14/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, All Star Mile day

The second edition of the All Star Mile heads to Caulfield and the $5 Million contest is the clear highlight on a nine race card at the Heath on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Sunday Pray (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets another great chance. Got things to suit on speed at the Valley last time out and tried very hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when outgunned late by Seberate. Gets a good weight pull on that horse here, so he turns the tables on that horse and looks the leader again.

6 Rainbow Thief (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) is a hard fit/in form gelding for Michael Moroney who should prove to be a leading chance. Poor ride I thought from Mick Dee cost him the win two back at Pakenham before going to Sandown when sitting off a fast speed and proving strongest on the line in a well deserved confidence boost. That last run was 1500m so 1600m should be fine and he loves wet ground.

2 Snitzpeg (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t really done a great deal since the Darren Weir days but this isn’t the strongest of races. He resumed in the VOBIS Gold Eldorado at Wangaratta and while he was well held by Ashlor, he was far from disgraced in defeat. Williams on from an inside gate, he could be a sneaky chance at odds.

8 Clementina (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for me. Danny O’Brien trains this four year old mare, who comes to this off the back of a 2000m run at Flemington last Wednesday and really liked the way she finished her race off when fourth to Ulusaba. Up to 2400m looks perfect, stable is firing and she finds a very winnable race.

3 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Progressive four year old that has won three on the bounce, the latest coming over 2000m at Ballarat when somewhat ridden upside down near the speed but class got him home. Think he’s wanting more of a staying trip, and is bred to handle it, so keen to see how he goes.

9 Reflect The Stars (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a stablemate of Clementina who has the 2400m run under the belt. That came at Sandown where she lumped 59.5kg and worked to the line okay without really threatening behind Kentucky Tornado, who controlled things on speed and nothing from the back had a chance. Good weight relief and Willow on, she can improve.

Going the way of 2 Celestial Sol (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS), who is on debut for Chris Waller. Was formerly with Robbie Laing and trialled like a star at Cranbourne when spanking Hanseatic by five lengths. Now with Chris Waller and has had just one jumpout in readiness for this, which came on Feb 28 at Flemington when on speed and not knocked about. Hopefully they jump clean and let him run.

This looks the right level for 1 Destination (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). James Cummings colt that ran down the Flemington straight two weeks ago when on speed and battled away well in defeat behind Ilovemyself. Gets the perfect sit in the run, likely behind the back of Celestial Sol, and does have hard race fitness/experience on his side.

3 Wild Cherry Road (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Holy Roman Emperor filly for Dean Krongold that resumes. This girl debuted in the Ottawa on Cup Day and was outclassed behind Aryaaf. Been given a good break and loved the way she went on speed in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Has the early speed to overcome the tricky gate and be hard to beat.

7 Parmie (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat here for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. Just did a bit too much work on speed two back in the Vanity before going to the Tressady at Flemington against the older mares and was quite good in defeat I thought when fourth to a very much in form Sylvia’s Mother. Back to her own age, 1600m looks okay, hard fit and has versatility re racing pattern.

No idea what to make of 1 Thought Of That (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS). The VRC Derby favourite from last year resumed over 1400m at Ballarat against the older horses and really, I thought he was quite ordinary behind Write Your Name and expected much more even though 1400m is not his preferred distance. If he’s heading down the Derby path, he’d want to be improving big time here.

6 Euphorique (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a stablemate of Thought Of That who only comes here off a Colac maiden win but he does look progressive. That win did come with a month between runs and was strong to the line and through it in winning. He does no work from gate one and really, outside the classy runners, this race is thin, so he doesn’t have to be a star to be around the mark.

6 Inverloch (Bet Now: $5.50) has to be respected here I think. The map just looks so good for him that he can be dangerous at odds. Got things to suit on speed three weeks ago at Caulfield and gave a really good kick, only getting nabbed late by a good one in Aktau. He is a horse who loves to get his toe in, looks the leader and the wetter the better really so the forecast for raceday rain is ideal.

What do you do with 4 Secret Blaze? (Bet Now: $2.25) If you’re going off form, he should be $1.50 against these given he was wide no cover on a hot speed yet fought on so well to run second to subsequent Australian Cup winner Fifty Stars. If you can trust that run and that he’ll bounce off it, no betting, he wins. I’m just a bit on guard that the run could well have busted him.

