13/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

Cranbourne will host a strong Saturday metro program this weekend for Cranbourne Cup Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position from the 1600m-1000m; Out three metres for the remainder.

Cranbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Cranbourne Cup

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Despite being a first starter, I think 12 You Ess Ess Are (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is one of the better bets on the card. Now it will say that she’s had just one jumpout, which came earlier this week when winning impressively, but she has two jumpouts when unnamed and moved very well there as well. The grounding is there to suggest this is a target race and for mine, this isn’t a strong race.

8 Greyt Mumma (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a Team Freedman filly having start one. She has had several jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest coming last week at Mornington when on speed and moving well when a narrow second. Stable finds Williams to steer and has early speed.

1 Belgian Black (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Tosen Stardom for Jack Laing that is on debut. He ran second in the jumpout here on Monday won by You Ess Ess Are when inside that filly on speed and he moved well enough in his own right, getting nabbed late. Not sure he beats her, but a first four threat.

2 Station One (Bet Now: $1.55 TOP ODDS) is the obvious threat. Impressive debut win here before backing up a few days later in the 1800m race mentioned above when leading and tiring late. Whether this is all too soon for him, not sure, but a soft lead with Williams steering, he can bounce back.

3 The Amazonian (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) seems to have no turn of foot so she will appreciate the rise to 2000m. Toughed it out best to win the maiden two back at Echuca over the mile. She then went to the Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day and was outclassed in a fast run race. Better placed here, so an improved showing is on the cards.

5 Toropeak (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is in with a shout at a price. Still a maiden, but at least he has okay wet track form and the 2000m should be fine. Ran earlier this week at Moe in a 2000m maiden and worked to the line fairly when a well held third. If this does become a slog, he is one who will plug on.

Wet track, below the minimum, and on wet ground, it points to 11 Xtra Gear (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) running well. Impressive maiden win three back at Geelong before a down the track effort in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, where the 1400m was too much. Then ran on Oaks Day and just found them a bit sharp. This looks more her go, and with only 51kg, I think she only runs well.

3 Jigsaw (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) has class and that will carry him a long way. Drops miles in grade/depth after contesting the Caulfield Sprint last start against the older horses when outclassed behind Oxley Road. This looks more his go and is very good on wet ground, so he can bounce back.

6 Chartres (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a Matt Laurie trained gelding that has shown ability on wet ground at Cranbourne from last prep so that won’t be an issue for him. Resumed a couple of weeks back at Mornington when backed with confidence late. Had a suck run near the speed and battled on well for third. He’ll run well here I think.

Back in trip could be a negative for 3 Real Sensation (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS), but the two big ticks to counter that is gate one to sit closer in the run, and the other is the significant jockey upgrade with Lane replacing Billy Egan. He just got too far back at Flemington last time behind Bermadez. Miles back in depth, if the gate is used to advantage, I think he only runs well.

4 Our Lone Star (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) might want further than 1500m, but he is a proven city performer and has upside to come. Just lacked change up speed fresh on Bendigo Cup Day but warmed to the task and was good late when third to Maybe The Best. Up in trip, fitter, both big ticks…just does he want further than 1500m?

10 Mister Me (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) will likely lead this field up and give cheek. On speed throughout last week at Pakenham. Gave a good kick under Frog but couldn’t quite see it out when third. He likes getting his toe in and on his home track, on speed, he’ll run a bold race I suspect.

One of the more ugly viewings of Cup Week was 6 April Rain (Bet Now: $1.95) on Cup Day. She should have won, comfortably. McEvoy slaughtered her on a day where the fence was the spot to be, he angled wider and just didn’t get clear air. She’s flying this girl and deserves a chance of luck. Gets her chance here.

10 Maybe The Best (Bet Now: $4.80) is a progressive mare for Team Freedman that has found winning form now and can go on with it. Ridden like the best horse in the race on Bendigo Cup Day and duly saluted, leading throughout and was dominant. Bit harder here, but she’ll measure up for sure and is hard to beat.

