac sticks. Hard to beat.

8 Fender (Bet Now: $17.00) looks a Kosciuszko candidate but needs to keep proving himself so I find him a fascinating runner here. Resumed at Rosehill four weeks ago where he was well supported and under a lovely ride from Jason Collett, he was too tough and too good, again. Tick over trial was super and think he’s a one that can be included in multiples.

Best on the program here in 8 Fasika (Bet Now: $2.90). Joe Pride wants this mare to make a real statement re Everest, so he’ll have her ready to go to impress slot holders and I think she can take that next leap and become a Group l mare. Almost did that in the All Aged when third to Tofane in an outstanding effort. Trials have been super and the barrier draw has been very kind to her.

The trials of 5 Haut Brion Her (Bet Now: $6.50) have been too good to ignore despite the very sticky gate. Quality mare that resumes for Chris Waller, having not raced since the Blazer in the Spring of last year when bolting up. She’s been trialling like a Group l horse and would have been a serious, serious threat to Fasika had she drawn well. Just not sure from out there.

With Fasika holding such a big percentage of the market, there is a few mares here at very silly odds, and one I could easily speck to run a place, perhaps something small on the win as well, is 10 Evalina (Bet Now: $67.00). She resumed in the Toy Show and was a real eye catcher from the back behind Sweet Deal after being eased back from the wide gate. Has barrier one, so can sit much closer in the run and $61+ is silly for her.

With 1 Entente (Bet Now: $5.00) in the get out. Quality four year old for the WaterBott team that is second up, having resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago. Was wide no cover on speed for the trip and fought on bravely I thought behind Prime Candidate. Can take control this time around up in trip and drops to 78 from 88.

16 Kingshier (Bet Now: $4.40) is a progressive animal for Team Hawkes. Just a little worry about coming back to 1500m after racing over 1550m on the Kenso last time out. Took a bit of time to get into his work, but was strong late and impressive. Back to 1500m is the knock, but does get gate one and if he can hold the back of Entente, he’s hard to beat.

9 Orcein (Bet Now: $9.50) looks a touch of overs at nearly double figures. He’s a Rosehill specialist that pretty much only runs well here. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when just off the speed and held up at a vital stage before eventually getting clear and charging to just miss. He’s going well and is a knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Fasika

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Yonkers

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Dulette

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8

Leg Three: 8

Leg Four: 1, 16

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