8 Stars Of Carrum (Bet Now: $14.00) is a son of Fiorente who is doing a lap of honour around Victoria it seems. Was with Robbie Laing, then was sent to Michael Kent. Now that he’s taking a break, the four year old is now with Pat Carey, and we know he’s a good trainer with these progressive stayers, so keen to see this guy at 2000m with upside to come.

10 Excelida (Bet Now: $9.00) for me. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this three year old, who resumes after a mixed Spring prep. Far from disgraced in the Edward Manifold then went to Sandown and was good in the Twilight Glow. Been given a good break and loved the way she has gone about it in two Flemington jumpouts, with Olly steering each time. Good tick that he’s on for race day.

1 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $4.20) must be showing John Sadler something to declare hm as potentially the best horse he’s trained. He resumed in the Rubiton where he was well backed late and after leading, setting a strong tempo, he gave in rather quickly and was terrible. He’s clearly better than that, so giving him another chance.

7 Salome (Bet Now: $19.00) has been up a little while for the Maher/Eustace stable but continues to race very well. Latest run came three weeks ago on the Parks track at Morphettville when eased back from the wide gate for cover and working home strongly when third to Star Of Monsoon. Has decent form around her this time in and think she can run a positive race at odds.

Think 9 Melody Belle (Bet Now: $4.40) only runs well. Jamie Richards has had an unbelievable start to 2020 and I think his star mare can continue it here. She resumed in the Futurity three weeks ago where the tempo was clearly against her but she stayed on and was good in defeat behind Streets Of Avalon. Fitter, up to 1600m, more genuine tempo, she’ll take some beating.

Like most, I keep waiting for 11 Alligator Blood (Bet Now: $2.80) to come down, but he is just maintaining such a high level and really, he should be unbeaten given he didn’t see Super Seth blouse him in the Caulfield Guineas. Made amends in the Australian Guineas, leading throughout and bolting up. Both trainer and jockey believe he’s better ridden with a sit, and he gets a chance to prove them correct here.

7 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $13.00) is a quality four year old for Phillip Stokes that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since the Moonee Valley Cup where he was given every chance in the run but couldn’t get past the Aidan O’Brien stayer Hunting Horn. Think 1600m-2000m is his ideal distance range and knowing he’s been in the race for a while, the prep looks to have been ideal to launch into this first up.

2 Admiral’s Joker (Bet Now: $1.80) is a Kylie Vella trained galloper that is well placed here. I was keen on him running well in the Blamey but WFA and a brutally run 1600m just found him out in the end when third to Fifty Stars, who of course backed it up in the Australian Cup last Saturday. More suited here I feel and if he bounces off that run and not sook up, clearly hard to beat.

3 Gold Fields (Bet Now: $7.50) can be an improver here at odds. Logan McGill trained gelding that resumed over 1400m at Flemington two weeks ago where the tempo was clearly against him and while he was never really a winning threat, he kept finding and was really good late. He goes much better second up and up to the mile is a big tick.

9 Polanco (Bet Now: $9.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth for Shea Eden but this gelding is racing really well at the moment. Ran over 1400m at Flemington last Wednesday and surged strongly in the straight, just missing out on picking up Jumbo Ozaki. Was coming back from 1600m that day so back up to the mile, he’s a knockout chance.

3 Street Life (Bet Now: $34.00) is an absolute beauty for Karen Byrnes. Several weeks between runs since scoring a well deserved win at Gawler, getting a perfect sit just off the speed before angling clear and finishing best to score. No knock on him fresh at 1200m at this level and likely gets a good run off the pace again, proving strong at the end.

6 Leiter… (Bet Now: $4.40) is he back on track? Few weeks between runs since scoring over 1200m at the Valley and the win did have merit to it. He was tardy away, forced to sit wide, but his class came to the fore and was too good. He’s always promised to be a good horse and with that win under the belt, his confidence should be high.

A horse who looks silly odds is 4 Pure Scot (Bet Now: $27.00), who resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team. She has a touch of quality about her when she is right and looking at her previous first up runs, this is comfortably the easiest assignment she will face. Wasn’t asked for much in the Werribee trial, she won’t mind it if the rain comes and she’s so well in at the weights.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 8 Clementina

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Admiral’s Joker

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Excelida

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 9, 11

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 13

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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