1 Force Of Will (Bet Now: $26.00) is a quality former Kiwi that has her first run for the Maher/Eustace camp. This girl hasn’t raced since the Gold Coast Bracelet when down the track and was a tired horse behind Grace And Harmony. Might be better suited over a bit further, but looks to have quality.

1 Blazejowski (Bet Now: $4.50) can suck you in with a sharp jumpout…and he’s sucked me in. Gee it was a sweet piece of him when winning an 800m jumpout here a couple of weeks ago in fast time, and did it with seemingly plenty in hand. Looks to be a stack of early speed, so hopefully he isn’t run off his legs, he’s within range and can finish over the top.

The set up here should also suit 2 Dexelation (Bet Now: $2.70). He got similar conditions on Cox Plate Day at the Valley and in a driving go, finished best after sitting behind a strong speed. Likely has to ease back from the gate, but the trainer/stable combo rarely misfire. Hard to beat.

7 Sir Kalahad (Bet Now: $7.00) will be out of trouble on speed, and if this track is suiting those near the front, with a drop of rain, he comes right into play. Been kept on the fresh side since beating one home in a field of five at Sale behind The Gauch. He’ll give cheek from the front.

11 Our Playboy (Bet Now: $2.80) is on the seven day back up for the Price/Kent camp after a strong win last Saturday at Flemington. He sat last in the run and wanted to lay in under pressure but as soon as he straightened up, he charged late and nailed Silent Sovereign on the peg. He’s got improvement to come and is hard to beat.

10 King Magnus (Bet Now: $8.00) has been up longer than Ron Jeremy but he’s an absolute beauty. He continually races at a good level and was excellent in defeat in the Cantala, just missing in a blanket finish when fifth to Superstorm. Limited subsequent form, but it’s been mixed from the Cantala. But hard fit, in form, home track advantage, he’s very likeable.

13 Don’t Doubt Dory (Bet Now: $11.00) lacks the class of some of these, but comes here in winning form and handles wet ground, plus is bred to swim. Lovely ride from Moloney saw him win the Peninsula Cup at Mornington and was impressive in getting the job done. Does no work from the draw, hard to beat.

3 Mankayan (Bet Now: $1.95) is bursting to win a race and he gets a great chance here. Was on speed throughout in the Hotham on Derby Day. Ridden a treat by Meech and looked home, but was nabbed near the peg by Great House, with a big gap to third. He’s got upside to come, lands in front and at Cranbourne, that’s no disadvantage.

8 Indiana Lily (Bet Now: $5.00) is a mare that is in super form at the moment for Shea Eden and I think does command respect. If this is a testing track, it won’t matter to her because she is hard fit and comes here off a slogging win on a bottomless track in the Kyneton Cup. Rise in trip no issue, Froggy sticks and rain won’t hurt.

4 Royal Crown (Bet Now: $16.00) loves to get his toe in and I think can be a big improver on a wet track. You go through his wet track form, earlier this year he wasn’t far off Grand Promenade, which clearly reads well. Too bad to be true on Cup Day, so on a wet track, he is getting a nod at a price.

To me, the fact that Richard Laming isn’t taking a claim with 1 The General (Bet Now: $4.00) and is going with Craig Williams tells me he’s bullish about this horse and his chances. Could have easily gone with a claim to get relief from the 62.5kg impost, but booking a leading senior jock is a good lead IMO, and the form around him suggests he’ll take beating here.

4 High N Dry (Bet Now: $7.00) has a good second up record and is hard to beat here. Resumed on Bendigo Cup Day over 1300m and really warmed to the task late from the back when second to Maybe The Best. Fitter, he looks hard to beat. Just depends if wants more now.

5 Naval Envoy (Bet Now: $6.00) is an absolute beauty. He attempted to lead throughout in the Subzero on Cup Day. Gave a really good kick under Froggy but couldn’t quite see it through when bloused late by Excelman, who would be odds on in a race like this. Lands on speed and will look the winner for a fair chunk.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 6 April Rain

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 12 You Ess Ess Are

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 11 Xtra Gear

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 10, 11, 13

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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