The Golden Slipper picture will take some shape this Saturday at Rosehill Gardens, where we see some of the better youngsters step out in the $250,000 Group ll Silver Slipper (1100m), while the three year olds tune up for the Randwick Guineas when they take their place in the $200,000 Group ll Hobartville Stakes (1400m), where we see El Roca and Dissident clash again, and also the Australian debut of highly promising kiwi youngster Atlente for Murray Baker.
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Race One (12:50) : Australian Turf Club Handicap (95) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Rail out at Rosehill means one thing- on pace horses will be awfully hard to run down, so that really just about gets Ecuador (Best Odds: $2.45) over the line here. He is a horse who waits for the others to get to him, then he kicks into gear, as he showed first up here a couple of weeks back. He had them comfortably beat, but he allowed them to get close. Should lead from the inside draw, dictate and win.
Big Danger: Was really hard not to be impressed by the booming finish and dominance of Target In Sight (Best Odds: $3.30) at Randwick last time out after being crunched in betting. He’d be favourite here if not for the top tip. Don’t think he can beat Ecuador, but still should run really well.
Roughie: Keith’s Legacy (Best Odds: $9.00) was disappointing in two runs during the Winter/Spring behind Boban and Strike The Stars respectively, both of which went on to perform at Group 1 level, more so Boban. He did look really good in a barrier trial behind Albrecht, so it’ll be interesting to see how he goes here.
$250 Ecuador Free Bet
Race Two (13:30) : Tab Rewards Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The racing pattern will be against him, but I have to stick solid with Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $9.50) . He almost got the money for us here a couple weeks ago at good odds. He was excellent, attempting to make ground near the inside, which was clearly the inferior going. Drawn to get plenty of cover, cherry ripe fitness wise…only query is the speed, but if they go hard enough, he’ll finish over the top of them.
Big Danger: Dream Choice (Best Odds: $3.00) beat Earnest Ernest in that race he contested, and he fair dinkum just bolted in. He has really found a new lease of racing life with Darren Smith at Newcastle, and despite creeping up in the weights, there is no reason why he can’t win again.
Roughie: Territory (Best Odds: $8.50) is racing so well at the moment, but just gets too far back in his races and generally finds one or two better on the day. Shouldn’t be too far away from the good draw, and I think that’s the reason why Nash may have been booked, to try and get this horse to be a touch closer.
$250 Earnest Ernest Free Bet
Race Three (14:10) : Millie Fox Stakes 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: $1.85 for Red Tracer (Best Odds: $1.70) is a gift. Best mare in Australia, absolute bomb fresh, trialled brilliantly last week, drawn well and is just so well in at the weights. With normal luck, she just wins.
Big Danger: Royal Descent (Best Odds: $5.00) was fantastic during the Spring without winning. Got flattened in the Turnbull, so she can be forgiven for that, then looked the winner 300m out in the Caulfield Cup, but didn’t quite go on with it. She does race well fresh and the small field will assist.
Roughie: Interesting runner here is Longport (Best Odds: $12.00), the former Patinack mare who is with Danny Bougoure. Had three runs for him during the Spring, winning during Cup Week before failing in the Railway. Comes here with no trial, but is another who runs well first up and has a touch of class and quality.
$250 Red Tracer Free Bet
Race Four (14:45) : Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Taking on Unencumbered (Best Odds: $3.70) first up here, so I’ll take him on. There hasn’t been one cent of money placed on Law to win this, drifting from $3 to as much as $5. Really find that hard to believe given how impressive he was first up at Randwick. He sort of reminds me of Pierro in the sense they want to win their races, they have the desire, that bulldog attitude. Not saying he’ll reach those heights, but he is a very smart youngster.
Big Danger: Was really taken by the debut win of Risen From Doubt (Best Odds: $4.20) down the Flemington straight during the Spring. He showed a really sharp turn of foot when let go and put the race beyond doubt very quickly. Went to the trials and won at Wyong nicely enough to suggest he can run a corker fresh.
Roughie: The track talk/mail is that Mossfun (Best Odds: $4.00) is absolutely flying and has done superb since her top first up win in the Widden. Must say, I don’t think she beat much there, but where there is smoke, there is fire, and the betting supports that.
$250 Unencumbered Free Bet
Race Five (15:20) : Parramatta Cup 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: I think Chris Waller has a future Group 1 stayer here in Junoob (Best Odds: $1.95), who has been oh so impressive in three runs this time in. Flashed home for second at Randwick first up, then charged at them late to win over the 2000m here, then raced over the 1900m here and was even more impressive, carrying 58kg. On the minimum, should have improvement left fitness wise, McDonald sticks…I think the $2 was generous.
Big Danger: Getting close to D-Day now for Carlton House (Best Odds: $6.50) . He has looked the goods in trackwork, exhibition gallops, barrier trials, but on race day, he has just been fair. He gets out to an ideal trip now and drops big time in depth. Class will carry him a long way towards victory here.
Roughie: Opinion (Best Odds: $34.00) had trialled well a couple of times prior to his fair first up run behind Ecuador, where the front runners walked in front and sprinted late, which obviously isn’t this blokes go. He can sneak a first four spot with luck in running and a more genuine tempo.
$250 Junoob Free Bet
Race Six (16:00) : Hobartville Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Cracking race for the three year olds. Got to stick with El Roca (Best Odds: $2.50) given he toyed with his rivals first up in the Eskimo Prince despite not appearing to be 100% comfortable on the wet track. Should only improve from that, the wide barrier is a concern, but Bowman (hopefully) should take care of that.
Big Danger: Bit surprised to see such a huge gap in betting between the top tip and Dissident (Best Odds: $7.00). Dissident looked hopeless on that track in the Eskimo Prince yet rallied all the way to run second. He is a proven Group 1 performer over this track/distance and Cassidy sticks. I’ll be backing El Roca, but definitely saving on Dissident at the price.
Roughie: Hooked (Best Odds: $51.00) looked superb in the yard prior to his fifth to El Roca. Expecting he’ll improve significantly from that outing and doesn’t mind the sting out of the track.
$250 El Roca Free Bet
Race Seven (16:40) : Irresistable Pools & Spas (80) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Barring the first starter down the bottom, any of these can win without being a shock and the betting says that with five horses equal favourite at $7. I’ll go with Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $7.50). Showed great promise early on, bolting in on debut before failing in Brisbane during the Winter. He was then sent to Melbourne for the Spring and was well supported in both outings, but was found wanting late. He has trialled twice for his return to racing, and has looked really good at each hitout.
Big Danger: I was expecting a bit more from Diamond Oasis (Best Odds: $6.50) when she resumed in the Rubiton, but she was just flat all the way behind Lankan Rupee. Isn’t badly in at the weights when you go through her form and it has the likes of Barbed, Lion Of Belfort and Notlistenin’tome. If she brings that form here, she just about wins.
Roughie: Got a lot of time for Polamore (Best Odds: $7.00), who resumes here. I thought he trialled just as well, if not a touch better, than Notlistenin’tome recently, and we know what that horse has done and what he did last week at Caulfield. Big watch.
$250 Cosmic Endeavour Free Bet
Race Eight (17:20) : Rosehill Gardens Handicap (75) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll be shocked if the winner doesn’t come from the first three. Tamariz (Best Odds: $4.20) has been very frustrating to me and most punters since he bolted in at Canterbury. He keeps grinding away, but just seems to find one or two better. Maps really well here I think, and Berry should be aggressive on the gelding and attempt to lead all the way at a solid clip, to keep this horse rolling along and keep up his momentum, which might be his go.
Big Danger: Forever Crazy (Best Odds: $6.50) just got held up for a couple of strides last week at Randwick and that probably ensured her defeat given she needs plenty of room to build up momentum to attack the line. She should be allowed to do that from the barrier she has got here, and she is absolutely flying at present.
Roughie: Punters launched into Black Jag (Best Odds: $7.50) last week at Warwick Farm, and they were duly rewarded when he outstayed his rivals late despite carrying topweight on a wet track. He goes much better on firm footing and Nash sticks with the horse. Hard to beat.
$250 Tamariz Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Five Number 6 Junoob (Best Odds: $1.95)
Next Best: Race Six Number 5 El Roca (Best Odds: $2.50)
Best Roughie: Race Two Number Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $9.50)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7
Leg Three: Field
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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